Looks like those US job numbers may have helped Gilts catch a sympathy bid
Or maybe the move was just overdone
Either way, 2yr yields *only* 10bp higher on the day now
Italy: I'll see you're 20bp jump, and raise you to 25bp
Just a 20bp jump in the two-year Gilt yield today, totally normal stuff
“These are remarkable moves [in bond markets] and help to mechanically boost inflation expectations higher"
www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...
Probably the best way of showing the before/after impact on bond yields of the Iran conflict
Silver lining of markets having had a mini freak out over UK government finances last autumn is that two-year Gilt yields are only back at October levels
Two-year French and Italian yields at highest level in a ~ year
Bond yields on the rise again this morning, led by the short end
Gilts, again, the worst hit
😅
Fairly ballsy from Fitch on oil prices given the current uncertainty
"We do not expect significant upside to our December 2025 assumption of an average Brent oil price of USD63/bbl for 2026."
Checking in on the dispersion trade 😬
A nearly 20bp jump in two-year Gilt yields today, leading the global bond selloff
NEW: Banks seize on precious metals trading boom
Global banks’ precious metals trading revenues jumped 60% last year to a record of nearly US$4bn
The trading boom continued in Q1 with revenues projected to rise ~10% amid the volatility, says Coalition Greenwich
www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...
Precious metals accounted for ~ 1/3 of banks’ overall commodities revenues in 2025, according to Coalition Greenwich, a record high share, vs ~20% historically
Many banks are investing amid what they see as a structural shift higher in precious metals trading revenues //
The headline grabbing moves in gold and silver have presented some huge trading opportunities for banks
ETF flows have gone through the roof and derivatives trading volumes have smashed records
That's helped bank revenues reach new heights as trading these markets has become "much more profitable"
NEW: Banks seize on precious metals trading boom
Global banks’ precious metals trading revenues jumped 60% last year to a record of nearly US$4bn
The trading boom continued in Q1 with revenues projected to rise ~10% amid the volatility, says Coalition Greenwich
www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...
Good note from Morgan Stanley's Andrew Sheets on markets' AI dilemma, complete with obligatory cartoon and Terminator 2 references
"One way to describe the impact of AI is that it is widening the range of long-term outcomes, and thus the value of convexity, or unequal outcomes, across assets"
Deutsche's Jim Reid on political risk and markets:
It's all about the oil price
Deutsche Bank on February's market moves:
Stoxx Europe 600 posted its 8th straight monthly gain for the 1st time since 2013
Nikkei hit a new record
Biggest monthly decline for 10yr Treasury yields in a year
7th straight monthly gain for gold for the first time since 1973
S&P500 total return -0.8%
'[Lloyd] Blankfein's praise for [David Solomon] is sparing and rather faint: “It’s always hard to watch your successor make choices different from the ones you would have made.”'
www.ft.com/content/2324...
Inflation traders haven been in demand ever since 2022's surge in consumer prices
Banks recorded another jump in inflation trading revenues last year following the tariff uncertainty
www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...
SCOOP: Star inflation trader Cypel leaving Citigroup
Latest sign of the strong demand for traders in these niche markets
Douglas Cypel, Citi's head of GS inflation trading, is widely regarded as one of the best around and looks now to be heading to a hedge fund
www.ifre.com/people-and-m...
Goldman Sachs: markets are rewarding HALO - Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence
Our new Capital Intensive basket has outperformed Capital Light by 35% since 2025, as asset intensity becomes a key driver of valuations and returns
NEW: AI’s stock market shakeup fuels dispersion trading craze
The historic churn in US stock markets has sent dispersion surging to record levels
That's tempting more investors to pile into complex derivatives bets profiting from stocks heading in different directions
www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...
NEW: AI’s stock market shakeup fuels dispersion trading craze
The historic churn in US stock markets has sent dispersion surging to record levels
That's tempting more investors to pile into complex derivatives bets profiting from stocks heading in different directions
www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...
every now and then when we can :)
"It's just soul crushing, trying to tell someone [they're being called up for military service]"
Missiles, mobilisation and cold: Citigroup's Ukraine chief on the risks he's juggling after four years of war
fascinating profile from @ifrsteves.bsky.social
www.ifre.com/people-and-m...
To mark 4 years since the full invasion, @ifrsteves.bsky.social talked to the guy who runs Citi in #Ukraine. He has to decide who to protect from the draft.
https://www.ifre.com/people-and-markets/2386962/missiles-mobilisation-and-cold-citi-ukraine-chief-juggles-risks-after-four-years-of-war
