Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo

🌊 Finally, there will be an #EGU26 session about the AMOC!

Specifically, about the impacts of AMOC weakening, very broadly defined - from paleo to the future, form observations to modelling, from physics to economics, ...

Please do submit - Looking forward to a great session 😊

More details 👇

Detectability of Post‐Net Zero Climate Changes and the Effects of Delay in Emissions Cessation We examine detectability of global, regional and local climate change measures using millennial-scale net zero CO2 emissions simulations Detectable changes under net zero are found in temperature...

New paper exploring regional and local changes post-net zero and who would experience significant changes. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

Thanks to co-authors @edualastrue.bsky.social Amanda Maycock, Tilo Ziehn @sclark.bsky.social @alexborowiak.bsky.social @nicolamaher.bsky.social

We tested variations to those, with the effect by 2100 still ranging between 5-15 PgC. Also, the changes in the yearly uptake were not limited by atmospheric CO2, showing independence from the amount of emissions across a range of pathways

Weakening AMOC reduces ocean carbon uptake and increases the social cost of carbon | PNAS A weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has been found to be globally beneficial by economic assessments. This result...

Fully agree on the AMOC relevance for ocean carbon uptake! However, our estimation of the potential AMOC weakening carbon-uptake effect this century is one order of magnitude smaller, i.e. ~10 PgC. Still, this would have important climatic and economic implications...
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

Poster advertising EGU26 session ITS2.5/CL0.5, titled "AMOC impacts: Physical, Biogeochemical, and Societal"

Planning to attend #EGU26?
Interested in the impacts of AMOC weakening?
New session alert! 🚨🌊🧪

ITS2.5/CL0.5: "AMOC impacts: physical, biogeochemical, and societal"

Check out our interdisciplinary session description & submit your abstract here: meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU26/sessio...

I convene this session together with @felixschaumann.bsky.social, Maya Ben Yami, Amber Boot, & Oliver Mehling, so please ask any of us if you have questions! 😊

We welcome contributions from very broad AMOC impact types (physical, biogeochemical, or socioeconomic), timescales (paleoclimate, recent past, future projections), forcings (variability, forced trends, abrupt/tipping) & tools (Earth System/regional/simple/economic models, reanalyses/observations) 🧪

Poster advertising EGU26 session ITS2.5/CL0.5, titled "AMOC impacts: Physical, Biogeochemical, and Societal"

Planning to attend #EGU26?
Interested in the impacts of AMOC weakening?
New session alert! 🚨🌊🧪

ITS2.5/CL0.5: "AMOC impacts: physical, biogeochemical, and societal"

Check out our interdisciplinary session description & submit your abstract here: meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU26/sessio...

It was a privilege to attend the Overshoot Conference at @iiasa.ac.at! We had really insightful interdisciplinary sessions on such a fundamental challenge for climate science and policy. Lots of food for thought & work to do! 💡

Also, I'm really grateful to have received the Poster Prize Award! 🏅😊

ESD Ideas: Extended net zero simulations are critical for informed decision making Abstract. Climate changes under net zero emissions will take many centuries to play out, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere and in the ocean and cryosphere. New millennial-length Earth System Mod...

🚨 Interested in climate futures under net-zero emissions? Check out our new ESD Ideas paper!

In the paper, we discuss what the Earth system modelling community can do to improve the understanding of long-term post-net-zero changes 🌍💻

esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...

The paper was led by @andrewkingclimate.bsky.social and included @climatenerilie.bsky.social & Tilo Ziehn 👏🏻

ESD Ideas: Extended net zero simulations are critical for informed decision making Abstract. Climate changes under net zero emissions will take many centuries to play out, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere and in the ocean and cryosphere. New millennial-length Earth System Mod...

🚨 Interested in climate futures under net-zero emissions? Check out our new ESD Ideas paper!

In the paper, we discuss what the Earth system modelling community can do to improve the understanding of long-term post-net-zero changes 🌍💻

esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...

CELLO: Climate Exploration in Lively Liaison with the Ocean From September 16 to 18, 2025, around 220 ocean researchers have met at the CELLO conference organized by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. The contributions covered a wide range of spatial sc...

The conference was a great mix between theoretical, modelling, and observational approaches in understanding the role of the ocean in the climate system, as we celebrate the MPI-M 50th anniversary! mpimet.mpg.de/en/communica...

Photo of the Bucerius Law School building

Picture of the keynote presentation by Jochem Marotzke at the CELLO conference

I was very happy to attend the Cello conference in Hamburg this week! 🌊

A group photo of all participants. Photo: Laura Berta

Grischa Perino and Leonard Borchert giving a talk on their project.

Youssef Ibrahim is honored with the Köppen Award.

