Starship will take a bit of time to ramp up, so Falcon 9 likely has a few more years of super high launch cadence. As for if this was a peak, we'll have to wait and see!
31.12.2025 22:48
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Starship will take a bit of time to ramp up, so Falcon 9 likely has a few more years of super high launch cadence. As for if this was a peak, we'll have to wait and see!
We'll be keeping track of progress through 2026, and if 2025 was any indication there will be tons of action each day on McGregor Live (2025 averaged ~4.6 tests per day!)
Watch the tests live at nsf.live/mcgregor and I hope you have a great new year!
McGregor has been testing Stage 2's at a rate where they could hit 185-190 in 2026! SpaceX hasn't shared a goal yet, but I suspect this is more than enough to meet it. It will be exciting to see what they end up going for.
As usual, MVac has a huge surplus. No big insights here, other than MVac production definitely not being a limiting factor (they did 192 full duration tests)
Stage 2 rates are really interesting on a larger scale too. Hitting 168 wasn't a gradual change, but rather a single inflection point. Don't worry about the specific numbers here, just the general trend of the line.
I'd love to know what they did to enable this higher pace.
In total they had 168 full duration Stage 2 tests, 34 more than last year.
The goal was revised to 165, but it seems quite likely they would have reached the original 170 if they hadn't slowed down for the holidays.
Goal beat!
Not only did SpaceX meet their updated goal of 165 Falcon flights this year, they ended the year with a surplus of second stages at the McGregor test site!
Lots of analysis and a 2026 prediction in thread ⬇️
Watch live: nsf.live/mcgregor
@nasaspaceflight.com
Interesting Raptor explosion at McGregor tonight. Seemed to happen during startup - timing we've never seen before.
As always this could be intentional (McGregor's the place they do tests to destruction), or just an unhappy raptor.
@nasaspaceflight.com
nsf.live/mcgregor
The OLM put up a bit of a fight tonight with a small fire inside the ring.
Thankfully no one seems injured and crews were able to quickly extinguish it. They're already back at work cutting it up to make way for the new design!
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nsf.live/starbase
Importantly McGregor and Hawthorne have demonstrated this isn't just a burst rate, but something they can achieve for multiple months.
Assuming weather and launch infrastructure cooperates it looks like they could comfortably aim for an extra dozen or so launches next year!
MVac testing seems to be going great as well. I'm not sure if these are all unique engines or not, but with an apparent surplus of 17 engines they're doing fine either way.
To help achieve this pace, they tested a new Stage 2 every weekday on not just one week, but two weeks!
This was something we'd never seen before and they've now achieved it twice in one quarter. No doubt a big achievement for the teams, averaging a <24 hour cycle time
Looking at the Stage 2 surplus plot, SpaceX's pace this quarter has been closer to 185/year instead of 170!
Whatever the bottleneck was seems to have been eliminated mid-April given the sudden change in direction. It would be super interesting to know what improvements were made
SpaceX has had an excellent quarter at McGregor, with a record 48 Falcon 9 second stages tested.
How does this bode for their 170 flight goal this year? Short answer, quite well! Details in thread
@nasaspaceflight.com
nsf.live/mcgregor
During a visit to NASA’s Johnson Space Center last March, I was confronted with an environment of fear, uncertainty and discrimination which struck me as a troubling moral issue that also raises serious safety concerns. Read all about it here: www.thespacereview.com/article/5060/1
Five Falcon 9 Stage 2's in five days!
Just 3 days, 22 hours, 26 minutes, and 31 seconds from the first to fifth test, highlighting what the McGregor teams are capable of. Typically they test one every two days.
Watch live: nsf.live/mcgregor
@nasaspaceflight.com
A screenshot showing the full satellite image over an OpenStreetMap basemap.
A Planet satellite image of SLC-37.
A Planet satellite image of LC-16.
A Planet satellite image of LC-14.
As part of an effort to gain better coverage of multiple launch pads under construction at Cape Canaveral, I've ordered a high resolution satellite image that covers many of the Space Coast launch pads and made it freely available to everyone to browse.
Quick thread:
SpaceX had an extremely strong 2nd quarter, and if they can keep this pace up they should have enough 2nd stages to meet their goal of 170 Falcon flights.
Following this pace, there will probably be a 2nd stage test today that can be seen live at nsf.live/mcgregor!
MVac testing is another indicator since every 2nd stage needs one. As we've seen before, MVac production/testing is doing great with a surplus of 4 engines.
Even if some engines have been fired multiple times, it's reasonable to assume 2nd stages aren't held up by MVacs.
Interestingly, they've tested 78 2nd stages but flown 81 missions. Perhaps due to the slower start to the year this indicates they've cut a bit into their buffer of 2nd stages.
We don't know how many they had "in stock" at the start of the year, but it must have been at least 3!
This year (blue) is ahead of where they were last year (red), though they're still 6 behind the "ideal" target.
However, since early April they've been testing at a record pace! If they keep it up they will end the year with a surplus of 2nd stages!
Can SpaceX reach 170 Falcon flights?
McGregor tests every 2nd stage, so we can get a look at whether the production/test rate is on track to meet their goal.
The short answer is they're on a solid trajectory - more analysis in thread!
@nasaspaceflight.com
nsf.live/mcgregor
Unless these decisions are reversed, this will be remembered as a disastrous week for @NASA. First, I am not optimistic that whomever this administration nominates next for NASA Administrator will be nearly as qualified or enthusiastic about the agency’s mission as Jared.
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Basically they did the second longest test we've ever seen at McGregor, and by a decent margin as far as Raptor's concerned. What that means is up for discussion, but interesting to see
For some more stats on longest tests, Falcon 9's second stage holds third place with a 454 second test, while MVac sits in 11th place at 390 seconds. The Raptor Vertical stand's longest test puts it in 131st place
New record!
McGregor's Raptor Horizontal stand has beaten its record of 385 seconds with a test today lasting 460 seconds!
This isn't a McGregor test record (that's held by Tripod's 897 second test) but it's a dominant second place.
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nsf.live/mcgregor
Lastly, while this testing data gives insight into their possible launch rate, we don't know what the specific difficulties are. It could be getting materials, production, testing, something else, or all of the above! Even if they don't hit 170 it's still a very impressive rate.
This certainly doesn't put them out of reach of their goal but it does show increasing this rate isn't easy. The rest of the year would need to have a rate of ~178/year to reach 170 total.
Stage 2 data is a bit rougher however. Mid January through late February had an excellent rate of testing, even exceeding 170/year.
Despite this, three dips in testing rate has put the testing deficit at exactly the same point as last year.
Again blue is 2025 and red is 2024
They've done about 6.5 more tests compared to this point last year, and are slightly above their target rate.
Even if a test or two were reruns of the same engine they appear to have a steady testing flow at the target rate
