The overall unemployment ticked up slightly in February, while the unemployment rate rose for Black, Asian, and Hispanic workers. Notably volatile series, but Black unemployment is now back up at 7.7% compared to only 3.7% for white workers.
#EconSky #NumbersDay
While the overall employment-to-population ratio dropped because of the new population controls, the prime-age employment-to-population ratio—the share of the population 25-54 with a job—remains incredibly resilient.
#EconSky #NumbersDay
Not only is the drop in the labor market enormous, but the new population estimates significantly impacted rates. The labor force participation rate dropped 0.4 percentage points while the employment to population ratio fell 0.5 pps. In a typical year, we see little to no changes in rates.
#EconSky
After the payroll job losses, the population adjustment in the household survey is pretty big news. Every year, the Census updates their population estimates to incorporate new information. This year there was a very large drop in the labor force and the number of employed, each down 1.4 million.
Attacks on the federal workforce continue. Federal employment has shrunk an alarming 327,000 jobs since January 2025. The vital services federal employees provide cannot be done without these essential workers. The cost of these losses are only beginning to be felt.
#EconSky #NumbersDay
Manufacturing jobs fell again, down 12,000 between January and February 2026. Since January 2025, the manufacturing sector has lost 100,000 jobs. I repeat: The manufacturing sector lost 100k jobs since Trump took office.
#EconSky #NumbersDay
Job losses in Feb were most acute in health care, due to striking workers who have since gone back to work. Notable losses as well in leisure and hospitality and educational services. Job were added in financial activities and social assistance. On net, 92k job losses for Feb.
#EconSky #NumbersDay
Today's jobs report was much weaker than expected. Payroll jobs fell 92k in Feb, and revisions to Dec data show a loss of 17k jobs. Average job growth over the last 3 months now under 6k.
Household survey population controls indicate a significant drop in the labor force.
#NumbersDay #EconSky
The big story in today's jobs report is about the final benchmark revisions. With the downward revisions to prior data, the labor market added only 181,000 jobs total in 2025, just 15,000 per month on average.
#EconSky #NumbersDay @epi.org
Over the last year, the unemployment rate increased from 4.0% to 4.3%. In addition, the labor market has weakened for U.S.-born workers: unemployment rose to 4.7% in Jan, up from 4.3% a year earlier. (Seasonally adjusted data aren’t available by immigration status)
#EconSky #NumbersDay
Attacks on the federal workforce have been astounding. Federal employment has shrunk an alarming 324,000 jobs since January 2025. The vital services federal employees provide cannot be done without these essential workers. The cost of these losses are only beginning to be felt.
#EconSky #NumbersDay
Jobs continue to be added in health care and social assistance in January 2026 while the federal government experienced another set of losses. Manufacturing gained 5,000 jobs but is still down 83,000 jobs since last January.
#EconSky
Today's #JobsReport highlights:
- payroll job growth 130k in January, but benchmark revisions show 2025 much weaker than originally reported
- unemployment rate at 4.3%, up from 4.0% last January
- federal government continues to lose jobs
#EconSky @epi.org #NumbersDay
The latest data out this morning from Challenger indicate a surge in job cuts in January, concerning and a key indicator to watch when the next #JOLTS report comes out.
Note: the release date for the next JOLTS hasn't been announced likely due to BLS job cuts.
www.challengergray.com/blog/challen...
While the hires rate ticked up slightly in December, it still remains depressed at levels similar to 2013 when the economy was still recovering from the Great Recession. Should layoffs pick up even a bit, this low hires rate would see the unemployment rate rise quickly.
#EconSky
Bar graph showing annualized real wage growth by decile and time period, titled "Wage growth stalled for low-wage workers in 2025"
After substantial gains over the last several years, wage growth at the low end slowed sharply in 2025. The 10th percentile wage actually fell in real terms as the labor market weakened.
Nice analysis from @elisegould.bsky.social and @joe-fast.bsky.social
Data volatility noted, it's a little hard to ignore the sharp drop in job openings in today's #JOLTS release for December 2025. The job openings rate fell from 4.5% Dec 2024 to 4.2% Nov 2025, then down to 3.9% Dec 2025. Except in the pandemic, the job openings rate hasn't been this low since 2017.
Today, the BLS released the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey data for December. Highlights:
- job openings fell in sharply in December, down 966k over the year
- hires ticked up slightly, but remain depressed at levels similar to 2013
- quits and layoffs unchanged
#NumbersDay #EconSky
Even after low-end wage growth for much of 2019-2025, the 10th percentile wage is only $14.56, far from sufficient to make ends meet. Even at full time, annual pay would only be $30,279—not enough to afford a modest yet adequate standard of living anywhere, per @epi.org's Family Budget Calculator.
Even with last year’s decline, the 10th-percentile wage is much higher now than in 2019. And there was still substantial wage compression between high- and low-end wages over the last six year. Our findings are consistent with @arindube.bsky.social research:
arindube.substack.com/p/the-wage-c...
In 2025, low-end wages fell as chaotically imposed tariffs, cruel mass deportations, and massive layoffs among federal agencies that provide key services and inputs to private-sector economic activity, led to economic uncertainty, lower job growth, depressed hires, and higher unemployment.
#EconSky
Real wages declined 0.3% for low-wage workers in 2025, a stark departure from the unusually strong wage gains they had experienced over the previous five years. This reversal was not inevitable—it was caused by policy decisions that weakened the labor market.
#EconSky @epi.org @joe-fast.bsky.social
Low-wage workers saw their real wages decline in 2025, a sharp reversal from the historically fast real wage growth they had experienced over the previous five years.
For all the details, check out my latest research with @joe-fast.bsky.social @epi.org
www.epi.org/blog/low-wag... #EconSky
Initial unemployment insurance claims for federal workers are still significantly higher than this time last year. Continued claims are 91% or about 6,000 higher than the same week in 2025. Over 13,000 federal workers are still receiving UI after massive layoffs last year.
#NumbersDay #EconSky
The latest read on the labor market comes in the unemployment insurance claims data released this morning: www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
Initial and continued claims fell in latest week of data, but that trend is consistent with the same reference week in 2025.
#EconSky #NumbersDay
The unemployment rate for young workers (16-24 years old) has been rising steadily for much of the last 2 1/2 years. With depressed hires, I'm concerned about the ability for young workers to break into the labor market.
#EconSky #NumbersDay
Long-term unemployment—unemployed for more than 26 weeks—surged to 1.948 million in Dec. The last time we saw long-term unemployment this high was back in December 2021 when we were still coming out of the pandemic recession. It's increasing hard for workers to (re)enter the workforce.
#EconSky
Among women, the unemployment rise has been SHARPEST for Black women according to Dr. Valerie Wilson @epi.org. This is #TheDoubleTax.
Most of the drop in job growth is slower net immigration + workforce aging... but not entirely
Rising unemployment and cooling wage growth suggest demand is weakening, just slowly
While the unemployment rate has risen since January (4.0%-4.4%), the share of the population with a job weakened (60.1%-59.7%). The prime-age employment-to-population ratio (share of 25-54 year olds with a job) has remained surprisingly steady over the last several months.
