Federico Donelli

Iran war fallout for the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa: political analyst weighs up the risks Tehran’s presence in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea is selective and opportunistic.

📌 My take @theconversation.com :
how US-Iran war could reshape Iranian politics in the medium–long term, with spillovers for the #RedSea and the Horn of #Africa.

👉 theconversation.com/iran-war-fal...

#Iran #Geopolitics

Really insightful and well-written article. A genuinely engaging read. That said, one question stayed with me throughout: does it still make sense to frame Gulf states and Turkey as emerging actors in the regional context?..

Conflict Management from Below: Insights from Somali Clan Militias and Colombian Indigenous Security Initiatives The article challenges conventional views in peace studies portraying local responses to violence as spontaneous and unstructured. Drawing on cases from Colombia (Guardia Indígena) and Somalia (Ma’...

📌New article in #Ethnopolitics with Giulio Levorato!

We examine how local actors in #Colombia and #Somalia develop organised, long-term strategies to manage violence, and introduce the concept of #conflict management from #below.

🔗Free access:
www.tandfonline.com/eprint/ZRWKF...

Turchia e terre rare: un’opzione per l’UE? | ISPI Leggi l'articolo Turchia e terre rare: un’opzione per l’UE? sul sito dell'ISPI.

📌Rare earths are becoming a key #geopolitical asset.

With @riccardogasco.bsky.social, we analyze #Türkiye’s potential role for the #EU in securing #critical raw #materials.

#ISPI online 👇

www.ispionline.it/it/pubblicaz...

Israel’s Recognition of Somaliland: Strategic Logic and Regional Implications - Orion Policy Institute Rather than an isolated diplomatic gesture, Israel’s decision to formally recognise the Republic of Somaliland constitutes a deliberate strategic intervention

📌 #Israel-Somaliland: strategic shift in the Red Sea?

Israel’s recognition of #Somaliland signals more than diplomacy

It reflects strategic, economic, and security calculations with major implications for the #region

My take @OrionPolicyIns 👇

orionpolicy.org/israels-reco...

🚨New issue of @MidEastPolicy out now!📘

Among many excellent contributions, my #article looks at the new #security #configuration of the #RedSea—and what it means for #regional order and #global dynamics.

A must-read issue👇

#Yemen #Sudan #Somalia #Somaliland #Israel #Gaza

Middle East Policy: Vol 32, No 4 Click on the title to browse this issue

New Middle East Policy analyzes rebuilding failed states, Saudi gains with Trump, new Red Sea order, Turkey-Israel conflict in Syria, Israel peace movement, Erdogan’s challenges. Bugra Sari, Guilain Denoeux, Robert Springborg, @fededonelli.bsky.social, more.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/toc/14754967...

#CFP #EISA Workshop #2026 🚨

Co-organising with May Darwich a workshop in Izmir:

Hybrid #Security in a #Fractured World: The #RedSea and Beyond (WS CB)

📅 Submissions open: 12 Jan
⏰ Deadline: 10 Feb

Submission🔗 eisa-net.org/ewis-2026/ab...

#EISA #CFP #RedSea #SecurityStudies

With the US backing a new Israel-Iran war, Middle East Policy issues its new journal, exploring the new regional order, the Israel peace movement, Turkey’s domestic struggles. With
Guilain Denoeux, Robert Springborg, @fededonelli.bsky.social, many more
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/toc/14754967/2025/32/4

Djibouti’s democracy takes another knock as ageing president engineers yet another term Djibouti is a presidential republic with a multiparty system, but political authority is highly centralised.

📌 #Djibouti’s constitutional change isn’t a technicality. It enables another #Guelleh term in a state central to #global #shipping and hosting numerous foreign bases.

Democratic #backsliding here has real #geopolitical #costs

My latest @theconversation.com 👇

theconversation.com/djiboutis-de...

Global power shifts are playing out in the Red Sea region: why this is where the rules are changing The Red Sea region has become a showcase of the new alliances shaping global power and influence.

The #RedSea has become one of the key arenas where #global power shifts are taking shape

In my latest piece for
@theconversation.com I explain why this region is now central to understanding changes in the #international #order

theconversation.com/global-power...

