Nathaniel Rakich's Avatar

Nathaniel Rakich

@baseballot

Managing editor @votebeat.org. Previously senior editor and senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. Email, don't DM: nrakich at votebeat dot org

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Latest posts by Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot

Did Chalamet take Kevin O’Leary’s plane there?

06.03.2026 12:02 👍 12 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Saw this last night, it was delightful

06.03.2026 10:55 👍 31 🔁 2 💬 1 📌 0

I feel like it’s OK to note when a player is a triple shy of the cycle if they do it before the end of the 2nd inning.

(Shohei Ohtani just did that in Japan’s 1st WBC game)

06.03.2026 10:54 👍 28 🔁 0 💬 2 📌 0

The AP projects the Republican primary for Arkansas secretary of state will go to a runoff between Kim Hammer and Bryan Norris. Hammer sponsored a series of laws to restrict ballot initiatives; Norris has Mike Lindell’s endorsement.

06.03.2026 00:00 👍 10 🔁 1 💬 2 📌 0

The AP has projected that the #TX32 Republican primary will go to a runoff between Trump endorsee Jace Yarbrough and 2024 presidential also-ran Ryan Binkley. This is one of the new safe Republican seats created by redistricting.

05.03.2026 23:51 👍 6 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
A screenshot of the NCSL Senate appointments website showing a wait time.

A screenshot of the NCSL Senate appointments website showing a wait time.

The hottest club in DC is the @ncslorg.bsky.social Senate appointments webpage

05.03.2026 19:05 👍 13 🔁 3 💬 0 📌 0

LOL, yes

04.03.2026 23:51 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

The GOP primary in #TX38 (a safe red seat being vacated by Wesley Hunt) is also going to a runoff. Trump endorsee Jon Bonck is way ahead with 47%, but he'll go head-to-head with Shelly deZevallos (currently at 19%).

04.03.2026 20:00 👍 7 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

The AP is projecting that former Rep. Colin Allred (currently at 44% of the vote) and Rep. Julie Johnson (33%) will head to a runoff in the #TX33 Democratic primary.

04.03.2026 19:57 👍 16 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

Our reporter @nataliaecm.bsky.social is in Eastland County, TX, where Republicans insisted on hand-counting their primary ballots—and, as a result, are *still counting.* www.votebeat.org/texas/2026/0...

04.03.2026 17:14 👍 84 🔁 24 💬 3 📌 8
Post image

With Callais not out yet & no opinion likely until late March at the earliest, it is becoming functionally too late for most southern states to redraw maps.

By the end of March, primaries will have happened in TX, NC, & MS & mail ballots will go out shortly after in AL, GA, and LA.

04.03.2026 15:54 👍 64 🔁 23 💬 4 📌 3

Reps. Christian Menefee and Al Green are heading to a runoff in the Democratic primary for the redistricted #TX18. Green ended up doing better than expected, trailing Menefee just 46–44%, so the runoff is anyone's game.

04.03.2026 17:03 👍 15 🔁 2 💬 1 📌 0
Preview
After grueling hand count in 2024, a Texas county tries again When Gillespie County Republicans hand-counted the 2024 primary, it took all night and led to several errors. That didn’t stop them from doing it again in 2026.

I stayed up all night (and I’m still awake) in Gillespie County as workers counted paper ballots by hand in 13 precincts — and county officials worked to turn those tallies into official results. Here’s how it went: www.votebeat.org/texas/2026/0...

04.03.2026 13:05 👍 73 🔁 16 💬 4 📌 1

Pole sitting, electing randos to the Hall of Fame... It was a strange time.

04.03.2026 09:43 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

#TX35 is a reach Democratic target this fall, and we'll have to wait until May to find out who the Dem nominee is. The AP is projecting a runoff between Maureen Galindo and Johnny Garcia.

04.03.2026 09:15 👍 19 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

The AP has called the Republican primary in #TX10 for attorney Chris Gober, who also oversaw Elon Musk's PAC. This is a solid Republican seat being vacated by Rep. Michael McCaul.

04.03.2026 09:14 👍 9 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

The AP has called the closely watched Democratic #TXsen primary for state Rep. James Talarico. He beats Rep. Jasmine Crockett 53–46%.

