Oleg Gutyrchik

It's a possible sign of optimism in the stock market, but it's a short-term, pragmatic signal with no basis in the real economy.

It's a possible sign of optimism in the stock market, but it's a short-term, pragmatic signal with no basis in the real economy.

It's a possible sign of optimism in the stock market, but it's a short-term, pragmatic signal with no basis in the real economy. I'm not hoping for anyone to lose their job—this is simply an analysis from the specific perspective of the stock market.

🌐📈 US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick's recent positive comments had minimal market impact. However, the JOLTs report provided optimism: a rise in layoffs suggests a weakening labor market, increasing the likelihood of Fed rate cuts. All eyes are now on Trump's speech at 1 AM.

#EconSky

🌐📈 Higher tariffs drive up consumer prices by increasing the cost of imported goods, fueling inflation.

Yale’s model shows the recent tariff hike could boost inflation by 1.7–2.1% in 2024.

Such regressive measures hit lower-income groups hardest and could dampen GDP growth.

#EconSky

🌐📈 The ISM Manufacturing report revealed a sharp decline in orders with prices rising. The Fed is in a bind: easing policy would fuel inflation, while their mandate targets inflation and the labor market—not growth. Fed officials are now relying on cautious rhetoric to ease concerns.

#EconSky

🌐📈 Markets plunged alongside a falling dollar—a rare and alarming sign. The Atlanta Fed cut its US GDP forecast from 2.8% to 1.5%, signaling a potential severe slowdown in the US economy. When the safe-haven currency drops with risky assets, it raises red flags.

#EconSky

🌐📈 Nonfarm Payroll is expected to trigger high volatility. The report will revise 2024 job figures by excluding undocumented migrants— a technical adjustment that could spark unexpected market moves. Buckle up.

#EconSky

He is pragmatic, and in the mid-term, I expect a slowdown in deficit growth. That said, he is unpredictable...

🌐📈 Trump claims he knows better than the Fed on rate cuts and expects the Fed to heed his advice. This devalues the Fed's role, suggesting that markets may now follow Trump's stance on monetary policy instead of the Fed's. This will be a significant shift in market dynamics.

#EconSky

🌐📈 Markets cracked today due to three main factors:

🔹 Trump actively pushing his foreign and economic policies shocked investors, leading to risk aversion
🔹 ISM Services report showed rising prices
🔹 JOLTs job openings surged, making Fed rate cuts unlikely

#EconSky

🌐📈 Important news starts January 7. Ahead of Trump's inauguration, numerous reports will cause volatility in traditional markets. Markets fear Trump's presidency and the inauguration as negative events, expecting a decline by January 20 and a flight from risk assets.

#EconSky

🌐📈 Two main factors could significantly drop the market after Trump's inauguration:

🔹 Introduction of tariffs negatively impacting economic indicators and scaring investors
🔹 More transparent early-year reports without presidential pressure, giving Trump a low base advantage

#EconSky

🌐📈 Fed Chair Powell affirmed that the Federal Reserve cannot hold Bitcoin and has no plans to change this policy. This stance underscores the Fed’s commitment to traditional monetary tools and highlights its cautious approach toward integrating cryptocurrencies into the financial system.

#EconSky

🌐📈 Fed meeting was tougher than expected. Powell announced a new phase with slower rate cuts, forecasting two in 2025. Significant dissent among FOMC members shows that higher inflation or a stronger job market could have prevented yesterday rate cut.

#EconSky

🌐📈 US factory gate prices rose 0.4% in November, surpassing expectations (0.2%), while jobless claims surged to 242K, exceeding forecasts (220K).

These weaker-than-expected reports cast doubts on Fed rate cuts in 2025. However, a December rate cut remains highly probable at 98%.

#EconSky

Interviews are only approximations. Actual numbers are rising.

What motivated you?

🌐📈 US consumer inflation met forecasts, boosting the probability of a 0.25% Fed rate cut in December to 95%. The market valued stable inflation to support rate cuts, despite earlier fears of a slight rise. Tomorrow’s producer inflation report is expected to have a weaker impact.

#EconSky

🌐📈 The market awaits US consumer inflation reports amid worrying forecasts. Inflation is likely to rise, and yesterday market largely priced in these expectations, reflecting current sentiment.

#EconSky

🌐📈 The US economy added 227K jobs in November, surpassing expectations. Despite the strong report, the market remained steady and bets on December Fed rate cut (86% probability). This surge in confidence might stem from anticipated data revisions or a final rate cut before Trump.

#EconSky

Well, market bets 86% vs 14% now

🌐📈 The FOMC Beige Book indicates a stable economy, making a December Fed rate cut very likely (market expectation at 72%). However, tomorrow's Nonfarm Payroll report could significantly adjust these expectations.

#EconSky

Powell Addresses Shadow Chair Proposal, Reiterates the Fed Isn’t in a Rush to Cut Rates Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell discussed the central bank’s independence, the economy, inflation, and more in his final public comments before the central bank’s last rate-setting meeting this ye...

🌐📈 Real estate data suggests a balanced Nonfarm Payroll on Friday. The ISM services report was mixed: weak indicators but service prices remain steady. Powell indicated Fed rate cuts next year will be slower than most investors expect. The December Fed meeting outlook remains uncertain.

#EconSky

FINAL REPORT: COVID Select Concludes 2-Year Investigation, Issues 500+ Page Final Report on Lessons Learned and the Path Forward - United States House Committee on Oversight and Accountability United States House Committee on Oversight and Accountability

The House COVID Select Subcommittee's final report concludes that COVID-19 most likely emerged from a laboratory in Wuhan, China.

The report can be found here: oversight.house.gov/release/fina...

Sales of Bibles Are Booming, Fueled by First-Time Buyers and New Versions Publishers attribute a 22% jump in Bible sales this year to rising anxiety, a search for hope, or highly focused marketing and designs.

Bible sales are up by 22% this year. What is going on?

www.wsj.com/business/med...

[On-the-spot video+] President 尹 declares martial law lifting..."Without martial arts". [Yoon Suk Yeol / President] My fellow citizens! As of 11 o'clock last nigh...

What was it?? Can anyone explain it, please?

m.ytn.co.kr/en/news_view...

South Korea President Yoon declares martial law South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol on Tuesday declared martial law in an unannounced late night address broadcast live on YTN television.

🚨 Breaking News: South Korean President Yoon has declared martial law in response to escalating tensions within the region. Another hotspot just emerged as if we have not enough... 🇰🇷

www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...

🌐📈 This week: Strong ISM Manufacturing (Mon), JOLTs Job Openings (Tue), Powell's Speech (Thu), and Nonfarm Payrolls (Fri). Market expectations for December rate cuts (up to 74.5% from 52.3%). But robust economy might prevent Fed cuts to avoid overheating, triggering a market correction.

#EconSky

IMHO it's 'because' and not 'while'. Stong economy reduces unemployment and drives salaries triggering inflation.