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Takayuki Hiraoka

@takayukihir

Studying complex systems and network science. Postdoc at Aalto University. I oppose any violence against civilians and devastation of their lives. ๐ŸŒ https://sites.google.com/view/takayukihiraoka/

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31.10.2023
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Latest posts by Takayuki Hiraoka @takayukihir

"The Cyclops," painted by Odilon Redon, 1914. Via Wikipedia

"The Cyclops," painted by Odilon Redon, 1914. Via Wikipedia

The origin of our eyes over half a billion years ago is looking more and more weird--from a cyclops to four eyes to two. Here's my story (gift link): nyti.ms/4rzisQP

23.02.2026 16:38 ๐Ÿ‘ 137 ๐Ÿ” 35 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 3 ๐Ÿ“Œ 2
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Where should SocArXiv draw the AI line? A case that helps sort out the questions for an AI policy at SocArXiv.

From @philipncohen.com, a case for discussing our policy on AI-generated research.

22.02.2026 01:09 ๐Ÿ‘ 13 ๐Ÿ” 9 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 5
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Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions Reshape Network Immunization Outcomes Herd immunity is shaped not only by the infection capacity of a spreading epidemic or the contact structure of the hosting population, but also by how and under what circumstances individuals acquire ...

Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions Reshape Network Immunization Outcomes arxiv.org/abs/2602.17360

20.02.2026 19:07 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Antibody escape drives emergence of diverse spike haplotypes resembling variants of concern in persistent SARS-CoV-2 infections Snell et al. develop sequencing methodology to identify full-length spike haplotypes and show that persistent SARS-CoV-2 infections drive divergent haplotype emergence, accelerating viral evolution an...

This is finally out.

Very short take home. All the variation in spike that produced the immune escape characteristics of Omicron can occur in one single persistently infected individual over the period of a year.

This is why persistent infections matter

www.cell.com/cell-reports...

02.02.2026 16:09 ๐Ÿ‘ 81 ๐Ÿ” 43 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 3 ๐Ÿ“Œ 3
In Yan Xia's defence, the opponent Prof. Taha Yasseri makes observations on her thesis. Yan and the custos Mikko Kivelรค listen. The list of publications included in Yan's thesis "Understanding the (de)polarized social media" is shown on the screen.

In Yan Xia's defence, the opponent Prof. Taha Yasseri makes observations on her thesis. Yan and the custos Mikko Kivelรค listen. The list of publications included in Yan's thesis "Understanding the (de)polarized social media" is shown on the screen.

From left to right: the custos Prof. Mikko Kivelรค, the advisor Prof. Barbara Keller, the doctoral student Yan Xia, and the opponent Prof. Taha Yasseri, right after the defence.

From left to right: the custos Prof. Mikko Kivelรค, the advisor Prof. Barbara Keller, the doctoral student Yan Xia, and the opponent Prof. Taha Yasseri, right after the defence.

Silja Sormunen presents her thesis "Beyond critical points: Critical manifolds in self-organizing systems" in front of the opponent Prof. Anna Levina and the custos Prof. Jari Saramรคki. Visualization of a critical manifold is shown on the screen.

Silja Sormunen presents her thesis "Beyond critical points: Critical manifolds in self-organizing systems" in front of the opponent Prof. Anna Levina and the custos Prof. Jari Saramรคki. Visualization of a critical manifold is shown on the screen.

Silja Sormunen and the opponent Prof. Anna Levina have a discussion in front of the audience.

Silja Sormunen and the opponent Prof. Anna Levina have a discussion in front of the audience.

We had two very successful defences in our group this January. Huge congratulations to Dr Yan Xia @yanxxia.bsky.social and Dr Silja Sormunen!

31.01.2026 19:44 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Herd immunity and epidemic size in networks with vaccination homophily We study how the herd immunity threshold and the expected epidemic size depend on homophily with respect to vaccine adoption. We find that the presence of homophily considerably increases the critical...

Very cool paper! We've worked on a related problem (but only theoretically). In case it's of interest: doi.org/10.1103/Phys...

