@carbontracker
Carbon Tracker is an independent financial think tank that carries out in-depth analysis on the impact of the energy transition on capital markets and the potential investment in high-cost, carbon-intensive fossil fuels. Visit: https://carbontracker.org
“Oil companies are no longer growth plays.” That’s not alarmism. It’s the new market reality.
Mark Campanale shares blunt evidence #FossilFuel giants are shrinking. Not because they want to. Because the clean energy future is moving on without them
www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bBj...
Our new report with Carbon Transition Analytics shows Tata Steel’s European arm has a clear decarbonisation plan—while the Indian arm does not. $24bn in Indian projects face high carbon lock-in risk unless ‘future proof’ blast furnaces are deployed carbontracker.org/reports/meas...
Tata #Steel's 2045 #NetZero goal is bold—but our latest report with Carbon Transition Analytics shows a mismatch with coal-heavy expansion plans in India. Without a credible shift to cleaner blast furnace tech, $24b in new projects risks locking in high #emissions carbontracker.org/reports/meas...
Report: buff.ly/1PGCOK2
As India’s top steel exporter, JSW also faces rising carbon costs abroad. Poor tech choices now risk CO₂ targets and long-term profitability.
JSW Steel’s CO₂ goals meet domestic requirements but a credible transition plan must provide more detail on its blast furnace abatement and phase-out strategy, since these assets are long-lived and resource-intensive.
Growing steel production is vital for India’s development goals. Avoiding carbon lock-in during this rapid expansion will require support from transition finance, concessional finance, and government initiatives. To access, Indian steel companies need credible transition plans.
Read the full report: buff.ly/L7rs2an
Key investor questions:
➡️ Where are the interim targets?
➡️ How is green capex being disclosed?
➡️ Will governance and lobbying be aligned with net zero?
➡️ Can BEV scaling hit 2030 goals?
Why this matters to investors: BMW’s credibility on transition execution affects its ability to meet targets, manage risks & protect margins.
But:
➡️ No short-term emissions milestones
➡️ Limited financial transparency on green capex & ICE phase-out
➡️ Inconsistent climate lobbying
➡️ Weak ESG governance & missed incentive targets
BMW is a relative leader in the EV transition, with robust 2030 targets and progress on BEV rollout via its Neue Klasse platform (launching 2025).
It’s important to note that like NGFS long-term scenarios, the short-term scenarios exclude the plausible possibility of triggering climate tipping points – thus ignoring the potential for catastrophic risks carbontracker.org/new-ngfs-sho...
Default probabilities rise significantly for high-capital and high-debt sectors, with increases of more than 10 percentage points in the power supply sector carbontracker.org/new-ngfs-sho...
NGFS short-term scenarios explore possible occurrence of a sequence of plausible but extreme weather events in one region, causing substantial GDP losses, with effects on the global economy. Losses peak at 12.5% of GDP in Africa carbontracker.org/new-ngfs-sho...
Our latest blog reviews Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) short-term climate scenarios, which following user feedback from the financial community, provide 4x narrative scenarios – exploring economic damages from climate change 2025-2030 carbontracker.org/new-ngfs-sho...
“There simply isn’t enough land available for the level of afforestation needed to offset #FossilFuel-related #emissions” says Rich Collett-White at Carbon Tracker. “Pursuing anywhere near that level of afforestation risks increasing food prices" www.newscientist.com/article/2485...
In the U.S there are approx. 2.3m unplugged wells that could cost $280b to address. #Oil well plugging has been undermined by insufficient financial assurances, free transfer of wells & lax enforcement carbontracker.org/reports/solv...
Oil companies are walking away from wells before the clean-up bill comes due, transferring financial risks onto the state & taxpayers. The solutions framework seeks to solve this problem carbontracker.org/reports/solv...
Growing #steel production is vital for India’s development goals. Avoiding carbon lock-in during this rapid expansion will require credible transition plans. Learn more: carbontracker.org/reports/meas...
Rob Schuwerk, report author said: “California has taken a critical first step. It should now ensure that all [#oil🛢️ well] operators – not just sellers – are financially prepared to fulfil their clean up responsibilities” carbontracker.org/reports/clos...
New report: ‘Closing the Oil Well Transfer Loophole’ from Carbon Tracker & Redwater Insights finds substantially reduced flow of low-producing #oil🛢️ wells to lower-producing companies, reducing taxpayer risk buff.ly/WJnifDZ
Saudi Aramco’s $10b dividend cut the canary in the coalmine for petrostates🛢️
Warning sign of structural strains which will test fiscal sustainability of #oil export nations. With fiscal breakeven >$90 barrel & prices closer to $60, to cut payouts? or pile on more debt? www.ft.com/content/19cb...
Are investors Flying Blind on #ClimateRisks in audit reports?
'Disabling Autopilot on Audit reports' analyses 140 audit reports from highly #carbon-exposed companies
🔍 Most audit reports lack transparency on whether auditors assessed #ClimateRisks carbontracker.org/reports/flyi...
Climate backsliding has increased in recent weeks, coinciding with US🇺🇸 administration shifting from renewables to oil & gas production. Equinor & Eni both increased production targets within 1month of the Trump administration’s day1 ExecOrders backing O&G buff.ly/tI1ukBF
Report author Rich Collett-White said:“Most #oil & #gas producers are ignoring peaking demand & remain far from Paris-alignment. Investors — whether they have a climate mandate or not — should think twice about locking in risky new production for short-term gain” carbontracker.org/reports/pari...
'Paris Maligned 3' reviews #oil & #gas🛢️companies & finds they’re not aligned with Paris climate goals, based on 6 key metrics:
-#Methane (new),
-Investment Options,
-Recent Project Sanctions,
-Production Plans,
-#Emissions Targets,
-#ExecPay,
buff.ly/tI1ukBF
European producers bp, #Eni, #Equinor, #Shell & #Total scores have declined since 2024 as a result of increased & longer-term, production targets. #bp fell from top position, prev a “D” grade, down to an “F”, having abandoned its target to curb O&G🛢️production 📈 buff.ly/tI1ukBF
Today we’re releasing the 3rd vintage of our ‘Paris Maligned’ report & scorecard - enabling investors to judge whether #oil & #gas companies are aligned with the #ParisAgreement - based on 6 key metrics (now incl #methane)
📢 Asset owners, asset managers, & proxy advisors should engage with O&G companies in their portfolios to demand more clarity on #ExecPay & have their “say on pay” during the 2025 #AGM season carbontracker.org/reports/crud...
