zweitstimme.org

🗳️ Neue Prognose: Landtagswahlen in Baden-Württemberg (8. März) und Rheinland-Pfalz (22. März)

BW: Kopf-an-Kopf CDU vs. Grüne. RP: CDU und SPD fast gleichauf.

Unsere Modellvorhersage mit 5/6-Kredibilitätsintervallen und Szenario-Wahrscheinlichkeiten 👇

zweitstimme.org/posts/blog/f...

At the recent Zweitstimme.org Workshop on Elections, Public Opinion & Elite Behaviour at the Hertie School, researchers from across Europe shared new insights on elites, participation and polling, highlighting how data, methodology and communication are reshaping the study of democratic politics.

Had a great time at the @zweitstimme.bsky.social Workshop on Elections, Public Opinion & Elite Behavior.
I presented my work on why minority groups vote, and how these motivations relate to turnout among LGB and ethnic minorities.
Amazing conversations and a very inspiring group!

Had an absolutely amazing time! Great presentations + discussions, incl. impressive data collections from 160 treatments to 30,000 respondents

Thank you for the immaculate organization @eliaskoch.bsky.social @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social @hannahrajski.bsky.social @simonsaysnothin.bsky.social

So great to be in Berlin for this fantastic @zweitstimme.bsky.social workshop!

I presented joint work with @bjarneck.bsky.social and @bramwauters.bsky.social on the limited effects of mobilizing measures following the abolition of compulsory voting in Flanders.

Day 1 wrapped up, excited for tomorrow 🤗

🎉 Kicking off the Zweitstimme.org Workshop!

We’re looking forward to two days discussing new work on Elections, Public Opinion & Elite Behaviour.

Today’s sessions:
👉 Panel I – Elites
👉 Panel II – Participation
👉 Panel III – Party Strategies

Huge thanks to @hertieschool.bsky.social for hosting us!

I‘m excited to take part in the
@zweitstimme.bsky.social Workshop on Elections, Public Opinion & Elite Behavior at the @hertieschool.bsky.social this week! I'll be presenting first results from a project with @klingelt.bsky.social on the Geography of Electioneering in Multi-Party Systems.

What Shapes Voter Perceptions of Election Polls? The Impact of Partisanship and Visual Design Hybrid event [A5, 6, Room A231 + Zoom] November 05, 2025, 13:45-15:15 Abstract Election polls are a central feature of modern electoral campaigns, providing voters with information that can guide their decisions. Yet, voters are often confronted with many polls showing volatile or conflicting outcomes, and media outlets present these polls in very different ways. This raises two key questions: (1) How do voters judge the trustworthiness of a poll’s results? and (2) How does the way a poll is presented affect these perceptions? I present experimental evidence from two large-scale studies in Germany. Together, they show that both the content of a poll and the way it is presented influence voter perceptions, offering new insights into how individuals navigate modern campaigns environments. Presenter(s) Elias Koch is a Doctoral Researcher at the Research Training Group DYNAMICS (HU Berlin/Hertie School) and a Research Associate at the Hertie School in Berlin. His research explores party competition and political behaviour in established democracies, with a particular focus on shifting public opinion landscapes.

🚨 Upcoming: "What Shapes Voter Perceptions of Election Polls? The Impact of Partisanship and Visual Design"

👤 @eliaskoch.bsky.social (Hertie School)

🗓️ Wed, November 5, 13:45-15:15 CET

📺 Register for the live stream: us02web.zoom.us/meeting/regi...

🕑 Join us *today* at 13:45 CEST for the talk 'Forecasting the German Federal Election 2025 - Different Modelling Approaches' by @hannahrajski.bsky.social (University of Mannheim) & @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social (Witten/Herdecke University).

⬇️ Zoom link and details below