The year was 2024. The 8th strand of Covid is ripping through countries. People haven’t flown in years, entire cities are vacant, manhattan office buildings abandoned…..
Oh wait.
Nothing ever changes, llc
“Tariff uncertainty has just dropped a lot”
Yah ok guys, this excuse for your bull case never made sense to me.
So doing a blanket sec122 of 15% then a bunch of 232 sector tariffs - in my view- are worse and harder to create carve outs.
Regardless, idk why people thought tariff uncertainty “was behind us”. Lazy.
No and agreed, that’s what I’m saying. Some incumbents have advantages and aren’t sitting on their hands asking “what ai”. My point was *IF* you move off those, you aren’t gonna just settle for some cheap mid tier Claude wrapper. You’re going full on Claude vibe code. Or nothing at all
I’d keep what I have that’s embedded/useful, maybe even use more of it bc of llms- or just scrap it and build something else.
Hard for me to see much traction for the middle ground of cheap and 80% there, but also the prime function is the brain, and I also pay anthropic and use it too.
Hot take: the big time saas incumbents (who will flex advantages) will be harder to disrupt than the new ai start ups that are just “agent instructions” UI on top of their Claude api tokens.
Eg “If you can build a competitor in a week with 3 people, so can I”
If a saas doesn’t have this and is a pretty UI, then sure let the narratives run wild.
Personally in our biz, we’ve cancelled 2 saas (pretty UI) this year, but we spend *net way more* on other saas giving us data and apis bc of what models let us do with that now.
Mkt really doesn’t get this yet
Something I’m very diff than the mkt on: the “saas just turns into data repos, sucks”
My view: yah exactly, and what’s the problem? If you hold proprietary data or verifiable data, now you have agents that need and will call that data soooo many more times.
This is nuanced, and mkt is very lazy rn
Feels like we are in the “travel and offices have changed FOREVER” part of the cycle.
I honestly should post more, idk im just bad it.
With that said/ this is the most offsides and dumb I’ve seen the market price certain companies in quite some time, maybe ever. And no I wasn’t born yday. Big macro sell offs can make sense for all kinds of reasons- rn isn’t that, it’s idiosyncratic
Just want to say, having the Claude chatbot make a prompt for Claude in excel is the way to do it. Woah
“Tariff uncertainty has just dropped a lot”
Yah ok guys, this excuse for your bull case never made sense to me.
Really need someone to map for me where this 200bn of tariff $s went in the macro data. And as @conorsen.bsky.social said on our pod, if we can’t find it then why don’t we just double it?
I mean, fair enough.
One thing I’ve never understood is how trading patchwork ieepa for less avoidant 232s and months of uncertainty around new 232s makes uncertainty and/or tariffs go down.
Or for the derivative crowd, idk how the rate of change on tariff $ and tariff uncertainty gets better from here.
China getting h200s isn’t as bullish nvda or the semi complex as it is bullish China tech imo
Gemini will build you one! Do it in canvas. Tell it to use react and typescript so it’s easy. Optimize for firebase hosting, firestore prob. And it’ll rock it out. It’s not a one prompt thing of course but it’s also kind of fun.
Had the pleasure chatting with @conorsen.bsky.social about all the cross currents we’ve seen this year- and try to map out the main scenarios going forward. Enjoy!
Always a good time, appreciate it man!
open.spotify.com/episode/7LD5...
Yup, can confirm.
Happy for everyone just rolling in it with all their AI trades they think are obvious and shitcos.
I’m just here to say this isn’t my market. Hasn’t been since April.
Just owning it. Not at all an environment I operate well in.
Know your strengths and weaknesses I guess? lol
I really think there is signal in the recent OpenAI pivot. Yes it’s “well they need to have big rev to pay for the big obligations to raise more big money to make god”
If that’s how the trajectory is going a lot of coattails cos are gonna be big mad.
I just don’t know mate. The karpathy stuff, Demis tweet on the OpenAI guys math tweet. OpenAI biz shifts. User slowing graphs.
Lots of smoke by very informed people differentiating llms from agi and resetting mile high expectations.
Just don’t think oracle has picked up on this yet lol
Oooo good use case. Hadn’t thought of that one. I’ve got an “earnings analyst” pretty dialed in lol
Barnums (JPM cfo) view on the Econ just now is exactly how I see it too.
I know 18/19 is a popular answer but 2021 is under appreciated. I’ve never seen an economy and vibes like that, everywhere. No one cared about anything except for booming after the reopen.
I do wonder how much of the mkt is held up by anthropic and OpenAI going around and saying “ok cool you got me covered for 2030 in case I need it?” to 4 different companies.
10/10 chart, well done
REAL
Innovation and computers are cool. But it’s still wild to me that I left my house at 7 in Charlotte and I’m center downtown Philly in 4 hours flat.
I’m prob the only one that cares anymore but all the big retailers saying no tariff costs in H1 but it’s coming H2 matters to me. Don’t think that’s gonna be an easily digested thing
Curiosity question- did intel dilute themselves 10% or where did this 10% come from? Or no one knows?
