Lex Investor

My lesson is—can’t read anything into what I observe. Let it ride. Build new cash. Keep eyes open.

crazy

a green car is parked in front of a building with graffiti on it ALT: a green car is parked in front of a building with graffiti on it

“South Korea's Kospi stages a sharp rebound, surging over 12%, on course for best day on record”

“Operation Epstein Diversion”

Senior data analyst ($260 salary) w/ a friend stole $1.2M. They split the “ghost-employee“ paycheck. Hopefully someone at the top is scrutinizing payroll & tightening things down.

“American Bitcoin” -90% market value

“The crypto wipeout that vaporized $1 Trillion in market value over the past 3 months has afflicted all corners of the industry—including the numerous crypto ventures tied to President Donald Trump's family.”

EWZ

That’s amazing to me. (overreach)

A top-tier risk we should’ve been working to mitigate without interruption. The U.S. gov is incompetent—& I’m afraid it’ll cost us big. We’re distracted.

off hours?

2/2
No matter your short-term returns, make no mistake—this is the correct mindset. We have permanent capital, zero redemption risk, can drift between styles & move between borders.

Things can change in a moment; don’t be shaken.

“The ability to just let go of short-term performance is one of the greatest advantages an individual investor has over institutions and fund managers.”
(Sidecar Investor)

1/2

“Citi: $NVO's trial design misstep hands advantage to Eli Lilly.”

“Novo's CagriSema showed 23% weight loss vs. 25.5% for $LLY's Zepbound. Management admits earlier trials weren't fully optimized, w/ 43% of patients never reaching the highest dose.”

disappointing, but an overreaction

The patient collector of fundamentally well-priced shares watches, avoids rash decisions, accumulates, knowing time is the arbiter of returns.

…now—cool your d*cks.

people coming ‘round ya’ll

Bear-porn? Maybe…

Even BTC miners are having doubts.

“There are a handful of excellent books on accounting that are worth reading carefully.“ ~Mauboussin

“Reflections on the Ten Attributes of Great Investors”
2/2
• Credit Suisse:
• Michael J. Mauboussin
• link to paper, 2016 forum.valuepickr.com/uploads/shor...

"Great investors don’t get sucked into the vortex of influence. This requires the trait of not caring what others think of you, which is not natural for humans...”

~ Mauboussin

1/2
link to white paper: “Reflections on the Ten Attributes of Great Investors” ⬇️

Let’s talk more about specific names at some point. I can imagine putting together an equal-weighted group of satellite holdings in software. Small %.

We should compile a list of defensible names here. I think at the right moment in time, a basket approach could work.
(investing in software)

6/6
I misspelled Nicolas Bustamante’s first name. He published this yesterday on X and it seemed to get some attention. If anyone has opinions—throw them out.

5/5
“Vertical Software, Are We Cooked?”
by Nicholas Bustamante

4/5
“Vertical Software, Are We Cooked?”
by Nicholas Bustamante

3/5
“Vertical Software, Are We Cooked?”
by Nicholas Bustamante

2/5
“Vertical Software, Are We Cooked?”
by Nicholas Bustamante

“Vertical Software, Are We Cooked?”
by Nicholas Bustamante
(pub on X)

What software might survive the AI onslaught?

(20 slides total)

An absolute must read for anyone trying to decide what software co. is a decent bet.

1/5

“The Epstein Class”