Atlanta tracking uncharacteristically cool.
Atlanta tracking uncharacteristically cool.
JEFFERIES: β.. Crude is the 2nd most overbought in history. The only time it was more extended was during the Gulf war in 1990 (10,583 trading days in this dataset). Given the inverse correlation to equities, as crude stalls, that should help the tape.β
UPDATE:
States with the biggest rise in #gasprices compared to a week ago
Indiana β¬οΈ47c/gal
West Virginia β¬οΈ47c/gal
Ohio β¬οΈ46c/gal
Florida β¬οΈ44c/gal
Louisiana β¬οΈ43c/gal
Oklahoma β¬οΈ42c/gal
Texas β¬οΈ41c/gal
Maryland β¬οΈ41c/gal
Georgia β¬οΈ41c/gal
Minnesota β¬οΈ39c/gal
".. Since October, payrolls have declined by -82k. Go back .. to August, employment is down -76k. Go back even further than that to June, and payrolls are off by -32k. That is stabilization? Really?? The YoY trend is now +0.1%, so if that gets you excited as a macro bull, go knock yourself out."
βWar-a-Lagoβ
By Barry Blitt @newyorker.com
Telling courts that refunds would be "automatic" and "assured" was the government's way of avoiding emergency relief.
With Qatar raising the prospect of $150 crude, our @pippastevens.cnbc.com says that would -- theoretically -- put retail gasoline somewhere in the $5.50 range.
@cnbc.com #OOTT
Half a million displaced in a country of approx. 5.9 million. The majority have been displaced multiple times. People are sleeping in the streets.
It is Ramadan. People can't check on family b/c they know Israel is weaponizing phones & internet.
This is layers of physical & psychological warfare.
ROSENBERG: ".. You call this a 'stabilizing' labor market?
".. The unemployment rate .. would have spiked up to 5.1% had the labor participation rate not fallen from 62.5% in November to 62.0% in February, the lowest it has been since December 2021 (almost all owing to the 25-34 year-old cohort.)"
[from yesterday]
β.. A Gulf official said it could have an impact on anything from investment pledges to foreign states or companies, sports sponsorships, contracts with businesses and investors, or sales of holdings.β
@financialtimes.com
www.ft.com/content/ab7d...
Lol it would be hilarious if this war blows up the Ellisons bid to buy Warner Bros. Since the purchase is being backed by money coming from Gulf states.
A few hours after NYT reported that the U.S. bombed an elementary school in Iran, killing many children, the White House last night posted this video mixing airstrike footage with Top Gun, Iron Man, Gladiator, Halo, Breaking Bad, Star Wars, John Wick, Superman, Transformers and Dragon Ball Z
Maybe this is just me, but I kind of think massive military operations, in which we're demanding unconditional surrender as the outcome, probably should be authorized by Congress.
Collecting your money illegally was so much easier.
> @schatz.bsky.social
After a year of berating and humiliating Ukraine, we could really use their help with drone warfare.
Irony of ironies. πΊπ¦
@pkrugman.bsky.social
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/renewable-...
* GOOLSBEE: STAGFLATION IS WORST-CASE SCENARIO FOR CENTRAL BANKS
".. Shutting in an oil well risks long-term damage to reservoir pressure and incurs high restart costs, usually making it a measure of last resort. Restarting production can take days or even weeks .."
Brent near $91.
@wsj.com #OOTT
www.wsj.com/business/ene...
WASHINGTON (AP) - Trump appears to rule out negotiations with Iran and says US will help Iran rebuild after the war.
@apnews.com
UNITED AIRLINES CEO SCOTT KIRBY SAID THE SPIKE IN JET FUEL PRICES WILL HAVE A βMEANINGFUL" IMPACT ON FIRST-QUARTER RESULTS
RENMAC: β.. the labor market sucks.β
Crude oil is now up 49.65% so far this year.
@cnbc.com
SWISS GOVERNMENT: DROPPING PLANS TO ACQUIRE THE FULL NUMBER OF 36 F-35A FIGHTER JETS FOR FINANCIAL REASONS
BOOCKVAR: β.. itβs now time to be watching fertilizer and row crop prices,β as 15-30% of fertilizers flow thru the Strait of Hormuz. β.. understand too that we are just weeks away from the beginning of the important planting season.β
Thereβs the two-year breakeven.
Up nine straight days.
(via Boockvar)
> @samsteindc.bsky.social
B of A says itβs still βcrucialβ that bank loan ETFβs hold their February lows.
$BKLN
B of A: β.. any sign deceleration of exponential AI capex growth = best catalyst to reverse βshort tech bondsβ trade (led by Oracle CDS spreads) ..β
$ORCL
Asian countries bearing the brunt of this energy scare, as expected.
(via B of A)