The scary thing about a prediction market is that people with little information can randomly make a catastrophic event marginally more likely.
04.03.2026 06:20
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The scary thing about a prediction market is that people with little information can randomly make a catastrophic event marginally more likely.
and that was after an election cycle dominated by both parties' elites demonizing immigrants, boosting "violent criminal" propaganda in the State of the Union, bipartisan anti-immigrant bills, competing over deportation numbers, ending pathways for legal status, who was tougher on immigrants, etc.
Not once does this story mention that the Supreme Court in 2007 rebuked the argument that EPA lacks authority to regulate carbon dioxide as a pollutant. Let's not let SCOTUS off the hook here: it will need to decide whether to change course, because otherwise this is likely dead in the water.
wild...not surprising but very cool that it can be measured! thanks!
Thrilled to share that my paper with @judgelord.bsky.social and Justin Grimmer:"How shifting priorities and capacity affect policy work and constituency service: Evidence from a census of legislator requests to U.S. federal agencies" is out at the AJPS!
New in AJPS: "How shifting priorities and capacity affect policy work and constituency service" with @ellieneffpowell.bsky.social & Justin Grimmer
+Data on 611,239 legislator requests to federal agencies on
@harvarddataverse.bsky.social
Paper and data are both open access: doi.org/10.1111/ajps...
Have you read Dr. @triofrancos.bsky.social’s new book Extraction: The Frontiers of Green Capitalism?
Check out this interview in @thebaffler.com to learn more about her maxim for economies transitioning to clean energy:
“Minimize extraction, maximize public good.”
thebaffler.com/latest/schro...
Incredible personal reflections on organising from @alybatt.bsky.social Spadework www.nplusonemag.com/issue-34/pol...
When did all women get the vote to vote?
One of the q's on the new citizenship test is incorrect. 1920 is not when "all women" got the right to vote. The 19th A prohibited sex-based disenfranchisement, but didn't guarantee voting. Many women, esp. women of color, remained disenfranchised. #WeTheMen
www.washingtonpost.com/nation/inter...
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Heritage gloating that they've made Democrats lurch to the right.
20 years later conservatives will then concoct a conspiracy theory that this was all a Democratic Party plan to destroy the US.
line chart with time on the x axis and millions of dollars on the y axis. the line begins at less than 4,000,000, shows a increases with a sharp uptick between 2000 and 2010, a sharper uptick between 2010 and 2020, and a huge nearly vertical (on the scale of the graph) increase after 2020. the graph stops with the line approaching 24,000,000
"Net Worth Held by the Top 0.1% (99.9th to 100th Wealth Percentiles)" Federal Reserve Economic Data
I tried looking up research on the second part and could not find the study you referenced. Could you link? Thanks!
It couldnt figure out a bag of chips or an ROTC uniform but it could figure out he was black?
Profiles in "Knowing which way the wind is blowing."
my most lib opinion: so long as we have law enforcement officers, they should probably be able to pass an exam about what the law allows them to do without consulting notes
Why Are Electricity Prices Rising?
www.distilled.earth/p/why-are-el...
wild asymmetric polarization against the idea of merit-based civil service. j
The real estate industry & its Wall Street financiers would greatly prefer that we pretend climate change doesn't exist. So imagine the challenge they now face with Trump's proposed privatization of mortgage giants Fannie Mac and Freddie Mac. @scrawford.bsky.social explores how this could play out.
NEW: There’s a disaster unfolding in Alaska right now. And no major network is covering it.
The remnants of Typhoon Halong battered western Alaska overnight. Homes, with people in them, have literally been swept into the Bering Strait.
At least 20 are missing. No comment from any federal agency.
Homes flooded in Kipnuk
Flooding seen with water up to the crash barriers of local roads
Sheds and debris lie scattered in the storm
A small blue house has been blown onto its roof
These are mostly indigenous communities in Alaska that have been slammed by the storm.
The local manager of a small airline fleet says he is the only one doing evacuations right now!
Defund FEMA and people are abandoned. Defund public media and no-one knows.
FYI, today is Indigenous Peoples Day.
Molly Roberts has a nice piece at @lawfaremedia.org on the Hatch Act during the shutdown.
www.lawfaremedia.org/article/the-...
Calling political sociologists and political scientists! Submissions are open for the 2nd People-ing Politics Mini-Conference at ESS! This year's theme is "Bringing the People Back In." To submit a paper, please use the ESS conference portal and be sure to choose our mini-conference. www.essnet.org
Befuddled scientists should understand that their animosity isn't mainly to our research; it is toward *us* and expertise as a source of independent voice they don't control.
"We have to honestly and aggressively attack the universities in this country...The professors are the enemy."-Vance, 2021
IRS layoffs are costly for the U.S., redistributing wealth to the top 1% (who lie on their taxes at jaw-dropping rates).
The bottom 99% generally pay their taxes. cepr.org/voxeu/column...
bsky.app/profile/segf...
These guys have gotten incredibly rich by fleecing the government with subpar tech that was designed for rentseeking rather than performance. A smart Dem agenda item would be to build internal tech capacity. The fact that it would punish these guys is just a silver lining.
Government shutdowns offer a rare opportunity to un-submerge the submerged state. Something Democrats could/should be doing is every day of shutdown, pick some agency and focus on it for the day. Highlight what it does and what we're losing each day their staff are furloughed.
thanks! @commiedharma.bsky.social I also wrote a response to that piece from Commune, years ago when it was published fwiw viewpointmag.com/2019/05/16/p...
Picture how big the Hoover Dam is. An absolute unit. The Hoover Dam has a power capacity of 2 gigawatts (GW).
The solar farm that the Admin just cancelled could have produces 6.2 GW of power. That's more than 3 Hoover Dams.
