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Stephen Kirchner

@insteconomics

Economist in Sydney, Australia. Personal account, usual disclaimers. If you like my short form content, you will just love my long form newsletter: https://stephenkirchner.substack.com/

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Latest posts by Stephen Kirchner @insteconomics

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Holiday reads #1: Review of "The Man Who Knew: The Life and Times of Alan Greenspan" Great bio, shame about the narrative

Alan Greenspan turns 100 on Friday. That's as good a time as any to re-up my rehabilitation of Greenspan, based on Sebastian Mallaby's 2016 biography open.substack.com/pub/stephenk...

06.03.2026 01:52 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Holiday reads #1: Review of "The Man Who Knew: The Life and Times of Alan Greenspan" Great bio, shame about the narrative

Alan Greenspan turns 100 on Friday. That's as good a time as any to re-up my rehabilitation of Greenspan, based on Sebastian Mallaby's 2016 biography open.substack.com/pub/stephenk...

06.03.2026 01:52 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Yeah, in practice here the measure of operational success is just, "is it safe to navigate the Strait of Hormuz?"

If the answer is 'no,' then you haven't yet achieved the objectives.

06.03.2026 00:55 πŸ‘ 83 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

Home by Christmas is what I am hearing.

06.03.2026 00:56 πŸ‘ 332 πŸ” 34 πŸ’¬ 12 πŸ“Œ 0

World Book Day repost

05.03.2026 09:04 πŸ‘ 9 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Ahhh I see it is parental shame day

05.03.2026 09:01 πŸ‘ 128 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 14 πŸ“Œ 0

Your periodic reminder that saving is a residual measure, not the start of a causal chain. Individuals decide on how much to spend. Saving equals income less consumption. It’s an outcome not an impulse.

04.03.2026 08:45 πŸ‘ 16 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0

What happened to "Trump will dampen things down ahead of the midterms"

02.03.2026 10:23 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Is the extra interest in Anthropic/Claude at the expense of OpenAI affecting Claude API response times? Asking for a friend.

02.03.2026 07:45 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Decapitation, Epic Fury and the Unknown Insights and questions from the initial phase of the new U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran.

"This poses an existential threat to the Iranian regime, and they will throw everything at America & Israel. They will be seeking to survive as a regime. If they do, it will be a victory for them. It would also be a problem for the Trump administration." mickryan.substack.com/p/decapitati...

02.03.2026 06:12 πŸ‘ 195 πŸ” 63 πŸ’¬ 10 πŸ“Œ 8
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Testing Tripwire Theory Using Survey Experiments Many scholars and policymakers assume that attacks on forward deployed U.S. troopsβ€”β€œtripwires”—will prompt strong domestic political support for escalation against the attacker. This conjecture inform...

Given rumors about an attack on Embassy Kuwait, I feel obligated to mention that in earlier research we found that casualties among diplomats were viewed as seriously as casualties among soldiers

preprints.apsanet.org/engage/apsa/...

02.03.2026 06:25 πŸ‘ 124 πŸ” 28 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 2

My old landlord made an error and wanted to drop my security deposit off to me directly.

He pulls up to my new building driving a very new Porsche.

That’s who the housing shortage enriches, folks!

Just build more!

02.03.2026 05:14 πŸ‘ 107 πŸ” 14 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1
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Statement on the comments from Secretary of War Pete Hegseth Anthropic's response to the Secretary of War and advice for customers

A statement on the comments from Secretary of War Pete Hegseth.

https://anthropic.com/news/statement-comments-secretary-war

28.02.2026 01:24 πŸ‘ 52 πŸ” 11 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 5

I spent yesterday afternoon teaching my students about the Trump AI strategy that Dean largely wrote, with additional material from his substack. This is a remarkable statement for him to make.

28.02.2026 01:59 πŸ‘ 277 πŸ” 75 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0

There is no equivocation or nuance in Hegseth's statement and policy. He demanded, in his own words, "full, unrestricted access" to a private companies resources and proprietary models. When Anthropic refused, he designated the company as an enemy and enacted economic retribution against it.

27.02.2026 23:21 πŸ‘ 446 πŸ” 111 πŸ’¬ 10 πŸ“Œ 4
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After IEEPA: law and economics Plus, AI versus right-wing MMT; and Australian Q4 GDP growth nowcasts

This week's newsletter: stephenkirchner.substack.com/p/after-ieep...

27.02.2026 20:13 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Supreme Court ruling on tariffs unleashes more than 900 legal challenges Claims for refunds soar after judges rule against Trump administration

Court of International Trade sees hundreds of cases seeking refunds of IEEPA tariff duties paid, with interest www.ft.com/content/365d...

