If you're going to watch the ACC Men's Tournament, here are some of the players, their prospect ranks (consensus), and how Net Pts values them (in college, not projecting to the NBA).
espnanalytics.com/mcbb-award-l...
Top rookies
- Knueppel is going to have the best numbers. But historically, Flagg would win ROY because people are still projecting him as having the best future.
- Several positive rookies is a good sign
- Queen and Richard were solid/good to around Christmas, then fell
Tonight's Cleveland-Detroit game is critical for the Cavs if they want a top 2 seed, but not particularly so to maintain a top 4 seed.
They face each other next Tuesday and the Cavs would help themselves a lot to win both.
Of the critical games over the last two days, the only team that won was Phoenix last night (and it was critical for the Lakers, too).
- PHO has improved chance to 27% for top 6
- LAL at 54%, MIA at 21%, LAC 5% for top 6
- CLE still has a 97% chance at top 4
The Spurs have done pretty well without Wemby this year. Better with him, but still good without.
It looks like it's De'Aaron Fox and Keldon Johnson who have done better on offense with Wemby out. Castle has actually done a little better on D.
Got to join the Wharton Moneyball podcast yesterday to talk about the state of the NBA and why @deanolytics.bsky.social belongs in the basketball hall of fame. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/w...
What this basically says is that one of Denver's top 5 critical games the rest of the way to maintaining a top 4 seed is on Sunday @ GSW.
They win that game 58% of the time when they stay in the top 4. They win it just 42% when they don't.
You can explain ~60% of the variation on prospect ranks among our top 30 in net pts per game just using that metric and their age. (ValueExp - is a quick transformation of Rank)
This is just a quick tell on why best college players aren't best prospects.
espnanalytics.com/mcbb-award-l...
These are the records that teams need to have to make the play-in or to achieve a top 6 seed with 90% confidence.
Here are some significant players who have changed teams this and how well they are doing relative to before the trade. Not a lot of games yet, so things haven't stabilized.
This came out.
Visual storytelling using Net Points.
Here's some quick/dirty numbers from the NBA/MCBB. There is good consistency, but not perfect consistency across leagues.
I'll have to dig it up. Sorry for the delay.
Not sure what you mean.
Put in values of eFG, tov%, FTr, and OR% and spit out a team Rating?
Looking at our top 10 NBA prospects in the Draft Simulator, this is how well they've done *against BPI Top 25 opponents*
- Best offense is Flemings, Boozer, Lendeborg
- Peterson and Lendeborg are high on defense
- Wagler, Dybantsa, Brown below avg on D
espnanalytics.com/nba-draft-si...
There were 27 college men's games yesterday and the top two players across all of them both came from Louisville.
Combining for +41.6 total net points, it was easily the best teammate-game of the year.
espnanalytics.com/mcbb-box?id=...
The relationship between possession use, efficiency, and overall productivity, which comes from the book Basketball beyond Paper
- Don't have to be as efficient at high usage to be productive.
- But small efficiency differences at high usage can lead to large differences in productivity
Not a graph, but a table. LaMelo helps guards/wings more than bigs. The statistically significant ones are in bold.
In the context of the rest of the season, Castle's big night last night was easily his best of the year and still you see the bumpy ups and downs of player performance.
espnanalytics.com/nba-player-g...
But you can look up his chart here
espnanalytics.com/nba-player-g...
When a team basically wouldn't have won without a player's performance - we call that a threshold win. And We added it to our MCBB gamelogs.
Here is Ebuka Okorie of Stanford, for example, who has 5 threshold W, 0 threshold Ls - best in the Power 5+BE
espnanalytics.com/mcbb-player-...
Yeah, I should look at percentage of games that are good - that tends to be more stable. And they are getting those performances recently.
This has to be a fun ride for the Hornets. Their starting lineup is all positive at this point.
Miller has been on a tear for 3 weeks, Knueppel has been good since mid-December.
Dylan Harper and VJ Edgecombe are having what I'd call a typical rookie up-and-down season. Typical for a good rookie, that is.
Knueppel showed an early flat period, then he took off.
Flagg is a little in-between, taking off recently, but still showing ups/downs.
I'm heading to Connecticut in April for the Connecticut Sports Analytics Symposium. Giving a talk with the boring title of
Why division of (micro)credit helps in sports
The talk should be better than the title.
statds.org/events/csas2...
Up to the point of the trade, Jonathan Kuminga
- Has never posted a positive season in Net Pts
- His offense this year was at its worst
- He is at #384 (of 391) in Passing
I have to think he will be better where he feels appreciated. But still not good.
espnanalytics.com/nba-award-le...
NBA teams and how many times different players led their team in Net Pts - in Wins only.
- OKC has 40 wins, SGA has led them in 24 of them.
- Naz Reid has led MIN the most in wins, even though Ant has far better overall performance
The UConn men won last night behind Silas DeMary Jr.'s +6.9 total net pts. The Huskies have had 9 different players lead them in 22 wins.
Among BPI Top 25 teams, though, Kentucky has had 8 different net pts leaders in their 15 wins.
espnanalytics.com/mcbb-daily-s...
Go to the leaders page and type in your husky team into the filter.
Darryn Peterson was clutch last night for KU, posting +4.2 net points when the game was within 5 with 5 min left, best on the team.
There isn't a lot of clutch time in college. Peterson only has 18 poss all year and half were last night.
espnanalytics.com/mcbb-box?id=...