30.01.2026 14:23 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Computational Social Scientists in the Nordics, unite!
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ธ

The brand new Nordic Society for CSS welcomes all researchers and practitioners based in the Nordics. The Society will promote student mobility, events, and education initiatives.

Join for free: nosocss.org/join.html.

05.01.2026 07:57 ๐Ÿ‘ 87 ๐Ÿ” 48 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Homophily within and across groups - Nature Communications People tend to connect with similar others in different groups, shaping how ideas and diseases spread. The authors introduce a data-validated model that captures homophily across group sizes and show ...

What if birds of a feather flock together, but only at specific group sizes?
www.nature.com/articles/s41...

This is the focus of our new paper, now published in Nature Communications. We introduce a new network model and show how to model and measure homophily to incorporate group variations.

23.12.2025 21:10 ๐Ÿ‘ 13 ๐Ÿ” 4 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Late advertisement of our new pre-print:

Contact structure and population immunity shape the selective advantage of emerging variants www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...

27.11.2025 10:15 ๐Ÿ‘ 19 ๐Ÿ” 6 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

๐Ÿงต1/
A bit late to the party, but I want to introduce a pet project of mineโ€”and my first single-author paper! ๐ŸŽ‰

It tackles something that has quietly frustrated me for years: how we measure the similarity of two clusterings/community structures.

24.11.2025 20:58 ๐Ÿ‘ 8 ๐Ÿ” 3 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Spatiotemporal Activity-Driven Networks Temporal-network models have provided key insights into how time-varying connectivity shapes dynamical processes such as spreading. Among them, the activity-driven model is a widely used, analytically...

Spatiotemporal Activity-Driven Networks arxiv.org/abs/2511.15533

23.11.2025 09:23 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Latest out: Fairness in infectious disease modeling. Great collaboration with Yuhan Li, @ngozzi.bsky.social @mtizzoni.bsky.social www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...

14.11.2025 18:06 ๐Ÿ‘ 18 ๐Ÿ” 5 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Hierarchical organization of bursty trains in event sequences Temporal sequences of discrete events that describe natural and social processes are often driven by non-Poisson dynamics. In addition to a heavy-tailed interev

published pubs.aip.org/aip/cha/arti...

11.11.2025 14:03 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 2 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
CREx Complex Systems Research Exchange (CREx) is an online seminar series aimed at building an international research community in the interdisciplinary field of complex systems, very broadly defined. Our ...

The next seminar is scheduled for tomorrow (Nov 4) with Kashin Sugishita at the Institute of Science Tokyo, who will be talking about air transport networks. If you're interested, please sign up from sites.google.com/view/cxrex and you'll receive Zoom links and announcements for future seminars.

03.11.2025 10:13 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Our aim is to create opportunities to hear from early to mid-career researchers in the field of complex systems science (broadly defined) about their research. We've had 20 talks over the past two years. The seminar times are tailored to people in East Asia, but everyone is welcome to attend.

03.11.2025 10:13 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Home page of the Complex Systems Research Exchange website. It reads:

Complex Systems Research Exchange (CREx) is an online seminar series aimed at building an international research community in the interdisciplinary field of complex systems, very broadly defined. Our focus is on creating opportunities to hear from early to mid-career researchers about their research, while also serving as a platform for networking and collaboration. We are open to a wide range of research areas including network science, nonlinear dynamics, dynamical systems, computational social science, science of science, machine learning and AI, data science, urban science and human mobility, mathematical biology and ecology, neuroscience, and more. 

Please subscribe to the mailing list to receive announcements of upcoming seminars. The Zoom link for each seminar will be sent to the mailing list shortly before the seminar. 

Please reach out to organizers if you are interested in giving a presentation yourself or know someone who would be interested. This seminar series is run on a volunteer basis and is currently organized without funding.

