Michaela Kuefner

Breaking🚨: German intelligence service classifies the entire far right AfD Party as right wing extremist.
This will reignite debate over whether it should be banned.
Expect the AfD to fight this in the courts.
The AfD just doubled its seats in parliament with 20,8% of vote in Feb election.

Join us on Zoom at 3pm CET (9am ET) today for an IPQ Debate on the German election results, featuring
@tomnuttall.bsky.social, @germanpolitics.bsky.social, and @henninghoff.bsky.social.

Register here: dgap-org.zoom.us/meeting/regi...

Germany fast-tracks its military buildup | Berlin Briefing Podcast YouTube video by DW News

Germany scrambles to fill a possible 🇺🇸-sized gap in its defenses

Our first post-election Berlin Briefing -
@rikefranke.bsky.social joins with @ninahaase.bsky.social and @germanpolitics.bsky.social

youtu.be/Nup1ABYb1Mw?...

podcasts.apple.com/de/podcast/d...

Chancellor Scholz arrives in parliament with news of talks with his likely successor Friedrich Merz.
Huge spending package for defence is in the making.
Open question: Will Merz & Scholz ask old or new parliament to decide?
Old: Constitutionally dicey but safe 2/3 majority still available as needed.

Fears over Turkish offensive into Syria grow.

"Whoever wants peace in the region must not undermine the territorial sovereignty of Syria."

German FM Annalena Baerbock warns as she heads to Ankara for talks with Turish FM Hakan Fidan.

Scholz calls end of Assad regime "good news" and calls for "rule of law" in Syria.
The possible impact on Germany‘s February elections is profound.
So far key issue was the bad economy.
Now migration and the question whether/when/how Syrians should return could help the far right.

"Russia must not win"

🇫🇷 President Macron
🇩🇪 Chancellor Scholz
🇵🇱 Prime Minister Tusk vow

- ammunition production on 🇺🇦 soil
- long-range weapons coalition
- more ammunition

at first post PiS "Weimar Triangle" meeting in Berlin.

Defiant unity despite strategic differences.

“What has been committed by Europe and the decisions by the US Congress is not enough” to support Ukraine in fight against Russia.

German Chancellor Scholz calls for action both sides of the Atlantic as he departs for talks with US President Biden at the White House Friday.

French Prime Minister Attal on first trip to meet Chancellor Scholz in Berlin:

-both vow to revive Weimar Triangle with Poland
-France continues to bloc Mercosur
-both to continue Ukraine support, no fresh criticism of France by Scholz today on this.
-recommitment to EU defence including FCAS.

German Chancellor Scholz spoke on the phone with Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu.
Readout says Scholz “stressed”:
- “the urgent need to significantly improve” humanitarian access to Gaza.
- “only two-state-solution offers perspective” of lasting peace
- concern over hostages

In Germany it refers to those who are middle of the road and reject extremism.

“The silent majority must wake up”.

That’s the chilling warning by Germany’s Head of Domestic Intelligence, Thomas Haldenwang.
Facing rising antisemitism and extremism he warns:

“Most people don’t realize how serious the threat to democracy has become.”

Party of German Finance Minister Lindner votes to stay in government.
Narrow majority of 52% of pro business Free Democrat FDP votes to remain in Chancellor Scholz’ coalition, @AFP reports.
Fact that non-binding vote even took place highlights instability of 3-way coalition.

Germany’s opposition conservative CDU Party can’t wait to get out the election posters.
Top court has ruled on details of already planned partial re-run of the 2021 general elections in parts of Berlin.
CDU still hoping for more, as Scholz still struggles with his own coalition.

Scholz presents budget compromise that saves German government from falling apart.
Germany will stick to “black zero” in 2024 budget.
Back door: If Germany “has to react” on Ukraine developments, if “others roll back” support (USA?!) or other “emergencies” black zero override an option.

