Markets Replica

Does this assume AI and humanoid robots will do most of the work by 2050?

A chart in three parts showing data on child mortality to make the points that "The world is awful. The world is much better. The world can be much better. All three statements are true at the same time."

The world is awful. The world is much better. The world can be much better.

All three statements are true at the same time. Understanding this is key to solving big global problems.

We believe data & research can help us understand both the problems we face & the progress that’s possible. 🧵

#1029 J. Doyne Farmer - Making Sense of Chaos: A Better Economics for a Better World YouTube video by The Dissenter

I spoke to Ricardo Lopes for The Dissenter about Complexity Economics and a range of issues from business cycles, simulating the economy, financial crises, to how we can solve climate change, and whether we can tackle inequality.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0Vf...

Accounting for those going forward should give us our dynamic model.
Layer in the environment, supply chain dynamics and the production mechanisms inside the firms and you have basically a digital twin of the world. Not easy, but possible!

But this gives a static image of the economy at a single point (or period) in the past. Another important component, is how the agents that are the firms/households decision makers and government respond to their current cash flow in future iterations.

Building an digital twin of the global economy is basically an accounting exercise that tangles all markets and supply chains. Inside each Sanky chart its basically the production engine of a firm and at the ends we meet the markets.

In these Sankey charts its easy to see how money flows from various sources of revenue to expenses. Now imagine at those ends we can connect all other households/ firms where one's income is the other's expense and vice versa. Voila, now you have a cash flow consistent model of the entire economy!

💡 A market outlook document soon becomes outdated after publication compared to a live agent based model of the economy that gets updated nightly and is available through an API.

😂

What is an Agent-Based Model of the economy? 🤔

Here is a one pager:
www.marketsreplica.com/agent-based-...

Making sense of chaos - shaping economics for a better world I Doyne Farmer I RSA REPLAY : theRSA.org : Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming : Internet Archive Accelerating technology and global interconnections hold more promise – and more peril – than any other time in human history. How can we shape an economy...

archive.org/details/rsa-...

This is an excellent book by one of the pioneers of complexity economics Doyne Farmer. @doynefarmer.bsky.social

www.penguin.co.uk/books/284357...

Oh, how do people wash solar panels at scale?

The government takes millions and billions of loans. The interest rate of these loans are determined by the market but influenced heavily by the analysis done by the rating agencies, world bank, IMF, etc.

It is surprising how superficial, outdated and shallow these rankings are...

Generative Agent Simulations of 1,000 People The promise of human behavioral simulation--general-purpose computational agents that replicate human behavior across domains--could enable broad applications in policymaking and social science. We pr...

If AI agents can mimic decision making of various humans, this opens up a huge possibility to accurately model society in a large simulation.

arxiv.org/abs/2411.10109

Hello world,
This is our first post. Our mission is to make humanity more rational and empathetic by showing us how we look like in a digital twin of the economy!