One day full of scientific discourse and networking: We used our time at the CLICCS Retreat last week to share the latest research and gather our forces for the next funding phase. Also, we honored our new Köppen Award Winner Youssef Ibrahim - congratulations!

Enhancing communication of climate changes under net zero emissions - Communications Earth & Environment Much of the public discourse around climate changes under net zero carbon dioxide emissions has been focused on global mean temperature changes after emissions cessation. More attention needs to be pa...

In our new paper we discuss how communication of post-net zero climate changes needs to improve and go much further than global average temperature @chrisd-jones.bsky.social @sarahinscience.bsky.social @21stcenturyweather.bsky.social www.nature.com/articles/s43...

New paper alert! 🚨🧪🌊

Do you wonder how Southern Ocean sea ice changes decades after the AMOC substantially weakens? 🧊

Check out our new @jgroceans.bsky.social paper, amazingly led by Rachel Diamond from the @bas.ac.uk

doi.org/10.1029/2024...

Here is a quick summary 🧵 (1/n)

Overall, while the multidecadal changes found here would be smaller than the direct effects from global warming, our study highlights how many of these changes are significant and consistent among different models, while emphasising the global reach of AMOC impacts 💡

(5/5)

We find, as expected, that a weaker AMOC leads to a buildup of heat in the Southern Ocean, warmer temperatures and sea-ice loss 🌡️

More surprisingly, we identify a new tropical-Antarctic atmospheric teleconnection, which explains why there is cooling and sea-ice growth in the Weddell Sea 🏝️🧊

(4/n)

Understanding AMOC stability: the North Atlantic Hosing Model Intercomparison Project Abstract. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is an important part of our climate system. The AMOC is predicted to weaken under climate change; however, theories suggest that it may...

We use the simulations we previously introduced in the NAHosMIP, a multi-model intercomparison of freshwater hosing experiments 🚿 This hosing induces an idealised AMOC weakening so that we can calibrate and separate AMOC impacts

doi.org/10.5194/gmd-...

(3/n)

While several studies have investigated the Southern Ocean response to AMOC changes, the multidecadal Antarctic sea-ice response is still unknown ❓

We investigate Southern Ocean sea ice & temperature changes, along with changes in many drivers, such as heat transport or circulation changes 🔎

(2/n)

New paper alert! 🚨🧪🌊

Do you wonder how Southern Ocean sea ice changes decades after the AMOC substantially weakens? 🧊

Check out our new @jgroceans.bsky.social paper, amazingly led by Rachel Diamond from the @bas.ac.uk

doi.org/10.1029/2024...

Here is a quick summary 🧵 (1/n)

📝 Check out this Kudos summary of our recent ERL study on European heat extremes in long-term net-zero emissions futures! 🧪

link.growkudos.com/1pm179ta9kw

A photo of the lead researcher Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo and a quote: “The bad news: Even if we were to stop emitting greenhouse gases immediately, extreme heat in Europe would continue to occur. The good news: The sooner we achieve net-zero emissions, the sooner we can prevent extremes from getting even hotter for centuries to come. Every year counts.”

🌡️ Europe’s #heat extremes won’t stop, even at net-zero. Each year of delay locks in hotter and more frequent extremes for centuries. Mediterranean heatwaves could even be 30x more likely if the Paris Agreement is reached ten years late. 🧪 iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1... @edualastrue.bsky.social‬

Picture of Colloquium “Changing currents, two decades of observing the AMOC”

Fantastic colloquium today by @eleanorfrajka.bsky.social on the state of knowledge of AMOC observations 🌊 It’s incredible & fascinating how far the field got in the last 20 years 💡 But also, how much there is left to understand & the need for more collaborative AMOC community 🤝

🚨 New paper alert! 🧪

🔥 How would heat extremes in Europe evolve under long-term net-zero emissions?

Find out in our ERL article, co-written with @andrewkingclimate.bsky.social and Tilo Tiehn

iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

Here’s a quick summary (1/n) 🧵

Extreme heat in Europe: every year counts

🗞️ Read here the press release by CLICCS/@cenunihh.bsky.social: www.cliccs.uni-hamburg.de/about-cliccs... (6/6)

💭 Implications

This first assessment of European heat extremes in long-term net-zero futures highlights the need to reduce emissions promptly, as well as better understand the underlying mechanisms and the policy consequences of long-term net-zero changes ⌛️ (5/n)

💡 Key takeaways:

- Even under net zero, Europe might face intensified heat extremes for centuries 🌡️
- Short delays in emissions cessation would result in even more intense extremes 📈
- The path to reach a global temperature target matters for the extreme heat distribution 🥵

(4/n)

📊 How do we address this gap?

We use idealised 1000-year net-zero emissions Earth system model simulations, to capture the long-term evolution across European regions 💻 With different simulations with increasingly delayed emissions cessation, we can study the effect of postponed mitigation 🏭 (3/n)