26.02.2026 21:27 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Takaichi-ism at the BOJ | Japan Daily Briefing Look at Takaichi's picks for the central bank's policy board

Japanese PM appoints fiscal reflationists to the BoJ policy board, including Chuo University economist Asada ToΜ„ichiroΜ„, a heterodox Keynesian who translated Hyman Minsky into Japanese observingjapan.substack.com/p/takaichi-i...

26.02.2026 22:29 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Takaichi-ism at the BOJ | Japan Daily Briefing Look at Takaichi's picks for the central bank's policy board

Japanese PM appoints fiscal reflationists to the BoJ policy board, including Chuo University economist Asada ToΜ„ichiroΜ„, a heterodox Keynesian who translated Hyman Minsky into Japanese observingjapan.substack.com/p/takaichi-i...

26.02.2026 22:29 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Supreme Court ruling on tariffs unleashes more than 900 legal challenges Claims for refunds soar after judges rule against Trump administration

Court of International Trade sees hundreds of cases seeking refunds of IEEPA tariff duties paid, with interest www.ft.com/content/365d...

26.02.2026 21:27 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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US Treasury Secretary initiated January's yen-dollar rate check: sources Washington was open to coordinated forex intervention if requested by Japan

US Treasury Secretary initiated January's yen-dollar rate check, according to the Nikkei. Bessent being more interested in intervention than the Japanese MoF tells you something asia.nikkei.com/business/mar...

25.02.2026 21:48 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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US Treasury Secretary initiated January's yen-dollar rate check: sources Washington was open to coordinated forex intervention if requested by Japan

US Treasury Secretary initiated January's yen-dollar rate check, according to the Nikkei. Bessent being more interested in intervention than the Japanese MoF tells you something asia.nikkei.com/business/mar...

25.02.2026 21:48 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Discord cuts ties with Peter Thiel-backed verification software after its code was found tied to US surveillance efforts | Fortune Discord cut ties with its age-verification partner after exposed code fueled federal-reporting concerns, months after a breach hit 70,000 users.

AM I SUPPOSED TO BE SUPRISED? IS THERE ANYONE OUT THERE WITH HALF A FUNCTIONING BRAINCELL AND A PULSE THAT'S SUPRISED??
fortune.com/2026/02/24/d...

24.02.2026 15:53 πŸ‘ 4133 πŸ” 1572 πŸ’¬ 172 πŸ“Œ 127
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Hackers Expose Age-Verification Software Powering Surveillance Web Three hacktivists tried to find a workaround to Discord’s age-verification software. Instead, they found its frontend exposed to the open internet.

Hacktivists tried to find a workaround to Discord’s age-verification software, Persona. Instead, they found its frontend exposed to the open internet, and that was just the beginning.

www.therage.co/persona-age-...

21.02.2026 23:40 πŸ‘ 1229 πŸ” 607 πŸ’¬ 25 πŸ“Œ 58
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Trump raises global tariffs to 15% in wake of Supreme Court loss President attacks judges for a second day as he escalates levies from 10%

President Trump ups the section 122 global tariff rate to 15% for 150 days, effectively trashing the 10% deal done with the UK www.ft.com/content/8b1e...

21.02.2026 21:07 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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How β€˜homeland’ put America on the path to illiberalism A phrase from the 1990s altered America’s sense of itself β€” and its political trajectory

"US was historically strongest when it resisted precisely that form of politics" giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

19.02.2026 21:36 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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SCOTUS decision wipes out nearly three-quarters of Trump’s tariff depredations taxfoundation.org/blog/supreme...

20.02.2026 22:57 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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β€˜Don’t go to the US – not with Trump in charge’: the UK tourist with a valid visa detained by ICE for six weeks Karen Newton was in America on the trip of a lifetime when she was shackled, transported and held for weeks on end. With tourism to the US under increasing strain, she says, β€˜If it can happen to me, i...

Totally appalling way to treat anyone but in this case this woman had not broken any immigration rule at all. And the British consulate were completely and inexcusably useless. Awful and I think deserves some response from the Foreign Office.

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...

21.02.2026 06:15 πŸ‘ 351 πŸ” 131 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 14
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SCOTUS decision wipes out nearly three-quarters of Trump’s tariff depredations taxfoundation.org/blog/supreme...

20.02.2026 22:57 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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GORSUCH: β€œ.. permanent accretion of power in the hands of one man. That is no recipe for a republic.” πŸ‘€

20.02.2026 19:59 πŸ‘ 3914 πŸ” 964 πŸ’¬ 317 πŸ“Œ 217