I think NFL teams would be more successful at the draft if they viewed prospects in "range of outcome" terms rather than focusing so heavily on upside and putting a single grade on a player.
That single-grade approach implies a level of certainty that just isn't real.
I'm gonna be sharing more high-end/low-end comps like this leading up to the draft. I think it's a good exercise to get a better sense of a player's potential career outcomes.
Giving one single player as a comp usually sets expectations too high. Most players fall short of their ceiling.
And yeah, I know Bain won't test like Freeney if he does work out at his pro day. But the way he bends around the edge, he creates such a small target for OTs that he can still fly into the backfield. Add in his speed-to-power ability, and the pass-rush potential is elite (but so was McKinley's)
McKiney was a good pass-rusher immediately. But he could never find a way to be enough of a factor against the run to stay on the field.. and that's a possibility for Bain.
But if he can at least be average vs the run, and further refine his pass-rush repertoire he could be an elite speed-rusher
I've settled on these Rueben Bain comparisons..
Low-end: Takk McKinley
High-end: Dwight Freeney
Zane Durant's "lack of production" needs a little context.
He played 18% of his pass-rush snaps at NT (he's obviously not a NT).
At 3-tech he generated a 7.0% pressure rate
Compare that to others who appear to be ahead of him on draft boards:
Peter Woods - 2.3%
Caleb Banks (2024) - 5.3%
I would not want to attempt to take on Lee Hunter without a little help.
Seems like teams are "overpaying" in draft pick trades this offseason, which is likely a reflection of this extremely underwhelming draft class.
Talked about Omar Cooper on the podcast this week. After seeing his combine numbers I only have more questions.
He has the traits. He had a Heisman QB. He played in an offensive scheme which should have been ideal for his skill set.
So why was his production all over the map?
I would not want to attempt to take on Lee Hunter without a little help.
I don't think so. He was their primary nose tackle when they used on in 2024 also. His role appeared to be pretty similar
Zane Durant's "lack of production" needs a little context.
He played 18% of his pass-rush snaps at NT (he's obviously not a NT).
At 3-tech he generated a 7.0% pressure rate
Compare that to others who appear to be ahead of him on draft boards:
Peter Woods - 2.3%
Caleb Banks (2024) - 5.3%
Artur Sitkowski was playing QB at Illinois in 2022, a student assistant in 2023 and now he's their QB coach (he was co-QB coach last year but now it's all his).
That's a hell of a fast rise for a young coach at a pretty good P4 program 📈
If Caleb Banks isn't a first-round pick it's because of work ethic/effort questions.
There's a tiny list of players who have high-end production and traits in this year's class. Teams will be drafting based on potential alone very quickly and I dont think any DL in this class matches Banks' traits
Not gonna update this immediately, but if I did I think I might not change a single thing other than replacing Rams with Chiefs at No. 29. Pick changed hands, but the player stays.
My favorite memory of working with Lou Holtz was how he was absolutely adamant he could take over the Notre Dame job (this was during the Charlie Weis era) and fix everything immediately. I remember one time in particular eating dinner in the cafeteria before a show and he got fired up about it.
I briefly worked on this show and got to know the three of them a bit.
And as absurd as this show could be, it was only like 25% acting. Coach Holtz and Mark absolutely respected each other, but the bickering was very real. Mark May knew exactly how to get Coach Holtz riled up 😆
Chris was Stanford's o-line coach for awhile after retirement and his daughter (the little girl in the picture above) works for the program now. gostanford.com/staff/kate-d...
Wonder if coaching at his alma mater might be in Drew's future
Drew Dalman's dad Chris was forced to retire at age 30 due to a herniated disk in his neck, following a previous neck surgery earlier in his career.
Can't blame Drew at all for walking away on his own terms. He's now a 27-year-old Stanford grad who's already made $25 million. I think he'll be ok.
Not gonna update this immediately, but if I did I think I might not change a single thing other than replacing Rams with Chiefs at No. 29. Pick changed hands, but the player stays.
So this Rams/Chiefs trades shoots down the possibility Ty Simpson going to LA in the 1st round (it never made sense to begin with, they're obviously still going for another 🏆 with Stafford).
Position coach saying you need to improve your "daily decisions and daily habits" and then you go out and completely tank the season? 😬
Clemson DL coach Nick Eason (10-year NFL vet) had this to say about Peter Woods last summer.
Woods responded with the worst season of his college career.
🔗 www.si.com/college/clem...
Woods more frequently lined up as a two-tech DT. It's a less common alignment, so there's fewer players to directly compare to but..
Among 61 qualifying DL, Woods' 3.1% pressure rate as a two-tech ranked 59th last year.
Peter Woods pressure rate stats when lined up as a three-tech via @sportsinfosolutions.com
👍2023 - 9.8% (51 pass-rush snaps)
🔥2024 - 23.7% (38 snaps)
🤢2025 - 2.3% (87 snaps)
👇
bsky.app/profile/spli...
Who can reply: anyone, nobody, people who can be normal about it.
trying out a new feature, lmk if it works
According to Dabo Swinney, Blake Miller only missed two practices during his Clemson career (and started every game over four years)
Worth noting, however, Clemson OL coach Matt Luke (joined team in 2024) has coached some pretty good pros in college.
A few of his notable OTs to go pro:
Laremy Tunsil
Bobby Massie
Broderick Jones
Also recruited Amarius Mims but only coached him for one year.
Clemson offensive tackles drafted under Dabo Swinney:
Jackson Carman
Isaiah Battle
Brandon Thomas
Chris Hairston
Four (pretty terrible) pros in 17 years.
Blake Miller will attempt to be the outlier this year.
