💹 Market odds – final update | DGW26
Final update on projections from sharp betting markets ahead of this evening's #FPL deadline
Some of the changes today:
NEW 📈 +0.12
CHE 📈 +0.06
LIV 📉 −0.05
AVL 📉 −0.03
Palace now have two games in GW16 midweek
If they decide to move ARS v CRY QF to GW17 weekend
- LEE-CRY will be postponed to later in the season (causing a BGW17)
- EVE-ARS would also move (causing a BGW17)
- There's a possibility (and some pressure) to put EVE-ARS in GW16 midweek (causing a DGW16)
💹 PL GW1 matchups
A first look at sharp market projections for the opening round of PL fixtures, covering:
🔹 GW1 projected goals & clean sheet odds
🔹 GW1 teams to target
🔹 GW1 WDL odds
💹 Updated: projected season-long goal involvements
The latest projected goals + assist leaders for the PL season, via SpreadEx 👇
Sesko priced at ~10.75 goals for the season, and Thiago added in at ~9.25. Eze, Wissa and Ekitike markets still suspended pending transfer news.
Introducing Solio: A New FPL Tool 📺
@pras-fpl.bsky.social and @jonnyc.bsky.social are joined by @trout-post.com to showcase the tool’s different features and how it can give you a competitive edge in the 2025/26 FPL season.
youtu.be/p9cabL8lfdY
💹 Top projected season-long goal involvements
The latest projected goals + assist leaders for the PL season, via SpreadEx 👇
Welcome to Solio and the 2025/26 FPL season
Here it is, our first ever video. Join @pras-fpl.bsky.social and @jonnyc.bsky.social as they talk briefly about Solio and mostly about the upcoming #FPL season. Hope you like it!
youtu.be/iZEdS3BAA2U
Here's how our very early @solioanalytics.com projections see Wirtz's #FPL output at Liverpool - & how it stacks up against last year's cohort 👇
Verdict: 🔻 Likely under-priced at £8.5m
Doesn’t have the ceiling of pen takers like Saka or Palmer, but could easily be a top 5 FPL mid
The ©️A P T A I N and
P R E M I U M matrix 🖊️
🗓️ #GW24 - to - GW32
🟪 highlighting key CAPTAIN and PREMIUM player options and their HOME and AWAY matches versus last seasons bottom 12/promoted sides 👀
#CaptaincyMatrix #FPL
💚💛❤️
🐇HopON🐇HopOFF🐇matrix🐇
🗓️ #GW24 - to - GW38
🟩 highlighting HOME and AWAY
matches versus last seasons
bottom 12/promoted sides
🔜 #DGW24 for LIV+EVE
❌ #BGW29 tbc prior to GW25
🎰 DGW’s expected in GW33 & GW36, BGW expected in GW34
#hopONhopOFFmatrix #FPL
F I X T U R E S 🗓️
#GW23 - to - GW38
#DGW25 for #FULTOT is likely if Spurs finish Top 8 in Europa League (currently 6th) AND Spurs bt Liverpool to reach Carabao Final (currently 1-0 with second leg at Anfield). Likely earliest confirmation will come after DGW24 deadline.
#theFPLmatrix
💚💛❤️
Table showing PL fixtures and potential rearrangements for gameweeks 23 to 38
Table showing probability of fixture rearrangements
Table showing probability of blank and double gameweeks
FPL Double and Blank Gameweeks
Viz dump + logic explained 🧵
💹 PL GW23 matchups
First look at projected goals, clean sheet % and WDL odds for the weekend's round of Premier League games, via betting markets
#fpl asst manager chip prices...
💹 PL GW21 matchups
Early look at projected goals and clean sheet odds for the next midweek round of Premier League games, via spread betting markets
#FPL Big Chance Involvement
x−axis: Big Chances Per 90 minutes
y−axis: Big Chances Created Per 90 minutes
Data from: @fffix-fpl.bsky.social, for GW1−20 this season. Only players who have played at least 450 minutes so far, and have at least 1 big chance involvement.
#FPLCommunity #FPLgraphics
Here are the Blank percentages for Gameweek 29.
GW29 fixtures become Blanks if either side reaches the EFL Cup Final.
The EFL Cup SF 2nd legs are in the midweek before the GW25 deadline.
Thinking About Football Models 📰
What I think about when I think about football.
I tried writing a longer article for those curious about modelling football matches. In a way, it is what I wish I could have read five years ago.
Happy New Year everyone 💜
www.elevenify.com/p/thinking-a...
I calculated the EVs for the Assistant Manager in each fixture.
For now, not factored in probability of being 5 places below so:
Pts = EV if they not 5+ places below
Pts++ = EV if they are 5+ places below
From my team strength model
The FA Cup 3rd Round draw has been made.
The FA Cup won't cause Blanks in FPL until the Semi-finals (Round 7)
Here's the schedule for all 20 PL teams in all competitions up to the start of February.
💹 #FPL: GW13 player goal projections
First look at top projected scorers for this round of PL games, via spread betting markets (all markets assume a start)
Simulated Premier League Table 📊 (27 Nov)
Liverpool 4 points clear.
Man City are projected to finish third for the first time in as long as I can remember.
From model Team Ratings perspective, we are very close to a world where Arsenal become the best team in the league and still don't win it.
💹 #FPL: GW13 player goal projections
First look at projected goals and clean sheet odds for the upcoming round of Premier League games, via spread betting markets
🗓️EPL non-pen xG rolling calendar - November '24
- LIV are good, but it looks more like ARS and MCI slowing down rather than their own improvement
- Enzo Maresca, I apologize, I was wrong
- TOT are good?
- mid-table teams are such a tasteless blend
- seems EPL is uninhabitable for promoted teams
🔮 GW12: PREDICTED POINTS
1️⃣ Salah (9.9)
2️⃣ Palmer (6.9)
3️⃣ Isak (6.8)
4️⃣ Fernandes (6.7)
5️⃣ Haaland (6.6)
6️⃣ Mbeumo (6.0)
7️⃣ Saka (5.8)
8️⃣ Cunha (5.5)
9️⃣ Diaz (5.5)
🔟 Van Dijk (5.4)
Mo Salah is given a 51% chance of anytime goal (2nd) & 35% chance of anytime assist (1st) vs SOU.
#FPL || #DraftHound
I ended up on a pretty off-beat strategy this season. I haven't WC'd, I used my Free Hit in GW9 and I've taken a lot of big bets against the crowd.
Some analysis of how the fuck I got here here - I don't know where I'm right/wrong tbh
Buckle up bitches it's a 🧵
Good morning, afternoon and evening everyone.
@lateriser12.bsky.social
@zopharfpl.bsky.social
@pras-fpl.bsky.social
💹 #FPL: GW12 player goal projections
First look at top projected scorers for this round of PL games, via spread betting markets (all markets assume a start)
#FPL Optimized - Watchlist Wednesday
Expected Points Last 8 GWs vs
Projected Points Next 8 GWs
(Forgot to share it yesterday)
