Futurist at the movies microreview: "War Machine." This is a run-of-the-mill man-vs.-monster, alien invasion movie, but not a bad one, as it avoids the usual pitfalls of Netflix sci-fi.
Military AIs have begun to kill large numbers of innocent people. The question is just whether it is more, fewer, or just different people. www.technologyreview.com/2026/03/12/1...
@geneweingarten.bsky.social Check out both photo captions on this Post article
Six years since this ironic movie announcement from @newamerica.org / Future Tense --
"From a security standpoint, the abrupt collapse of the Cuban state could lead to internal conflict, mass exodus, and expanded trafficking routes in the Florida Straits." foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/10/t...
The Iran war unintended consequences: "terrorist attacks in the West, an oil revenue bonanza for Russia, instability in Iraq, ..., civil conflict or the territorial breakup of Iran, or the rise of a repressive military regime in Tehran." foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/10/t...
Futurist at the movies microreview: "Battle: Los Angeles," which came out 15 years ago today.
"Summary execution of companies for political noncompliance makes for a poor environment for the kind of capital formation that funds frontier AI development at scale." qz.com/anthropic-cl...
I’m struck by how every day the admin is like “whoever could have foreseen these consequences?!” when the consequences thus far — evacuations, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, rise in gas prices, etc. — are all the literal most obvious consequences.
@vermontgmg.bsky.social How likely is it that 2 Ospreys flying NW out of DC the afternoon of the State of the Union were carrying a designated survivor?
"The Adjustment Bureau" rated 1-10 for foresight (2), plausibility (1), and entertainment (8)
Futurist at the movies microreview: "The Adjustment Bureau," which came out 15 years ago today.
Karlin: "Almost inconceivable" that US will send in ground troops, as it would be as bad or much worse than the invasion of Iraq.
Maloney: The regime that emerges in Iran is likely to be weaker but also potentially more dangerous.
Maloney on Iran's future: The regime is deeply embedded and well-armed, and we are likely to end up with a determined rump version of the current regime. www.brookings.edu/events/us-ir...
"When U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff said that the president was frustrated that the Iranians hadn’t capitulated, it just meant that they completely misunderstand what the calculation is in Iran."
"Iran can take the pain. The question is when their capabilities may falter. They have made the decision that the only way the Islamic Republic, the revolution, and even the country survives is to persevere in this fight."
"The Iranians think right now that they have the stamina to keep hitting targets in the Gulf, raise energy prices, raise concern in global markets, and also gradually bring the Europeans into it."
Vali Nasr: Iran thinks that "if the war went on longer, got bloodier, more complicated, then it would establish a deterrence against further American aggression against Iran down the road" foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/02/n...
Cuba: "If protesters were to be met with a state-led crackdown, Washington could face a chorus of domestic demands for a decisive response, possibly extending to calls for military intervention." www.crisisgroup.org/qna/latin-am...
As things stand, I still agree with this scenario assessment:
If this order goes ahead and is allowed by the Supreme Court, it will be a strong sign the US has transitioned to post-Constitutional soft authoritarianism.
"The post-fossil-fuel order may not be more multipolar and democratic than the petro-order; it might just reorder coercive leverage around new scarcities." kschroeder.substack.com/p/earning-op...
OSINT and financialization -- "Once conflict probabilities are tokenised, marginable, and globally accessible, the question is no longer who observes instability. The question becomes: Who benefits from its acceleration?" jamie247.substack.com/p/open-sourc...
18 years after this satirical "forecast" for 2024 in Wired, many elements have cropped up in reality.
@kenjennings.bsky.social @terriblemapshq.bsky.social
An insult used in a dream I had last night: "He's like a bathymetric chart of a kiddy pool: no depths."
Around here, I've mostly seen Ospreys doing publicity shoot flights.
These 2 V-22 Ospreys just flew over my house. Speculation: they are carrying the SOTU designated survivor
Futurist at the movies microreview: "Chaos Walking," which came out 5 years ago today. A planetary settlement degenerates under the effects of inadvertent radical transparency.
Iran: "The best-case scenario after all the death and destruction might be a nationalist, authoritarian, and emboldened Iranian regime that is liberated from the unpopular trappings of an aging supreme leader and religious establishment."
"The most likely outcome of successful regime change in Iran is a takeover by the IRGC, which would be the best armed and most powerful force in a chaotic transitional environment. An Iranian military regime would likely remain sanctioned and unstable."
