Sébastien Roblin

bsky.app/profile/noel...

First Stealth Kill: How an Israeli F-35I Adir Fighter Downed a Russian-Made Yak-130 Over Iran History in Iran. An Israeli F-35I "Adir" scores the first-ever manned air-to-air kill for a stealth fighter, downing an Iranian Yak-130 trainer.

This morning an Israeli F-35I may have achieved the first air-to-air combat kill by a stealth fighter of manned aircraft: a fearsome Yak-130 trainer over Tehran. Read on for background & and likely reason the Yak was on patrol--hint, not to combat enemy fighters!

A U.S. Navy Nuclear Attack Submarine Just Torpedoed Iran's Navy First SSN kill in history. Sebastien Roblin breaks down the sinking of the Iranian frigate Dena and the return of heavyweight torpedo warfare in 2026.

For the first time, a U.S. nuclear-powered attack submarine torpedoed a ship in combat, the Iranian frigate Dena in Indian Ocean. Read on for what we know about the incident, background on Iran's Moudge-class frigates, history of post-WW2 sub kills, and political context.

Looking more closely at satellite photos, caution is warranted. The "before" photo shows the radar next to the targeted building. The "after' photo doesn't AFAICT. So it depends on whether the radar was tucked inside the adjacent building when strike hit, or was moved elsewhere at the time.

Quicky correction, should say 'TPY-2' above, not TYP. Keystroke de-harmonization strikes again.

This is quite an expensive and prestigious kill for the Iranians, if report is accurate (AN/TYP-2 supports the THAADS ballistic missile defense system.) Two mitigating factors: lots of redundant sensors including airborne ones at this stage, and sharply decreasing tempo of Iranian missile launches.

Raytheon Executive: I know you’re skeptical about buying American again. But hear me out. The MIM-104 Patriot is the only surface to air missile system with a proven track record of success against the US Air Force.

Danish Defense Minister: Continue.

How does it differ in your view?

Russia Is Fighting Like It’s 1916 Again Russia's battlefield performance is worse than in the bloody Battle of the Somme

Russia's tactics in Ukraine resemble those of the First World War. Except that in World War I, the generals eventually learned from their mistakes. My latest for Uncommon Defense.

www.theuncommondefense.com/p/russia-is-...

This is interesting (make sure to read full thread). I don't take official government claims super literally, but these numbers give a sense of scale and primary threat engaged. Unsurprisingly, the are many Shahed kills (44,000), but even more other UAV tpyes, 3,500+ cruise missiles, 7,000 Lancets.

Пішки від Краматорська до Костянтинівки під роєм FPV та КАБами. Один день пекла з бійцями 24 ОМБр YouTube video by Ukrainian Witness

Woops, and here's the full video. Easy to put on the subtitles, and there's a guide to different incidents which include coming under attack 4x times. An impacting way to grasp realities of the war near frontline in this phase of the war, and tactical problems in need of addressing.

This real-life 'road trip' shows intensity of Russia's deep drone interdiction on lines of communication 10-20km behind Ukraine frontline. Shocking & often moving. Note drone net shrouding 'road of life.' Lots of small arms fire all vs drones. Btw, 'cab'=KAB glide bombs. 'Lightning'=Molniya drone.

While invading Ukraine was an ultimate FAFO moment for Russia's military, it unfortunately has done a lot of that second "Finding Out" part to improve capabilities going forward, particularly to keep aviation losses at acceptable levels post-2022 (at least for aircraft not on the ground...)

Just How Dumb Are Russia's Winged Smart Bombs? The new weapons are a response to setbacks in Ukraine—and a potentially troubling sign of things to come.

Since introduction in Winter 2022-2023, UMPK glide bomb kits have enabled Russian attack jets to conduct deadly frontline strikes from beyond air defense zone. At least satellite-guidance accuracy reportedly decreased in 2025 due to new Lima jammers.
www.popularmechanics.com/military/wea...

Keď v bunkri odpočítavaš sekundy a dúfaš, že ešte nie sú posledné - Marcel Rebro - (blog.sme.sk) Pred kĺzavou bombou KAB sa nedá skryť, nedá sa utiecť. Ostáva len dúfať, že padne vedľa.

