Excellent piece.
06.03.2026 12:21
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Excellent piece.
So far, I wd say Putin is winning the Gulf War. Oil prices are up, & the US has relaxed pressure on India to stop buying fm RU, so budget revenues will increase, making the war easier to fund. And UA will now be an even lower priority for US air defence munitions, so an easier target for RU strikes.
The US-Israeli attack on Iran, with its destabilising economic & security effects on Europe, just underlines my point: the UK shdn't stay leashed to a dangerously unpredictable US that doesn't even calculate its own interests, let alone ours, before bombing. And the EU wd be stronger with the UK.
A recent paper by @cerianbond.bsky.social asks: “EU-UK relations: Will 2026 be the year to reset the reset?”
It concludes by saying the EU and UK need a “fundamental rethink of how they can enhance their security and prosperity.” buff.ly/AbQe64g
Now applicable to Iran as well as Ukraine, I suspect...
Britain and its allies and partners must treat Ukraine’s security as their own: if Ukraine loses, Putin will target another state, perhaps a NATO ally wrote @cerianbond.bsky.social for Britain's World.
buff.ly/qZmjpY1
Read @cerianbond.bsky.social's recent insight here: buff.ly/6RWmjER
European leaders should learn whatever they can from #Ukraine’s battlefield and defence industrial experience and, where feasible, integrate European and Ukrainian forces. 🇺🇦 🇪🇺
New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @cerianbond.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/6RWmjER
🎙️“Is the defence industrial sector optimistic that they can innovate their way through the problems of this war?” @cerianbond.bsky.social asked in the latest #CERpodcast.🎙️ 🇺🇦 🇪🇺
Listen here: buff.ly/9p8ud82
That’s OK - they can award him their inaugural War Prize as well.
!["[E]uropean leaders should not look at the dogged endurance of Ukraine’s armed forces and civilians over the last four years and assume that it is infinite, and that Putin will eventually be forced to give up his attack on Ukraine. No-one knows the limit of Ukrainian stubbornness, but there is one. To paraphrase Ernest Hemingway, Ukraine could be defeated “gradually, then suddenly”. To prevent a decisive Russian breakthrough, European leaders should be prepared to intervene militarily to help Ukraine, without waiting for a ceasefire – starting by deploying air defence assets, including aircraft based in Poland and Romania, to reduce the impact of Russian strikes on Ukraine’s civilian and industrial infrastructure."](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:yyvhrfzdkubfs2w5nb4gwzci/bafkreigkwzdaq7oy6stzxrnchvlagmampsn5nw5yhmxja2yb7ofo63qhve@jpeg)
"[E]uropean leaders should not look at the dogged endurance of Ukraine’s armed forces and civilians over the last four years and assume that it is infinite, and that Putin will eventually be forced to give up his attack on Ukraine. No-one knows the limit of Ukrainian stubbornness, but there is one. To paraphrase Ernest Hemingway, Ukraine could be defeated “gradually, then suddenly”. To prevent a decisive Russian breakthrough, European leaders should be prepared to intervene militarily to help Ukraine, without waiting for a ceasefire – starting by deploying air defence assets, including aircraft based in Poland and Romania, to reduce the impact of Russian strikes on Ukraine’s civilian and industrial infrastructure."
"Ukraine’s security is Europe’s security", is one of the points in a brilliant article by Ian Bond, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform. Ambassador Bond was previously with the UK's diplomatic service. @cerianbond.bsky.social @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social
www.cer.eu/insights/fou...
Four years on, what should 🇬🇧 do to expedite a 🇺🇦 victory?
✍️ Dr Przemyslaw Biskup, @cerianbond.bsky.social, John Foreman CBE, @lanoszka.bsky.social, @so3brocktree.bsky.social, @philippelefevre.bsky.social, @james-rogers.bsky.social and Dr Marc De Vore
#BritainsWorld #BigAsk
Policy priority 4 after four years of Russia’s war against #Ukraine: Have plans to cope with minimal US support if the war spreads to #NATO territory. How would Europeans deter Putin from escalating to military intervention in a NATO country?
Read here: buff.ly/6RWmjER
🎙️ “We're seeing so much innovation in the defence sector now because it's a matter of survival”, Andy Hunder told @cerianbond.bsky.social in the new #CERpodcast 🎙️ 🇺🇦
Listen here: buff.ly/9p8ud82
Policy priority 3 after four years of Russia’s war against #Ukraine: Increase & enforce all forms of economic pressure on Russia. Sanctions enforcement remains the weak link.
New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @cerianbond.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/6RWmjER
Where did 'travaille' come from? 'Travail', naturellement!
“The Supreme Court ruling means allies will now refuse to ratify his one-sided trade deals or will slow-walk the implementation,” says @johnspringford.bsky.social of the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social.
buff.ly/uF1AMad
Wasn't that "Travaille, famille, patrie"? Reform not so interested in working, perhaps?
“65% of Ukrainians state that they are prepared to endure the war for as long as necessary”, Victoria Vdovychenko told @cerianbond.bsky.social in the latest episode of the #CERpodcast.
Listen here:
Policy priority 1 after four years of Russia’s war against #Ukraine: Change the narrative around Ukraine. Leaders should acknowledge its changing role – from aid recipient to security partner. 🇺🇦
New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @cerianbond.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/6RWmjER
Highlighted also by Andy Hunder of AmCham in Ukraine in the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social podcast: Russia is pounding US firms' facilities in Ukraine, with no discernible reaction from Trump. Tempted to think maybe they aren't his donors, but I'm sure it can't be that... www.cer.eu/media/cer-po...
Defence spending as a percentage of GDP has been going up for some years, but very slowly. There's talk of accelerating progress towards NATO's new 3.5 per cent target, but the Treasury still seems to be blocking it. So, yes, we could & should do better
I suppose I should be grateful that the US didn't join Russia in voting against like last time. I note that Hungary also abstained, showing (again) that as long as Orban is in power it will be a very unreliable ally.
Ukrainians gathered in front of the Natiinal Gallery, London, marking the 4th anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion.
Trafalgar Square, 24.2 26.
Ukrainian singer Ruslana.
Trafalgar Square tonight not only has Gen Valerii Zaluzhnyi, but past Eurovision Song Contest winner, Ruslana!
Al Carns MP, Minister for the Armed Forces, speaking at event to mark 4 years of Russia's full-scale war on Ukraine in London.
Defence Minister Al Carns says supporting Ukraine isn't charity - it's about the UK's security, and Russia mustn't be allowed to succeed.
Ukrainian Ambassador to the UK Valerii Zaluzhnyi thanks the UK for its support, and says that Ukraine survived because its friends helped. To which I'd say yes, but we & our allies need to do so much more! If we had been bolder and more decisive in 2022 Ukraine might not be suffering 4 years later.
Ukrainian children in London sing the national anthem on the 4th anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion. Let's hope they will soon be able to return to a peaceful land, free of Rusisian forces & Russian violence.
Well, I hope they correct the injustice quickly!
That's outrageous!