04.03.2026 07:47 👍 111 🔁 18 💬 0 📌 7

Nope. This district didn't change too much in the redraw; it was Trump+18 before and Trump+18 after.

04.03.2026 06:57 👍 4 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

The AP is also projecting a GOP runoff in #TX09, one of the new solid-red seats created by redistricting. Trump endorsee Alex Mealer leads with 37%, but hard-right state Rep. Briscoe Cain is close behind with 31%. (Old friend alert: former Rep. Steve Stockman is in 3rd with 17%.)

04.03.2026 06:50 👍 15 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

The AP is projecting a runoff in the GOP primary for #TX23, where scandal-plagued Rep. Tony Gonzales and YouTube gun influencer Brandon Herrera each have 43%. (In fact, they're currently separated by just 4 votes, although it doesn't matter who finishes first.)

04.03.2026 06:45 👍 20 🔁 3 💬 1 📌 0

Rep. Dan Crenshaw becomes the first incumbent to lose renomination in 2026. The AP has called the #TX02 GOP primary for state Rep. Steve Toth, a Freedom Caucus guy. In the end, it wasn't close: 57–39%.

04.03.2026 06:41 👍 35 🔁 4 💬 0 📌 1

There was some thought that Rep. Sylvia Garcia (D) might be vulnerable in the primary after her #TX29 was significantly redrawn. But the AP has just projected that she has defeated former state Rep. Jarvis Johnson 57–38%.

04.03.2026 06:30 👍 33 🔁 7 💬 0 📌 0

The AP has called the GOP primary in #TX34 for Eric Flores, a top recruit favored by GOP leaders. He'll face Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D) in what will be one of November's most fiercely contested House races.

04.03.2026 05:49 👍 23 🔁 3 💬 0 📌 0
Results: Progressives win all four of these primaries, ousting incumbents Cunningham, Willingham, and Majeed, while Pierce held off Wray’s comeback.

Results: Progressives win all four of these primaries, ousting incumbents Cunningham, Willingham, and Majeed, while Pierce held off Wray’s comeback.

extraordinary night for state progressives in North Carolina

via boltsmag.org/whats-on-the...

04.03.2026 04:17 👍 2594 🔁 564 💬 23 📌 57

The AP projects that John Lujan (33%) and Carlos de la Cruz (27%) will advance to a runoff in the GOP primary for #TX35, one of the seats gerrymandered to be a likely GOP pickup.

Notable: Trump's endorsed candidate, De La Cruz, is in 2nd.

04.03.2026 05:07 👍 12 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0
Election results for the Republican primary for Arkansas secretary of state showing Bryan Norris at 34.03%, Kim Hammer at 33.55%, and Cathy Hardin Harrison at 32.42%.

Election results for the Republican primary for Arkansas secretary of state showing Bryan Norris at 34.03%, Kim Hammer at 33.55%, and Cathy Hardin Harrison at 32.42%.

Tight GOP primary for Arkansas secretary of state, the state's top election official. The current leader, Bryan Norris, has been endorsed by Mike Lindell and Michael Flynn.

04.03.2026 05:03 👍 9 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

Steinmann's win is still notable, though, since she'll almost certainly join the ranks of House GOP women. Republicans in recent years haven't nominated many women in safe red seats.

04.03.2026 04:58 👍 8 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Jessica Steinmann has won the GOP nomination in #TX08, a safe red seat being vacated by Morgan Luttrell. This was widely expected, as she sported endorsements from both Trump and Greg Abbott.

04.03.2026 04:57 👍 9 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0

Tejano pop star Bobby Pulido has won the Democratic primary in #TX15. He'll face Rep. Monica de la Cruz (R) in November. This is a Trump+18 seat but Pulido is pretty conservative, so he could make this competitive.

04.03.2026 04:54 👍 69 🔁 16 💬 1 📌 3

One race that won't be affected by the Dallas County mess: Per the AP, Frederick Haynes has won the Dem nomination in #TX30, the dark-blue seat Crockett is leaving behind.

04.03.2026 04:50 👍 51 🔁 8 💬 1 📌 0