John Crowley

My 2026 and 2027 global temperature forecasts The best thing about predicting the near future is you don't need to wait long to be wrong

For more details on how a strong El Nino might impact 2027 temperatures, see my December post on 2026 and 2027 forecasts: www.theclimatebrink.com/p/my-2026-an...

Isn't it an Israeli-US coalition they are working in?

Azerbaijan just closed airspace "in the south of the country" per Bloomberg macro squawk. Losing that link would have a massive impact on Europe-Asia (incl the Indian subcontinent and ANZ) air travel.

FT comments section this morning - saying what everyone else is thinking, right?

If he presses this attack, RFK Jr might find that we New Englanders will pronounce Junior as 'Munchkin'

Thanks for that thoughtful answer. When I was in grad school in the 1990s, we had so much hope that the rapid digitization of manuscripts would open new avenues of research. I smile reading your words: something innately human in those manuscripts defies automation and AI.

Formerly on medieval track (quadrivium). I am curious. Evidence in medieval work often has large gaps right where one would want direct written proof. Is AI capable of the humility that one must bring as a historian, or does it confabulate (fill in the gaps with a lie)?

Dylan Johnson, Asst SecState, says that the State Dept is actively security military aircraft and charter flights for American citizens who wish to leave the Middle East.

In general, it is a bad sign when the State Department hints at a non-combatant evacuation operation in one country. Here, it is for an entire region.

Someone might print that quote and nail it to the door. (sigh)

Operation Allies Refuge moved ~125K people out of AFG in 2021. To move 300-400K AMCITs and families out of the Middle East, commercial air will not suffice. The US would need to perform one of the largest non-combatant evacuation operations ever attempted--during an air war. There's a plan, right?

Affordability will be a key campaign plank for the US mid-terms. Democrats will pound on it. GOP will gaslight around it.

One might ask what happens when rich people train AIs to make management decisions AND to identify kill chains and execute humans.

Let me get this straight. If Jesus returns, he will *reward* a bunch of men who brought war and pestilence to the world? Who trampled on the rights of the poor, persecuted migrants, and trafficked children for sex?

Perhaps someone could ask a follow-up a question about "empty": in a time of war, a US Embassy did not have Marines and other security on site 24/7?

Yes. Humanitarian data expert with degrees in public admin and history. It's like being a professional Cassandra: we see what is coming, but no one believes us. After Elon's WoodChipper, preparing talks is now part mapping the canaries that have gone silent, part revealing the unfolding dystopias.

U.S. Troops Were Told Iran War Is for “Armageddon,” Return of Jesus Advocacy group reports commanders giving similar messages at more than 30 installations in every branch of the military

EXCLUSIVE: At more than 30 installations, U.S. commanders told troops the war on Iran is a Christian war.

The Military Religious Freedom Foundation has been “inundated” with more than 110 complaints.

One NCO said they were told the U.S. war is to bring about Armageddon and the return of Jesus…

Ukraine showed that interceptors are key to countering UAV and missile attacks. How many days until Gulf countries run low on their magazines? What does the supply chain look like? What happens if Iran depletes interceptor stocks and only then launches a major salvo?

Is that the same as a Special Military Operation? Asking for a friend. (sigh)

Assistant Secretar... * X.com @AsstSecStateCA The @SecRubio @StateDept urges Americans to DEPART NOW from the countries below using available commercial transportation, due to serious safety risks. Americans who need State Department assistance arranging to depart via commercial means, CALL US 24/7 at +1-202-501-4444 (from abroad) and +1-888-407-4747 (from the U.S. and Canada). ENROLL in step.state.gov to get the latest security updates from the nearest U.S. embassy or consulate. Security Updates for Americans in the Middle East (Updated March 2, 4pm EST)

Security Updates for Americans in the Middle East (Updated March 2, 4pm EST) DEPART NOW VIA COMMERCIAL MEANS DUE TO SERIOUS SAFETY RISKS • Bahrain • Egypt • Iran • Iraq • Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza • Jordan • Kuwait • Lebanon • Oman • Qatar • Saudi Arabia • Syria • United Arab Emirates • Yemen Americans who need State Department assistance arranging to depart via commercial means can call us 24/7: +1-202-501-4444 (from abroad) and +1- 888-407-4747 (from the U.S. and Canada). 3:49 PM • 3/2/26 • 4.4K Views

The above security alert was issued by the Assistant Secretary of Consular Affairs for the US State Department.

“Americans who need State Department assistance arranging to depart via commercial means, CALL US 24/7 at +1-202-501-4444 (from abroad) and +1-888-407-4747 (from the U.S. and Canada).”

Yes, agreed! Given how Americans tend to travel to urban destinations, most cannot picture a rural French farmer's market. Let alone a stand where a vendor/producer has a unique cheese on the table. We don't know what we are missing! Wandering a farmer's market would make a great video pod.

And why I cannot select between the 3-, 5-, and 7-day fresh goat cheeses unless I go to France... (sigh, one day)

While cheese history in general is fascinating, I would want to hear the story behind their cheese searches: what they tasted, what they selected, and why this cheese in the case as opposed to a peer that did not quite make the selection. That has the benefit of driving sales of specific cheeses.

In 2016, 1000s of AI researchers and business leaders signed this open letter calling for a ban on lethal autonomous weapons. futureoflife.org/open-letter/... Worth having a little scroll through some of the names highlighted in the top 100.

Mud Season can officially begin only after the first False Spring. I don't make the rules.

Cover of The Lancet:

@thelancet.com
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...

I had been looking forward to watching several series on HBO Oh, well. That plan is toast.

If Anthropic caves to DoD, I suspect many other businesses will classify Claude as a supply chain risk...

As of tonight, licenses of trans people across Kansas are being invalidated en masse, enabling the overnight criminalization of an entire group of people for going about our lives. It’s often said you never know when you’re living through history, so let me assure you: that’s what’s happening now.

Maybe someone could place a Festivus pole on the House dais?

The rumor is that the SOTU address will be 2-3 hours in length. How is a sundowning dementia patient with incontinence going to last that long on stage?