Organizers: Jeehye Choi, Takayuki Hiraoka, Inho Hong, Hyewon Kim, Kazuki Nakajima, Ayumi Ozawa, Taekho You

Home page of the Complex Systems Research Exchange website. It reads: Complex Systems Research Exchange (CREx) is an online seminar series aimed at building an international research community in the interdisciplinary field of complex systems, very broadly defined. Our focus is on creating opportunities to hear from early to mid-career researchers about their research, while also serving as a platform for networking and collaboration. We are open to a wide range of research areas including network science, nonlinear dynamics, dynamical systems, computational social science, science of science, machine learning and AI, data science, urban science and human mobility, mathematical biology and ecology, neuroscience, and more. Please subscribe to the mailing list to receive announcements of upcoming seminars. The Zoom link for each seminar will be sent to the mailing list shortly before the seminar. Please reach out to organizers if you are interested in giving a presentation yourself or know someone who would be interested. This seminar series is run on a volunteer basis and is currently organized without funding. Organizers: Jeehye Choi, Takayuki Hiraoka, Inho Hong, Hyewon Kim, Kazuki Nakajima, Ayumi Ozawa, Taekho You

A semi-regular reminder: My colleagues and I are running an interdisciplinary online seminar series called Complex Systems Research Exchange (CREx๐Ÿฆ–).
sites.google.com/view/cxrex

03.11.2025 10:13 ๐Ÿ‘ 6 ๐Ÿ” 2 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Illustration of the Matthew effect and the early-career setback effect. An academic, say Alice, first applies for early-career funding in 2015. She received early-career funding, and goes on to reapply for later-career funding in 2020. According to the Matthew effect, the chances of Alice receiving later-career funding is higher when she received early-career funding. Alice showed a high Mean Field Citation Rate (MFCR) before receiving her early-career funding, and similarly a high MFCR in between the early-career and later-career applications. According to the early-career setback effect, had she instead not received funding, her "Between" MFCR would have been higher. We not only study the "Between" MFCR, we also study the MFCR after the early-career application ("Post (early)") and after the later-career application ("Post (later)").

Illustration of the Matthew effect and the early-career setback effect. An academic, say Alice, first applies for early-career funding in 2015. She received early-career funding, and goes on to reapply for later-career funding in 2020. According to the Matthew effect, the chances of Alice receiving later-career funding is higher when she received early-career funding. Alice showed a high Mean Field Citation Rate (MFCR) before receiving her early-career funding, and similarly a high MFCR in between the early-career and later-career applications. According to the early-career setback effect, had she instead not received funding, her "Between" MFCR would have been higher. We not only study the "Between" MFCR, we also study the MFCR after the early-career application ("Post (early)") and after the later-career application ("Post (later)").

๐Ÿ“ข New reviewed preprint, published by @elife.bsky.social at doi.org/10.7554/eLif.... We study two effects in science funding across 14 different funding programmes from 6 research funders across Europe and North America: (1) The Matthew effect; and (2) and the early-career setback effect.

๐Ÿงต1/8

15.10.2025 08:56 ๐Ÿ‘ 17 ๐Ÿ” 10 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 2
Open postdoctoral and doctoral positions to work on polarization and mental health | Aalto University You will be working in the research group of one of the PIs of the projects, but in collaboration with the others. The PIs are Talayeh Aledavood, Juhi Kulshrestha, and Mikko Kivelรค.

Reminder: Last chance to apply for our postdoc positions in polarisation + mental well-being: www.aalto.fi/en/open-posi...

10.10.2025 19:49 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 5 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

There are a few words that are clearly mispronounced, and the articulation is sometimes off. It also said that the presentation is by โ€œProfessor Kimโ€. But overall, itโ€™s quite impressive how naturally it imitates a podcast-like conversation.

21.09.2025 08:56 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Equity in science is a beautiful lie โ€” and Iโ€™m done pretending Science isnโ€™t really moving towards equity; institutions are just perfecting the appearance of equity. We need to build an alternative system.

Science isnโ€™t really moving towards equity; institutions are just perfecting the appearance of equity. We need to build an alternative system, says Dolors Armenteras

go.nature.com/4nzGhp9

16.09.2025 17:01 ๐Ÿ‘ 40 ๐Ÿ” 15 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2 ๐Ÿ“Œ 3

We are hiring multiple PhD and postdocs for two newly funded projects at the intersection of mental health and political polarization atย the CS Dept at Aalto, Finland. The PIs are Juhi Kulshrestha, Talayeh Aledavood, and Mikko Kivelรค.

