Henrik Singmann

Can AI Replace Social Science Researchers? No. No it can't. Come on, now.

New post: Can AI Replace Social Science Researchers? (No. No it can't. Come on, now.)

davekarpf.beehiiv.com/p/can-ai-rep...

Brutal, but evidently correct in that context. The whole piece is worth reading.

Understanding Maximum Likelihood Estimation A tool to understand maximum likelihood estimation

Do you know any other cool interactive applications that illustrate some statistical concept?
#rstats #stats
@rpsychologist.com

rpsychologist.com/likelihood/

This is brilliant.

After a few days of #rstats shitposting, we are lucky enough to get a thoughtful, content heavy, and, dare i say it, constructive contribution to the discourse.

If you live in London, consider becoming a subscriber to this independent journalistic substack. Absolutely worth it as this story shows.

UZH: Postdoctoral Position Research at the Zurich Cognitive Psychology Unit focuses on capacity limits of cognition, in particular working memory, long-term memory, and attention, which we investigate with experimental, individ...

We're looking for a postdoc starting this summer to join our efforts in understanding the capacity limits of cognition: jobs.uzh.ch/job-vacancie...

After watching Richard McElreath's lecture on measurment models, I got comparatively more excited about my working paper with Yaroslav on accounting for non-classical measurement error in belief-updating experiments and my foray into measurement and time-series econometrics.

A thread.

#EconSky

on the roof

Postdoctoral researcher (80%) in Cognitive Psychology, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland

The successful applicant will work with the head of the Cognitive Psychology Unit, Klaus Oberauer, and the Cognitive Psychology team.
Application deadline: 20 March 2026

#Statistics thought of the day: If you think you can find new disease subtypes by empirically clustering patients, think again: www.fharrell.com/post/cluster... #StatsSky

Book cover. A silhouette of a person's head filled with colorful geometric shapes—perhaps symbolizing cognitive resources or deployment thereof. The style is attractive and modern, if generic. text: The Rational Use of Cognitive Resources Falk Lieder, Frederick Callaway, Thomas L. Griffithts

I'm excited to announce that I had my first (co-authored) book published today! "The Rational Use of Cognitive Resources" with Falk Lieder and Tom Griffiths (@cocoscilab.bsky.social ). You can read it for free! (see thread)

1.1 Introduction - Accessibility in Data Visualization - Open Visualization Academy

You can catch my full, open course on accessibility in visualization here:
openvisualizationacademy.org/courses/acce...

🚨New paper altert🚨

As a synthesis of my PhD research, we revisited the prevailing assumption about the mechanisms underlying repetition learning, and re-evaluated these assumption in light of recent findings.

Now out in Perspectives on Psychological Science:
doi.org/10.1177/1745...

The decline effect (Protzko & Schooler, 2017) is an observed phenomenon where effect sizes in experiments apparently diminish in size from the first paper demonstrating the effect to later replications. This has been taken as a symptom of an unhealthy scientific ecosystem, possibly caused by the "winner's curse" (selection on significance and regression to the mean), publication bias or opportunistic analyses. I show that decline effects can arise as an artifact from a much simpler source: the original article determining the sign of the effect in a meta-analysis. Moreover, such artifactual decline effects will show correlations with some of the same experimental properties that one would expect from biases from poor behavior, such as the sample size of the original study.

New draft: "Decline effects, statistical artifacts, and a meta-analytic paradox". In this manuscript I show how a common practice in meta-analysis (eg the 2015 Open Science Collaboration) creates artifactual signatures of poor scientific behavior. PDF: raw.githubusercontent.com/richarddmore... 1/x

Academics vying for a spot in Epstein‘s world. There are so many. I feel the need to make a thread, so I don’t keep confusing them. 1/

Don't You Know That You're Toxic? How Influencer‐Driven Misinformation Fuels Online Toxicity Research on misinformation has focused on message content and cognitive bias, overlooking how source type shapes toxic engagement. This study addresses that gap by showing that influencer-driven misi...

I haven't read the study, but hat-tip for what I really hope is a Britney reference in the title. <chef's kiss>

You can test new tech ideas using the Seinfeld Test

Would the product eliminate the plot of an episode? (Google maps, cell phones, paypal, battery packs)

Good tech.

Would the product inspire new Seinfeld plots? (NFTs, AI chatbots, crypto currency, blindboxes, metaverse land sales)

Bad tech.

IWW IU 520 (Railroad Workers) PRESENTS: TROLLEY PROBLEM SOLUTION "Slip the switch" by flipping it while the trolley's front wheels have passed through, but before the back wheels do. This will cause a controlled derailment bringing the trolley to a safe halt.

Union workers solved the trolley problem, you're welcome

Bayesians Commit the Gambler's Fallacy The gambler's fallacy is the tendency to expect random processes to switch more often than they actually do—for example, to assign a higher probability to heads after a streak of tails. It's often ta...

Great paper giving a rational explanation for the gambler's "fallacy".

Confusion in gaming disorder measurement Abstract. Measurement is important for the scientific programmes of addictive behaviours. In the present study, we investigated the measurement of gaming d

First post of the year, new paper out today: we present possibly the biggest case of systematic Measurement Schmeasurement in tech use. It seems that most studies on gaming (videogame) addiction/disorder haven't measured gaming after all. This research took years, so long 🧵 doi.org/10.1098/rsos...

New preprint by @semihaktepe.bsky.social 🎉

We compare ANOVA/SDT/GLMM for binary judgments in 20 datasets of the truth effect. #lme4

Main conclusion:
"GLMMs are a theoretically sound and practically robust method and thus superior for analyzing binary judgments in social and cognitive psychology.”

How many versions of the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) exist? And how much does this affect research using the IGT? More than you might think. 🧵

Most popular decision-making models assume that cognitive processes are static over time. In our new paper in Psych Review, we offer a simple extension to evidence accumulation models that lets researchers account for systematic changes in parameters across time 📈

psycnet.apa.org/fulltext/202...

Here it is! #rstats

Too many significance tests!!

Made this little graphic for my #stats class, showing the various kinds of (N)HST and how interpreting confidence intervals can replace all of them.

Made with #rstats #ggplot (duh)

I am happy to share that our preprint “𝗪𝗼𝗿𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗖𝗶𝗿𝗰𝘂𝗹𝗮𝗿 𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮: 𝗔 𝗧𝘂𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗖𝗼𝗴𝗻𝗶𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗕𝗲𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗶𝗼𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵” is now out.

Huge thanks to @bayslab.org, Julie de Falco, Zahara, @cjungerius.bsky.social, @ivntmc.bsky.social, Adam, and Xiaolu for the lovely collaboration.

doi.org/10.31234/osf...

How to create a more accessible line chart – Nicola Rennie The default settings for chart software are not guaranteed to be accessible, and often need to be adapted for your own chart. In this blog post, we’ll transform a line chart to make it more accessible...

👀 New blog post! 👀

Ever made a *spaghetti* line chart and wondered how you can make it more accessible and more aesthetically pleasing at the same time? 📈

Read this blog post: nrennie.rbind.io/blog/accessi...

#DataViz #RStats