A Ukrainian blog describes what it's like manning a frontline drone command post buried deep underground--and to come under forewarned attack by big KAB glide bombs released by Russian bombers. blog.sme.sk/rebro/spoloc...

Russia’s Cheap New Drone Is a Threat. Here’s How the U.S. Will Defend Itself. It’s a military and psychological weapon. “That’s what makes it really deadly.”

Russia is building 5,000+ Shahed long-range strike drones a month, more than NATO could afford to shoot down using anti-air missiles. Read on for 5 technologies the alliance must field to form a sustainable layered defense against the rapidly proliferating strike drone threat.

Was a teacher assistant in Springfield during my college years, what a disaster to prey on people there in pursuit of Vance's demagogic agenda. Imagine being fine with yourself revoking Temporary Protective Status for refugees from a country known to be in condition of ongoing anarchy.

We could go all the way back to the 1940s and 50s, when the U.S. made nuclear threats to persuade China to end campaigns vs Taiwan! In the modern era, however, it has become more relevant since 2010s due to China's improving military power & pro-reunification party in Taiwan losing influence.

I don't think Xi is insincere in wanting the PLA to be more effective. He can be a harsh authoritarian who also believes he is the one true savior of Chinese national power. Last few decades have also illustrated how large but poorly led/trained militaries have failed other authoritarian leaders.

Irish commando raid on Washington, DC now being prepared. (Sorry, them's the rules now.)

An interesting thread on the organization of non-violent resistance in Minneapolis, undertaken at genuine scale.

Admittedly it's being explicitly sold as furthering the administration's 'policing the Americas' policy, thus excusing lack of weaponry effective vs China and Russia (and Iran etc.) Why bother with missile, then, though? Just buy the original Cost Guard Cutter it's based on.

The described armament package is essentially same as on current Litoral Combat Ships deemed unsatisfactory for lack of armament and anti-submarine capability! LCSs the Navy unfit to deploy close to the mighty Iranian military. Literally, what does this ship in this form bring to the table?2/2

Navy's New Frigate Program Makes Big Bet On Containers Loaded With Missiles The Navy is pushing back on concerns about the built-in capabilities of FF(X) frigates, including the lack of a vertical launch system array.

The new 'frigate' has anti-ship missiles, but no serious air defense (hope those ships you're attacking can't shoot back--admittedly, that's this admin's style.) And no organic anti-submarine gear. So an all-round bad escort! What's this good for, besides anti-drugs/piracy? 1/2

Famously imperfect--and yet, less imperfect (and infinitely less corrupted) than any alternative, and a gateway to wondrous tangential learning. A monument to a different internet that could have been. Use it, contribute to it! (And don't skimp on including the annoying citations.)

Of course the U.S. military is highly capable at SEAD and could have dealt with a functional integrated defense system, with greater effort. But the bar of suppression needed to insert troops by *helicopter* with high chances of no casualties is higher than for even non-stealth jets.2/2

Russia’s Fearsome Arsenal Fizzled in Venezuela. Here’s Why.

Some evidence on why not to extrapolate too much about air defense from the U.S. kidnapping op--a strong majority of those defenses were apparently non-functional! And there was a nearly unbelievable degree of unseriousness and unpreparedness in the Venezuelan military. 1/2

Inside Unmanned Systems December 2025/January 2026 Page 34

Also, an error of my own making in the text to note: regarding the homebase of B-2s bomber, for no good reason I wrote 'Offutt Airbase in Nebraska' when it's of course White Airbase in Missouri (I've even seen them fly in state, ha ha.) Brain farts strike again.

Inside Unmanned Systems December 2025/January 2026 Page 32

Along the way we've looked at the pioneering solutions developed in Ukraine which under terrible duress has evolved arguably the most cost-efficient drone killing apparatus. This piece is indebted to comments by @sambendett.bsky.social and @cnas.bsky.social's 'Countering the Swarm' report.2/2

Inside Unmanned Systems December 2025/January 2026 Page 26

By 2025, huge deficits in cost-effective drone defenses (C-UAS) in NATO militaries were starkly illustrated. This in-depth piece looks at the cost-curve problem, the mixed performance of U.S. C-UAS in Middle East, & diverse technical, tactical and doctrinal solutions to address the drone threat.1/2