Full call text and link to apply:ย www.aalto.fi/en/open-posi...

17.09.2025 10:22 ๐Ÿ‘ 8 ๐Ÿ” 5 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
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Celebrating the publication of our big collaborative spatial-social meta-analysis of density-dependent transmission effects, out now in Nature Eco Evo! doi.org/10.1038/s415... (or rdcu.be/eD6eB)

08.09.2025 14:53 ๐Ÿ‘ 45 ๐Ÿ” 22 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 3

Who knows, a conference in B_looming_ton might also be looming closer than you think๐Ÿ˜‚

07.09.2025 06:33 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Interesting that every conference in 2026 takes place in a city called "B...ton" in a rather small corner of the world.

06.09.2025 15:15 ๐Ÿ‘ 5 ๐Ÿ” 2 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
A world map showing the locations of cities that hosted/will host international scientific conferences in 2025 and 2026. NetSci 2025 Maastricht, IC2S2 2025 Norkkรถping, and CCS 2025 Siena are on the left-hand side, while NetSci 2026 Boston, IC2S2 2026 Burlington, and CCS 2026 Binghamton are close together on the right-hand side.

A world map showing the locations of cities that hosted/will host international scientific conferences in 2025 and 2026. NetSci 2025 Maastricht, IC2S2 2025 Norkkรถping, and CCS 2025 Siena are on the left-hand side, while NetSci 2026 Boston, IC2S2 2026 Burlington, and CCS 2026 Binghamton are close together on the right-hand side.

06.09.2025 15:13 ๐Ÿ‘ 7 ๐Ÿ” 3 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Modeling resource consumption in the US air transportation system via minimum-cost percolation - Nature Communications Percolation frameworks have been used to characterize the robustness of infrastructural networks. Here, authors introduce a percolation-based framework to study resource consumption and network effect...

Q: How are resources consumed in transportation networks, and how does this shape the overall functioning of the system?

We introduce the minimum-cost percolation framework and apply it to the U.S. air transportation system using publicly available data.

๐Ÿ”— www.nature.com/articles/s41...

29.08.2025 19:43 ๐Ÿ‘ 6 ๐Ÿ” 5 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

We show that this approach is effective for citation networks, for which we would typically want the effect of publication dates to be discounted. It can be applied to other contexts too. Project led by Hasti Narimanzadeh and done in collaboration with Mikko Kivelรค @bolozna.bsky.social

29.08.2025 17:39 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Block-corrected modularity for community detection Unknown node attributes in complex networks may introduce community structures that are important to distinguish from those driven by known attributes. We propose a block-corrected modularity that dis...

Our paper about discounting the influence of node attributes from detected communities in networks is out in Physical Review E!
journals.aps.org/pre/abstract...

29.08.2025 17:39 ๐Ÿ‘ 10 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Hierarchical organization of bursty trains in event sequences Temporal sequences of discrete events that describe natural and social processes are often driven by non-Poisson dynamics. In addition to a heavy-tailed interevent time distribution, which primarily c...

Happy to share this long-overdue project! We found that many real-world event sequences follow a surprisingly similar hierarchically structured pattern, and that multi-timescale memory mechanisms can explain this pattern. Feedback welcome!
arxiv.org/abs/2508.18281

27.08.2025 06:40 ๐Ÿ‘ 8 ๐Ÿ” 4 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Hierarchical organization of bursty trains in event sequences Temporal sequences of discrete events that describe natural and social processes are often driven by non-Poisson dynamics. In addition to a heavy-tailed interevent time distribution, which primarily c...

Our new preprint with @takayukihir.bsky.social is out in arXiv: Takayuki Hiraokaโ€ฌ and Hang-Hyun Jo, Hierarchical organization of bursty trains in event sequences, arxiv.org/abs/2508.18281

27.08.2025 01:05 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 2 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1