Bridging Land and Sea: Rethinking Security in the Red Sea Arena - Orion Policy Institute The Red Sea has shifted from a central shipping lane to a strategically important area linking Africa, Arabia, the Indo-Pacific, and global powers. The

📍 ⛴ From #Sudan’s war to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, land and #sea insecurities are now intertwined.

In my new piece for Orion Policy Institute, I explore why the Red Sea has become a strategic hinge of regional and #global #competition.

👉 orionpolicy.org/bridging-lan...

Betting on Addis Ababa: Meloni's African Strategy Between Realpolitik and Risk - Orion Policy Institute At a time when Ethiopia is experiencing domestic instability, Rome is doubling down on its support for Abiy Ahmed — a bold move that combines opportunity with

📌🇮🇹🇪🇹Can #Ethiopia be the linchpin of @GiorgiaMeloni 's #MatteiPlan in Eastern #Africa?

#Italy is betting big — but the risks may rival the opportunities.

My latest for @OrionPolicyIns :

orionpolicy.org/betting-on-a...

#Africa #EU #Geopolitics

📢 New #Issue Online!

👉 Focus on Understanding #GulfStates' foreign aid, dissecting narratives and politices of #EU #Geoeconomic turn, and more!

🔗 Read it here: shorturl.at/Pt4Ma

@fededonelli.bsky.social @yzdzakiyeh.bsky.social

Go with the flow. The fluid nature of African security governance: interpreting security regime configuration(s) in CAR, Burkina Faso, and DRC This article explores the evolving dynamics shaping African security governance. Drawing on the concept of regime complex, the study frames African security governance as a fluid system characteris...

📌 #Uganda to deploy 4–6k troops to #Somalia under a bilateral deal—another sign of growing "forum shopping" in #African #security

States are bypassing multilateral mandates for more flexible options

With @giuliolevorato.bsky.social 👇
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

#Africa #IR #peacebuilding

Middle Eastern monarchies in Sudan’s war: what’s driving their interests Sudan’s conflict didn’t break out because of the UAE and Saudi Arabia – but local actors felt able to go to war because of external support.

📌Nearly 2 years into #Sudan’s #civil #war, Middle Eastern #actors continue to fuel the #conflict.

In my latest for
@theconversation.com, I explore how their interventions and interests impact the #battlefield & peace efforts—crucial for the #RedSea & beyond.

theconversation.com/middle-easte...

From Paris to Ankara, Moscow and Budapest: Chad's Search for New Partnerships - Orion Policy Institute On 30th January, the French troops stationed in Chad completed their withdrawal. For the first time in more than sixty years, France had no soldiers on

📌 France's withdrawal from Chad marks a turning point. As N'Djamena looks to #Russia, Turkey & #Hungary for new alliances, the regional balance is shifting. But Hungary’s role remains ambiguous—what does its growing involvement mean for Africa’s future?

🔎 Read more: orionpolicy.org/from-paris-t...

A very insightful workshop at University of Naples L'Orientale on #informality where yesterday I presented a paper w/t @fededonelli.bsky.social on policy approaches to #ConflictManagement from below. We brought the two novel cases of #Colombia Indigenous Guard 🇨🇴 and #Somalia Ma'awisley militias 🇸🇴

Beyond National Boundaries: Unpacking Türkiye’s Role in the Sahel and Beyond Through Geopolitical Imagination For many scholars, Türkiye’s foreign policy since the early 2000s has been seen as shifting from a West–oriented to an East-facing approach, with its engagement in Sub–Saharan Africa reflecting thi...

📌Is #Türkiye’s #Africa policy a sign of a #foreign policy shift?

In our latest #Geopolitics #open access #article, Brendon Cannon & I argue that #geopolitical #imagination & #national #role offer a deeper lens.

Read more on Türkiye’s role in the #Sahel!

🔗 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Drivers of influence of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in East Africa: Evidence from Sudan Recent studies show that political and security competition between states in the Middle East vis-à-vis the Horn of Africa has intensified since the Arab Spring. This competition has exacerbated in...

📌How do #SaudiArabia & the #UAE shape Sudan’s #political & #security landscape?

My #article with Abigail Kabandula explores their growing #influence using the #FBIC #index.

Read more on their #strategic maneuvers amid Sudan’s ongoing #war.