German government crisis is off the table - for now.
Scholz’ 3-way coalition has reached agreement on 2024 budget.
One month after the constitutional court forced the coalition to make cuts there is a deal. Details to be presented midday.

Just in: Germany‘s far right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has just been declared ”right wing extremist“ in the state of Saxony.
This is now the 3rd state, after Thuringia and Saxony-Anhalt where the AfD is categorized as right wing extremist.
Germany has 16 Federal States.

German Chancellor Scholz hits polling low:

Only 20% satisfied with with his performance

Only 27% say he is capable of the job

Only 17% satisfied with government

Opposition the answer?

52% say conservative CDU/CSU in the lead would be ”just as good/bad!“

@infratestdimap

German Chancellor Scholz lights first Chanukkah light at Brandenburg Gate in Berlin.
Scholz vows to keep working for the release of hostages held by Hamas.
He stresses the Menora belongs “right here” at the heart of the German capital.

”I am very hotblooded and I don‘t give up“ Brazil‘s President Lula says about continuing to try and seal an EU - Mercosur trade deal.
Scholz also vowed to pursue it but has a rather more sober temperament.

🇧🇷 as G20 President on Putin:
“Of course I will invite him!”

At the COP28 Climate Conference in Dubai, German Chancellor Scholz:
- called for renewables to increase 3x by 2030
- launched his “climate club” designed to bring global South on board
- pledged $100M to new lost and damages fund.
He also got a brief break from his coalition’s wrangling back home.

German Chancellor Scholz takes off to COP Climate Summit in Dubai.
Any fresh pledges he makes are provisional.
German budgets 2023 and 24 have to be rewritten after constitutional court scrapped previous planning.
Scholz trimmed COP schedule over coalition trouble back home.

A regional court just ruled that Germany must spend more on ad-hoc measures to meet its climate target of cutting housing and transport emissions by 65% by 2030.
Another factor Scholz‘ 3-way coalition must consider after being forced to redraw the budgets over Constitutional Court ruling.

”You never walk alone“
German Chancellor Scholz promises Germans no benefits cuts in face of emergency budget debacle seeing him €60BN short.
Opposition leader Merz calls Scholz a “plumber of power“ after constitutional court ruled his financial planning ‘unconstitutional’.

In a historic first, Germany’s government has produced a budget that has been ruled unconstitutional.
This - is - dramatic!
What is the recurring threat of falling off the fiscal cliff of a government shutdown to the US, is Germany’s sudden gaping tectonic hole in the budget.

German government keeps stumbling over “black zero” debt commitment.
Chancellor Scholz’ coalition has to postpone the scheduled budget 2024 week next week in parliament.
Reason: A constitutional court ruling that not only blows €60bn hole in budget but also delegitimizes previous budgets.

African leadership line-up with top leaders from Côte d’Ivoire🇨🇮, Kenya🇰🇪, Morocco🇲🇦, Nigeria 🇳🇬 and Senegal 🇸🇳 telling German Chancellor Scholz they want more investment.
Scholz encourages leaders to work on African Free Trade area to attract more trade.
🇩🇪 focus on 🟢 energy.

Germany‘s highest court just ruled against Scholz‘ 2021 fiscal maneuvre that saw € 60 BN redirected from corona to climate funds.
Now his coalition will have to restructure their budgets - fundamentally - to avoid climate policy meltdown.

US Secretary of State Blinken just mapped out some US conditions for Gaza that amount to some tough love for Israel 🇮🇱.

- no forced displacements
- no reoccupation
- no reduction of territory
- end terrorist threat
- Palestinian-led governance

Open question: Day 1 after Hamas!

Tokyo, G7

G7 Foreign Ministers call for “humanitarian pauses and corridors” in Gaza.
Stress “protecting civilians” and “international law” in final statement of their Tokyo meeting.
Question of who should control Gaza after Hamas defeat only discussed behind closed doors.
🇪🇺🇬🇧🇩🇪🇺🇸🇯🇵🇨🇦🇫🇷🇮🇹