1️⃣ What explains electoral success in Mexico’s gubernatorial elections after the democratic transition? The key was not government performance, but the support of the incumbent governor. On average, candidates from the governor’s party were about 42% more likely to win. 🧵
Sadly not this year, but hopefully in 2027!
Happy to share that "Polarization and Democracy in Latin America" is out now with @uchicagopress.bsky.social and available in multiple formats.
If it looks interesting, please consider requesting it at your university library!
Check it out 👇
press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/bo...
Right to the top of my reading list. Congratulations!
Electing an autocrat may have been a mistake
No runoff in Costa Rica: Laura Fernández has won the presidency. The incumbent party is projected to win 30 of 57 assembly seats, short of a supermajority.
www.reuters.com/world/americ...
Ecuador was already besieged by crime and violence. Now it faces a populist president whose “strong hand” policies show little success. They may do even more damage to the country’s democracy.
Last chance! Read today to read free!
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/a...
Crime linked to drug trafficking is the defining issue. Homicides have increased during Chaves’s presidency, yet he remains popular for his outsider image and Bukele-style tough-on-crime rhetoric.
apnews.com/article/cost...
Costa Rica votes tomorrow. Rodrigo Chaves’s “heir,” Laura Fernández, will lead the pres. race – and may reach 40%, enough to avoid a runoff in 🇨🇷’s modified majority system. Watch the legislative assembly: if the PPSO wins a supermajority, changes to term limits seem likely.
‼️‼️ Check out our new first online article! 👇
Do Voters Reject Gay Candidates? We find no punishment among the general electorate: voters in Argentina reward gay candidates, while Chilean and Mexican citizens are indifferent.
@rcastrocornejo.bsky.social
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
I can't believe we're living in a world where the U.S. president accepts the Nobel Peace Prize as a bribe. This is just embarrassing.
"The ruler exercises his power without restraint... unencumbered by rules or by any commitment to an ideology or value system....[Norms are subverted by] arbitrary personal decisions of the ruler, which he does not feel constrained to justify in ideological terms."-Chehabi & Linz,Sultanistic Regimes
"The ruler exercises his power without restraint... unencumbered by rules or by any commitment to an ideology or value system....[Norms are subverted by] arbitrary personal decisions of the ruler, which he does not feel constrained to justify in ideological terms."-Chehabi & Linz,Sultanistic Regimes
Delcy Rodríguez on Saturday: “What is being done to Venezuela is a barbarity.”
Delcy Rodríguez on Sunday: “We extend an invitation to the U.S. government to work together on a cooperative agenda."
What a difference a day makes.
Gift link: nyti.ms/4jmMYdc
😂
All we need now is L. Paul Bremer being brought out of retirement and the flat circle of time will be complete.
"The Monroe Doctrine is a big deal." He sounds like a failing student trying to bluff his way through an oral exam.
Latin Americanists this morning:
Looks like the U.S. owes someone $50 million
There's little information to go on right now, but it seems likely that Machado's efforts to woo Trump may come to naught if the Trump admin is content to capture Maduro and do nothing to ensure a regime transition. Showing once again that sucking up to Trump is a fool's bargain.
It seems likely that all of Machado's efforts to woo Trump may come to naught, as the U.S. captures Maduro but doesn't ensure a regime transition.
Wow.
1. A remarkable operation by U.S. forces & failure of Venezuelan security forces (or someone inside gave up Maduro’s location?).
2. Glad to see Maduro go.
3. No one knows what happens next. Will U.S. just leave Venezuela to sort it out? Will Cabello and Padrino take power? 🤷♂️
🏛️ Mientras la presidencia sigue en disputa, el #Congreso ya muestra una tendencia clara: el #bipartidismo regresó con fuerza.
🤔 ¿Puede #Honduras 🇭🇳 reconstruir la confianza democrática sin un acuerdo político mínimo entre sus principales fuerzas?
latinoamerica21.com/es/el-pais-d...
Check out my annual end of year special edition of the #AmericasMigrationBrief reviewing migration trends across the Americas in 2025 and what to watch in 2026!
www.migrationbrief.com/p/5-migratio...
I understand that commentators want to analyze foreign policy as if there's a rational strategic president in the White House. But you can't watch Trump over the past few months without concluding that his already tenuous grip on reality is declining fast.
My take on 🇻🇪: Competing actors want to either overthrow Maduro, and drugs are a pretext (Rubio); or want to use a military intervention as pretext for the Alien Enemies Act & mass deportation of Venezuelans (Stephen Miller).
There’s no grand strategy from Trump – the guy's brain is cooked.
This is what happens when the students who say "I didn't know we had reading assigned today" end up running the country.