Pdf: www.tandfonline.com/eprint/I8SF5...

🎙️ Just joined MICHAEL NWANKPA on the #Conflict & #Development in #Africa #podcast!

We discussed #Ethiopia-#Somalia relations, Ankara's declaration, and the role of regional & extra-regional #actors in the wider #redsea region.

Listen: open.spotify.com/episode/4Kpw...

Türkei: Erdogans Rüstungsindustrie fasst auch im Westen Fuss Der türkische Drohnenhersteller Baykar expandiert nach Italien, Staatskonzerne schliessen Geschäfte mit Spanien und Portugal ab. Damit gewinnt die Türkei auch an Gewicht gegenüber Nato-Partnern und de...

📌Big moves in #aerospace & #defense #industry!

Why did #Turkish giant Baykar, famed for #TB2 #drones, acquire Italy's Piaggio Aereospace? What’s the impact on the market?

I discussed this with Volker Pabst for NZZ!

nzz.ch/internationa...

From Rivalry to Cooperation: The Geopolitical Implications of Egypt-Turkey Rapprochement | ISPI One major effect of the war in Gaza was to accelerate a rapprochement between rival regional hegemons Turkey and Egypt.

📌Thrilled to share my analysis in the
#ISPI & #Atlantic Council dossier on #Egypt-#Turkiye relations!

I explore their impact on the #RedSea region—a key arena for #regional & #global #competition.

Discover the dossier👇

www.ispionline.it/en/publicati...

#Africa #security #Somalia

Syria, the Path Forward: Regional Perspectives on a Political Transition  | ISPI Today, we focus on the impact of the collapse of the Assad regime on Middle Eastern regional actors and the future regional balance of power

📌How are recent developments in #Syria reshaping #regional #dynamics?

My two cents for #ISPI on the implications for #Türkiye.

🔗 www.ispionline.it/en/publicati...

Trump 2.0 Africa - Orion Policy Institute Donald Trump's victory has inevitably prompted a general reflection on how his administration will affect American foreign policy and global dynamics. Most of

📌 Trump's return to the White House sparks big questions for #Africa.

How will #Trump 2.0 tackle climate change, #terrorism, & development? Will his past term shape new #policies or lead to #surprises?

My latest Orion Policy Institute’s commentary:
orionpolicy.org/trump-2-0-af...

#IR #Africa #US

📌Honored to deliver a lecture at Somali National University in #Mogadishu - the first by a visiting scholar since the civil war.

A historic moment, fostering cooperation with UniTrieste.

Here's to #resilience and #future collaboration!🇸🇴🇮🇹

#Somalia #Italy #EU

Foreign Aid, Identities and Interests: Qatar and the UAE in Sudan The entanglement of domestic and geopolitical dynamics with the evolution of the aid strategies of the Gulf States is particularly evident in the Horn of Africa (HOA), where the regional competitio...

📌Happy to share my #OpenAccess article with
Altea Pericoli published by International Spectator

#Foreign #Aid, #Identities & #Interests: #Qatar & #UAE in #Sudan

How do #Gulf aid #strategies intertwine domestic, #regional & #global dynamics in Sudan's crises?

🖇️ www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Somaliland, il voto della Repubblica autonoma che spera (anche) nell’appoggio di Trump Lo Stato ha auto-proclamato la sua indipendenza da Mogadiscio nel 1991. Ora confida nel nuovo corso degli Usa per un appoggio alla sua causa

📌Quoted in Sole24ore
by Alberto Magnani about the #Somaliland elections, and what Trump's victory could mean for the #Horn of #Africa!

#Somaliland #Geopolitics #Trump #USA

24plus.ilsole24ore.com/art/somalila...

📌Happy to share my first
Rabdan piece where I analyse #Ethiopia's quest for a #sea outlet & the implications of #MoU with #Somaliland

Key developments in the #RedSea that could shape future #geopolitics.

#Ethiopia #Somalia #Geopolitics #Africa

ra.ac.ae/en/research/...

📌Excited to share my latest #article, co-authored
Giulio Levorato

Published by the Journal #Intervention and #Statebuilding , it challenges simplistic views and urges dialogue for progress in #peacebuilding.

Enjoy reading! 👇

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....