🎙️At the @UN_OCT quarterly briefing, we briefed Member States on @orolsi.bsky.social efforts of the last three months to help #police, #justice, #corrections institutions counter #terrorism, #ViolentExtremism and #OrganizedCrime, including through #SSR and #MineAction work.
🗨️In #Rabat, #Morocco, world-class experts, insights & analyses, and rich conversations at 14th Atlantic Dialogues #AD2025 on issues impacting the #Atlantic Basin. I was honoured to speak at panel on political & security dynamics in #Sahel. @policycenterns.bsky.social ad.policycenter.ma
🌍Very interesting panel & discussion on #geopolitics, #conflicts & #crises at @marcusevans summit in #Florida at which I linked #governance & #RuleOfLaw deficits with instability that affects global economies & markets. Honoured to have listened to and met Alex @AROD Rodriguez!
▶️The situation remains highly volatile, making any predictions futile, but speculation is running wild about scenarios such as the fall of #Bamako, a negotiated settlement between the jihadists and the military regime, and a military surge allowing the Malian authorities to break the blockade.
▶️It also highlights the growing strength of #JNIM, which has managed to open a new western front, impose economic blockades, and exert significant pressure on the Malian authorities.
▶️The current crisis in #Mali underscores the failure of the military regime to deliver on its promises, contain the violence, and ultimately defeat the #jihadist groups. @egmontinstitute.bsky.social www.linkedin.com/company/egmo...
▶️Sans réponse coordonnée et durable, cette dynamique risque de provoquer un désinvestissement massif, une contraction économique régionale et une instabilité accrue, avec des répercussions durables sur la stabilité du #Sahel et au-delà.
▶️Le JNIM exploite habilement les griefs locaux en qualifiant les investisseurs étrangers de « colonisateurs économiques », accusant leurs projets d’exploiter les ressources sans bénéfice pour les populations.
▶️Les attaques du #JNIM visent, désormais, directement les infrastructures économiques, les sites miniers et les convois logistiques du #Mali, avec pour objectif stratégique d'asphyxier les économies locales et de délégitimer le régime en place. timbuktu-institute.org/index.php/co...
▶️Access to fuel is becoming the focal point of the conflict. To defeat JNIM, the junta needs large-scale ground operations and air support; yet both depend on a steady supply of fuel.
▶️#JNIM has said it wants to emulate the #Taliban, who entered Kabul after the military they had been fighting for two decades effectively vacated the capital.
▶️#AlQaeda militants are moving closer to seizing the capital of the #WestAfrica nation of #Mali. They appear to be getting close, though they will likely wait some time before making any decisive move. @wsj.com www.wsj.com/world/africa...
▶️JNIM has likely opportunistically diverged from its original objectives due to its success in sustaining the blockade, leading to a #FuelCrisis that has degraded relations between the junta, citizens, and the fuel sector.
▶️JNIM is seeking to negotiate with the junta as an equal, moving it toward de jure legitimization.
▶️A #JNIM spokesperson announced on October 17 that its blockade on the southern half of #Mali would continue until the junta fell or agreed to apply shari'a law nationwide. @criticalthreats.bsky.social www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/mal...
Heightened vulnerability to cross-border attacks from militant Islamist groups risks destabilizing local communities and governments in these countries. #WestAfrica
▶️The ability of the Maçina Liberation Front – the most active member of the JNIM coalition – to project its influence throughout southern Mali also poses increased threats to Mali’s coastal neighbors.
▶️The JNIM coalition now exerts much more influence and control over territory in Mali than at any other previous time during the 13-year insurgency.
▶️By attacking transportation arteries, fuel tankers, and population centers in western #Mali, the #JNIM coalition is targeting the economic, security, and political vulnerabilities of the military junta in #Bamako. africacenter.org/spotlight/jn...
... and on @UNPOL police and @unmas.bsky.social mine action, I participated in its final strategic review (2022), downsizing and closure (2023), and today spent the day reflecting on lessons learned from 10 years of @UNPeacekeeping in Mali to inform the future of UN peace operations. 🇺🇳
🔄 Coming full circle: after having worked on planning the @UN peacekeeping mission in #Mali @UN_MINUSMA (2012-2013), then accompanying its deployment, growth and operations (2013-2018), with a focus on strengthening the #RuleOfLaw and security and justice institutions...
📢At Mission of @GermanyUN, inspiring high-level event with voices from the field about the future of @UN work on disarmament, demobilization and reintegration #DDR, going beyond men with guns to also focus on women, communities, #peacebuilding, #prevention. #DDRsymposium
🎙Recently briefed @UN Member States on how the rule of law approach of @orolsi.bsky.social makes #CounterTerrorism and the prevention of #ViolentExtremism effective in the field. Also thanked outgoing @UN_OCT USG #Voronkov for his steadfast work and inspiring leadership. #CT #PCVE
🎙️In my (first!) podcast interview, I discuss with @policycenterns.bsky.social how @UN now supports #peace & #security beyond #peacekeeping contexts, including to strengthen #RuleOfLaw, #justice and #security through @orolsi.bsky.social work in Sub-Saharan #Africa. soundcloud.com/policycenter...
Em #SaoTomeEPrincipe 🇸🇹, o Primeiro-Ministro, interlocutores dos setores da #justiça e #segurança, com @ONU_STP, reconheceram o impacto e a necessidade do suporte contínuo da @orolsi.bsky.social para o desenvolvimento institucional. Reiteramos nosso compromisso de continuar engajados.
In #SaoTomeAndPrincipe 🇸🇹, the Prime Minister, key interlocutors of the #justice & #security sector and @ONU_STP confirmed the significant impact and continuing needs of @orolsi.bsky.social institutional development advisory #IDA support. We committed to remaining fully engaged.
🇵🇹Productive discussions with ministries of Foreign Affairs @NEstrangeiro_pt & @Defesa_pt and with #AtlanticCentre & @InstCamoes in #Lisbon about work of @orolsi.bsky.social Institutional Development Advisers #IDA, including in lusophone countries, as we aim to work closer with #Portugal.
In #SierraLeone 🇸🇱, I participated in a weeklong @orolsi.bsky.social mission to discuss with Government, civil society and @UNSierraLeone how our Institutional Development Advisory #IDA programme could contribute to #peace, #justice and #security in the country.
O Presidente de #SaoTomeEPrincipe discursou na Comissão de Consolidação da Paz e se reuniu com o @undppa.bsky.social PBSO e o @orolsi.bsky.social, destacando a implementacao de sua estratégia de #PrevencaoDeConflitos e o progresso continuo na #ReformaDoSetorDeSegurança e #justica. #PBC @RepSaoTome
The President of #SaoTomeAndPrincipe addressed the @unpeacebuilding.bsky.social Commission and met @undppa.bsky.social PBSO and @orolsi.bsky.social, highlighting the adoption of its #ConflictPrevention strategy and steady progress on #justice and #SecuritySectorReform. #PBC @RepSaoTome
