Gorton and Denton: the bloc vote sums
• Green + Lab + LD 2024 → 2026
• Cons + Brexit/Reform 2019 → 2026
make one wonder if there's less than what meets the debate's eye on the finer points of party ideology or candidate quality.
Different elections, turnover in the active electorate, and yet.
This will be the 3rd edition. If you study pol. behaviour and work on #CEE, this is the right place to present your research. Dates: June 25-26. Discussants include @simonhix.bsky.social & @eliasdinas.bsky.social. Highlight: roundtable on dem. erosion with H. Kriesi, M. Svolik & N. Wunsch.
A picture of PEW poll on global attitude survey, saying the % who rate the morality and ethics of people in their country as good vs bad, where the US has the worst rankings and Canada the best
Americans: we live in a fallen state—embroiled by sin, cheating, lying, and evil. You cannot trust anyone, not even those who claim to know you best
Canadians: I love my neighbors and my friends!
I meant "Davos", of course!
I agree. And Canada's limp response too, which seemed odd after the Davis speech. It's not like the US didn't flag this with the armed forces build up in the region in the last few weeks. Can't really understand how the E3+Canada were caught napping.
Sanchez 💪
“And you, sir, are certainly no FDR” … although Starmer is too weak to say anything like that
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Absolutely. And, of course, the SD strategy in DK might make sense from a “bloc politics” perspective, if it means expanding the overall votes of the Red block. But, that logic doesn’t work in the UK FPTP system.
That "Danish Model" he went for is paying off in Denmark too, latest polls:
SD : 22.1% (-5.4)
SF : 13.2% (+4.9)
Exactly three weeks from an election
Our latest voting intention (1-2 March 2026) has the Greens on their highest figure ever recorded by YouGov, significantly ahead of Labour, who are on their lowest figure to date
Reform UK: 23% (-1 from 22-23 Feb)
Greens: 21% (+4)
Conservatives: 16% (-2)
Labour: 16% (-2)
Lib Dems: 14% (=)
Congratulations Ingvild. So great to see this paper in print. It deserves to be widely read and widely cited. 👏
Still controlling for gender without thinking about why? You can cite me💚👩🔬💚
I show that the gender gap in progressive climate and environmental views is a persistent empirical regularity that cannot be explained by differences in socioeconomic background, political ideology, or risk aversion.
How’s that move rightwards on immigration working out for you Sir Keir?
For now this is just one poll. But if this trend continues the current FPTP voting system makes no sense anymore.
If you add the SNP and Plaid Cymru to the mix we might end up with a completely random result at the next elections. Which will undermine trust in the U.K. democracy even further.
Political cartoon about the Expatriation Act of 1907, which revoked the citizenship of women who married non-citizens.
#ResistanceRoots
#WomensHistoryMonth
Today in history, 1907: Congress passes the Expatriation Act, which stripped American-born women of their citizenship if they married a non-citizen. A woman had to adopt her husband’s nationality, effectively making her a stateless alien in her own country. /1
Maybe, but that's not the claim most people are making today. Their argument is that these voters have switched in the last few years from Labour to Reform. There is little evidence of that.
This is also supported by individual level data, which shows Labour losing more voters to the Greens than to Reform. The rise of Reform in traditional Labour areas does not mean that Labour voters in those places are all shifting to Reform. That’s an ecological fallacy (cf. @tabouchadi.bsky.social)
Well, no, they’re not just as wrong. The bigger error is not seeing that “trying to win over voters from a party on the opposite end of the spectrum, whose values your core voters oppose” is not same as “chasing voters from party on same side ideologically whose values your core voters like.”
Also Starmer (and Badenoch, but no surprise there) adopting Goodwin's "sectarianism" framing.. ugly stuff.
This is from Keir Starmer’s letter to Labour MPs today. This sort of stuff is shockingly partisan and nasty. It will only backfire with voters who switched to Green or are thinking of switching.
Looks like us ‘bloc politics’ people were on to something after all ;)
benansell.substack.com/p/british-po...
With Labour as SDLP, and the party to the left of UK Lab and SDLP has the same political colour 😉
📢 Registration Reminder for EPSS Belfast 2026
If you haven't registered already, please note that the registration deadline for the EPSS Belfast Conference is Friday, 13 March 👇🏼
Register here: app.oxfordabstracts.com/register/eve...
🚨🚨Biggest #EU news of today: #Iceland looks to fast-track vote on joining EU as referendum on EU accession could come as early as August, departing from original plan for 2027 ref. 🧵
www.politico.eu/article/icel...
Fascinating response to @jburnmurdoch.ft.com’s piece on whether a university education is worth it, by my EUI colleague @hermwerf.bsky.social
open.substack.com/pub/hermwerf...
🤣. OMG! This is so bang on.
“Off with his head”
The rumour that they are building a scaffold at the Tower of London is false.....
Peace for Animals (Dutch: Vrede voor Dieren, VvD) is a political party in the Netherlands. Founded on 24 July 2025, it split from the Party for the Animals over dissatisfaction with the party stance on military expenditure.
Signs that your country needs an electoral threshold
The last time a senior member of the British royal family was arrested was 1647 ... and we know what happened to him!
#JustSaying
