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alex williams

@atwilliams

macroeconomist and computer user at http://www.common-wealth.org, editor at www.continuousvariation.com, fellow at stanford, partisan of the republic of letters, nonparametric parametrician

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27.04.2023
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Latest posts by alex williams @atwilliams

wow username truly checks out here

06.03.2026 14:58 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

HUGE payrolls miss, wow

Feb Payrolls -92k vs +55k est/+130k prev
2m net revision -69k
Unemplomyent 4.4% vs 4.3% est/4.3% prev
Avg hourly earn YoY +3.8% vs +3.7% est+/3.7% prev
Jan Retail sales MoM -0.2% vs -0.3% est/0.0% prev
Control group est MoM +0.3% vs+0.3% est/-0.1% prev

06.03.2026 13:30 πŸ‘ 802 πŸ” 235 πŸ’¬ 17 πŸ“Œ 77
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RENMAC: β€œ.. the labor market sucks.”

06.03.2026 13:41 πŸ‘ 355 πŸ” 82 πŸ’¬ 17 πŸ“Œ 3

🎢 where have you gone dr funkenstein

a nation turns its lonely groove to youu 🎢

06.03.2026 13:17 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Happy #JobsDay!

At 8:30 am ET, @usbls.bsky.social delivers one of the most-important signals about how economy is changing

Forecasts’ center:
+50K jobs
Unemployment rate (UR) steady at 4.3%

06.03.2026 13:13 πŸ‘ 25 πŸ” 7 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 2

of course, its probabalistic data compression !

06.03.2026 12:33 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

hopefully markwayne can find someone else to run the kratom store, would be terrible for that critical infrastructure to shut down

06.03.2026 12:30 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

its kinda funny that, as we are re-running the 80s (iran, dementia president, culture boring, etc), the big technology upending everyone's worldview is......Transformers......

06.03.2026 12:11 πŸ‘ 132 πŸ” 18 πŸ’¬ 8 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Taiwan's Modern Miracle The AI Boom Has Delivered a 2nd Economic Miracle to Taiwan, Pushing GDP Growth Above 23%. It Must Navigate Rising Geopolitical & Economic Tensions to Keep it.

NEW from me:

Taiwan's GDP is growing at a 23% annualized rate, driven by record exports as the country's semiconductor industry ramps up to meet AI demand

It's a modern economic miracle, but one that comes with major macroeconomic & geopolitical risks🧡
www.apricitas.io/p/taiwans-mo...

05.03.2026 22:12 πŸ‘ 224 πŸ” 37 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 4

"that immanuel kant you like is coming back in style"

05.03.2026 19:57 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

it is exactly like this

05.03.2026 16:20 πŸ‘ 37 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
A picture of PEW poll on global attitude survey, saying the % who rate the morality and ethics of people in their country as good vs bad, where the US has the worst rankings and Canada the best

A picture of PEW poll on global attitude survey, saying the % who rate the morality and ethics of people in their country as good vs bad, where the US has the worst rankings and Canada the best

Americans: we live in a fallen stateβ€”embroiled by sin, cheating, lying, and evil. You cannot trust anyone, not even those who claim to know you best

Canadians: I love my neighbors and my friends!

05.03.2026 16:09 πŸ‘ 5775 πŸ” 1515 πŸ’¬ 283 πŸ“Œ 512
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The war on Iran is causing gas and oil price explosions.

Our research shows: Fossil fuel prices are the most important prices for inflation and inequality. Energy price shocks are redistribution shocks. The poorer you are, the larger the share of income you spend on essentials.

05.03.2026 15:07 πŸ‘ 72 πŸ” 36 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 4

the Knuth Claude paper is really cool bc it tracks pretty closely Trombley's account of how to think about what you are using with language models:

www.continuousvariation.com/p/what-we-ta...

05.03.2026 15:07 πŸ‘ 10 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I’m reminded of that tweet that says that men were able to successfully cast themselves as the less emotional gender by redefining anger as not an emotion

05.03.2026 02:46 πŸ‘ 691 πŸ” 153 πŸ’¬ 7 πŸ“Œ 2

Good news everyone!

You can now analyze your own posts for semantic novelty from the famous Sichu post, β€˜analyze the semantic novelty’

mino.mobi/novelty

The consequences of my most offbrand post wondering how to relate to people are left to the reader for evaluation

04.03.2026 00:34 πŸ‘ 131 πŸ” 13 πŸ’¬ 16 πŸ“Œ 36

yeah tiktok is 1000% the checkout counter. national enquirer and mars bars

03.03.2026 14:44 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Arguably just as useful now as it was 15 years ago: www.ftrain.com/wwic

03.03.2026 14:33 πŸ‘ 24 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

the web is a customer service medium, thats why its so unpleasant imo

like trying to have a good time with the other people in line to return a defective vacuum and a yeti rambler to target

03.03.2026 13:39 πŸ‘ 30 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1
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Current events confirm the achieved wisdom of time-honored classics in the social sciences.

03.03.2026 12:35 πŸ‘ 955 πŸ” 189 πŸ’¬ 16 πŸ“Œ 8

explains why they remain so uncertain about how long the war will go on for

03.03.2026 05:16 πŸ‘ 15 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0

hatred of the audience, a kind of bad faith

03.03.2026 05:10 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

MPD body cam footage from DOGE raid on US Institute of Peace RECEIVED 😎

I'll be watching and sharing news and takeaways in the coming days. Stay tuned!

02.03.2026 20:15 πŸ‘ 3972 πŸ” 586 πŸ’¬ 48 πŸ“Œ 10

badass, mine removal is so important

02.03.2026 23:19 πŸ‘ 42 πŸ” 9 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

all the more important that it be done by grown up academics than fandom types from the computer too

02.03.2026 23:16 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Total eclipse of the full blood moon is tonight, in case you haven’t checked in on the doom portents lately.

02.03.2026 17:26 πŸ‘ 718 πŸ” 184 πŸ’¬ 26 πŸ“Œ 56
River or sankey diagram showing the allocation of profits from global oil and gas companies to quantiles of the US wealth size distribution via financial system intermediaries, such as asset managers, and categories of ultimate beneficiaries, such as business owners, pension funds and shareholders in listed companies. The scale is hundreds of billions of US dollars, and ultimately 50.4% of profits reaching the US personal wealth distribution go to the richest 1% of households.

River or sankey diagram showing the allocation of profits from global oil and gas companies to quantiles of the US wealth size distribution via financial system intermediaries, such as asset managers, and categories of ultimate beneficiaries, such as business owners, pension funds and shareholders in listed companies. The scale is hundreds of billions of US dollars, and ultimately 50.4% of profits reaching the US personal wealth distribution go to the richest 1% of households.

🚨NEW PAPER🚨
We all know the 2022 energy price shock fueled the cost of living crisis. It also caused a profit bonanza for the very rich. We show the US reaped the largest profits ($377bn) of any country. 50% went to the richest 1%, only 1% to the bottom 50%. A🧡 www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

08.10.2025 16:50 πŸ‘ 507 πŸ” 281 πŸ’¬ 14 πŸ“Œ 39

No discipline, no foresight, no concept of chain of consequences, no capacity to plan, no settled idea of desired end state, just endless rolling crises precipitated by the centre. That’s all the analysis I have for this moment in history.

02.03.2026 10:19 πŸ‘ 173 πŸ” 42 πŸ’¬ 6 πŸ“Œ 2

pronounced "i'm a nuisance"

01.03.2026 21:21 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

translation between domains as a big program

01.03.2026 19:57 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0