Ariel Edwards-Levy

Screenshot of a button with "agree", and thumbs up, thumbs down and popcorn

new scale just dropped

Online opt-in polls can produce misleading results, especially for young people and Hispanic adults We examine how an opt-in poll may have unintentionally misled the public about the sensitive issue of Holocaust denial among young Americans.

AFAIK (my understanding of historical response patterns is a little limited!) younger folks are generally lower-propensity respondents than older ones, but there's also this, which is less about young people than data quality: www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...

this was a subtweet about the "some gen z men agree a wife should obey her husband" thing and now it's just a post saying that there are several grains of salt related to both how the question was framed and how well certain types of surveys are able to capture the views of young respondents

(to be less pithy: this is a well-known and highly discussed issue in the field. I recommend this Pew report as background reading; would note that in the years since, increasing numbers of surveys use methods other than telephone calls to reach respondents: www.pewresearch.org/methods/2017...)

yes

anyone want to read the ~1600-wordish piece I wrote on some of these issues a couple of years back

also: polls are ultimately just a way to talk to a bunch of other people at scale, and people are fascinating

(the actual answer to this:)

i just think they're neat

why is everyone here trying to sell me a hamburger, i demand to know at the counter of the wendys

Half of Americans think ICE is making American cities less safe, CNN poll finds | CNN Politics Most Americans see an immigration officer’s fatal shooting of Minneapolis resident Renee Good as an inappropriate use of force, a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS finds. Roughly half view it as a sign o...

In our January poll, Noem's approval rating stood at 38%.

www.cnn.com/2026/01/14/p...

Nixon v Kennedy polling trend 1957 to final election, with key events indicated. Voter preference is accurately described as “seesawing” Public Opinion Index for Industry report using Gallup data

I do love a nice trendline with event markers

pivotmaxxing

your number one source for BRAKING NEWS

i think that's from the pollen forecast

it's important to include the full range of cherry blossom peak forecasts because you wouldn't want to

cherry pick

which is not to say the finding is necessarily invalid or useless, just...don't overindex, and while you're here:

this was a subtweet about the "some gen z men agree a wife should obey her husband" thing and now it's just a post saying that there are several grains of salt related to both how the question was framed and how well certain types of surveys are able to capture the views of young respondents

I see the Discourse is once again surrounding the results of an agree-disagree survey question among a hard-to-reach group in a nonprobability sample

Some context: in Gallup's polling, support for the Iraq War was never lower than 41% until mid-2005, over two years into the war. (Source: news.gallup.com/poll/1633/ir...)

unfortunately this is my natural state

you better watch out,
you better not cry
be better, you grout
I'm telling you why

one must imagine a rehabilitated grout pad renouncing its hooliganism and settling down to full-time employment and sobriety

Poll: Majority of voters disapproves of how Trump has handled Iran Most independents say the U.S. should not have taken military action, along with a slice of Republicans, according to a national NBC News poll.

New @nbcnews.com poll

On what Americans think about Trump’s handling of Iran:

• 41% approve
• 54% disapprove
• 3% no opinion
• 2% not sure

Should the U.S. have taken military action against Iran?

• 41% say yes
• 52% say no
• 7% not sure

www.nbcnews.com/politics/tru...

Would you describe the color of the sea as:

1. White
2. Black
3. Wine-dark
4. Other (please specify, we really need more words for colors)

(anyway, all of this save the survey format is outside my experience but presumably a perfectly normal discussion for farriers. i find the details of what other people do for a living fascinating! which is also why I like what I do for a living)

more like a-poll-o' people, amirite

When faced with no hoof growth in a healthy foot, what do you do? I don't touch the foot I clean up the chips and cracks, but don't take anything from the foot. I clean up the foot and address any indications of deformation. I trim as much foot as I can.

i trim as much foot as I can