Avel Guénin--Carlut

But causality does not entails determinism though

The reason why I didn't cite Clausewitz is because that's a 8yo-level understanding of how conflit works

If you dramatically roll up your sleeve and demand that I fight you, I accept or I refuse, whatever happens happens

If you sucker punch me out of nowhere, the only way I survive long term is by making sure you can't even think of pulling that again

I read Thucydides when I was 13, don't recall the details but I'm pretty sure he said strategy is gay

US Navy tells shipping industry Hormuz escorts not possible for now The U.S. Navy has refused near-daily requests from the shipping industry for military escorts through the Strait of Hormuz since ​the start of the war on Iran, saying the risk of attacks is too high f...

Whoa. This is big. "The U.S. Navy has refused near-daily requests from the shipping industry for military escorts through the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the war on Iran, saying the risk of attacks is too high for now." www.reuters.com/world/middle...

yeah, this is in keeping with what a lot of people here (especially @sky.skymarchini.net) have been saying

This is why, when we want peace, we respect peace talks

"Edmund Burke would have thought, correctly, that liberty is put at risk by the consumption of that vanilla sweet cream nitro cold brew. People “are qualified for civil liberty,” he wrote in a letter, “in exact proportion to their disposition to put moral chains upon their own appetites … in proportion as their soundness and sobriety of understanding is above their vanity and presumption … in proportion as they are more disposed to listen to the counsels of the wise and good.”"

For the little I know about Burke, I'm fairly confident that:
A) he wouldn't have known or cared about whatever "vanilla sweet cream nitro cold brew" is;
B) the appetites he wants to see chained are not appetites for coffee with a specific type of syrup

This is a reasonable position that I formed over my many years of teaching and researching political theory, and not whatever I could come up to place myself as a bullhark against them damn libs in a political landscape shaped by literal slavery nostalgics

You see, the natural order which applies beyond time and space is soluble in a mix of coffee and syrup.

It's hard being a conservative in 2026

I can't compete with this.

the amount of Chinese investment in green manufacturing plants around the developing world is mind boggling.
www.netzeropolicylab.com/china-green-...

As someone who once co-authored two books in support of nuclear energy: this is likely the kiss of death to nuclear power.

It is a risky long term investment that is uniquely dependent on social acceptance. An incompetent, very unpopular government slashing safety rules leads to a reaction.

3% of atheists believe in god

2% of biblical literalists think jesus was a fictional character

& i want to see a debate between them

I think it’s absolutely amazing that after only 10 months of hard work we have one of the @eurosky.social team tell the French parliament about Eurosky on live TV. 🥰
Thx @robin.berjon.com for your hard work and thx to everyone who has supported @eurosky.social so far!!!

At 2pm Paris time today I'll be testifying in the French Parliament about digital sovereignty.

Watch it live at videos.assemblee-nationale.fr/direct.php!

I think he is living proof that panpsychism is a live position - although poorly summarized by "rocks are conscious"

But this is methodology fundamentally based on comparing stuff to human brains.

And we don't even have a good grip on what modalities we should compare - see Bich's centrist manifesto

The one thing I know *a priori* about consciousness is that I have it.

From there, assuming ut is grounded in physical phenomena, I can make inferences on what systems are conscious and what their phenomelogy is like

To me, the big question is how and whether we should go beyond biological naturalism.

Don't know of Chalmers ?

Been writing variations on Scott for 5 years now, would be happy to talk about it if you like !

The danger to my job from AI isn't that AI can do my job, it's that my job is made even more precarious by the way AI is shaping ideas of the value of work. It can't do my job, but it can be part of convincing people (incorrectly) that my job isn't necessary.

Or to reframe it this way: it is rational to take box B if you consider the probability that the predictor is good at his job is superior to .0001

There is no plausible scenario whether I can assess their competence at this level of precision (or even care to do so).

Ergo,

Yeah, it boils down to what we call "rationality" tbh

If we consider only the choice made at instant t, then it is always optimal to take both boxes

If we consider broader time scales and policies, then it is always optimal to be the kind of person who takes box B (as far as the predictor can tell

New acquisition

Very curious about this white nation-state. What language do white people speak? What is their mode of government? Wish I'd know more

Predictive processing goes for minimal, action oriented representation - at least as discussed in Clark, A. (2015). Surfing uncertainty: Prediction, action, and the embodied mind. Oxford University Press.

That's quite far removed from optimising correspondance