@howlettm
FRSC. Burnaby Mountain Professor and ex-Canada Research Chair, Simon Fraser University (Canada) & Visiting Fellow Lingnan University (Hong Kong); Ed. Policy Sciences, Policy Design & Practice, Policy & Society, ARPD
Coming soon! With Cambridge University Press - Studying Public Policy: Connecting Theory to Practice, Fifth ed. by Michael Howlett, M. Ramesh and Anthony Perl - June 2026
www.cambridge.org/highereducat...
π¬ One option for #PolicyReform is to #terminate or end a policy, program, or project. However, there are other similar but different outcomes
ποΈ @andreamigone.bsky.social, Alexander Howlett & @howlettm.bsky.social study #DefensePolicy and #military spending in #Canada π
doi.org/10.1093/pols...
ANNOUNCEMENT: The 2025-2026 Lasswell Prize for Best Article in Policy Sciences winner.
"Theorizing the functions annd patterns of agency in the policy-making process" - Giliberto Capano, Maria Tullia Galanti, Karin Ingold, Evangelia Petridou & Christopher Weible
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Just out in issue "From demand-side to supply-side regulation of government consultants: Recent trends in three OECD countries" by Sahar Zaman, Michael Howlett & Andrea Migone, Public Money & Management 26(2):163-173 2026
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
ANNOUNCEMENT: The 2025-2026 Lasswell Prize for Best Article in Policy Sciences winner.
"Theorizing the functions annd patterns of agency in the policy-making process" - Giliberto Capano, Maria Tullia Galanti, Karin Ingold, Evangelia Petridou & Christopher Weible
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Just out and open access in Policy & Society - " Policy termination in state-driven spheres: the role of inter-agency de-alignment" by Andrea Migone , Alexander Howlett , Michael Howlett @howlettm
academic.oup.com/policyandsoc...
This essay provides an overview of statistical methods in public policy, focused primarily on the United States. I trace the historical development of quantitative approaches in policy research, from early ad hoc applications through the 19th and early 20th centuries, to the full institutionalization of statistical analysis in federal, state, local, and nonprofit agencies by the late 20th century. I then outline three core methodological approaches to policy-centered statistical research across social science disciplines: description, explanation, and prediction, framing each in terms of the focus of the analysis. In descriptive work, researchers explore what exists and examine any variable of interest to understand their different distributions and relationships. In explanatory work, researchers ask why does it exist and how can it be influenced. The focus of the analysis is on explanatory variables (X) to either (1) accurately estimate their relationship with an outcome variable (Y), or (2) causally attribute the effect of specific explanatory variables on outcomes. In predictive work, researchers as what will happen next and focus on the outcome variable (Y) and on generating accurate forecasts, classifications, and predictions from new data. For each approach, I examine key techniques, their applications in policy contexts, and important methodological considerations. I then consider critical perspectives on quantitative policy analysis framed around issues related to a three-part βdata imperativeβ where governments are driven to count, gather, and learn from data. Each of these imperatives entail substantial issues related to privacy, accountability, democratic participation, and epistemic inequalitiesβissues at odds with public sector values of transparency and openness. I conclude by identifying some emerging trends in public sector-focused data science, inclusive ethical guidelines, open research practices, and future directions for the field.
Description Explanation Prediction General question What exists? Why does it exist? How can it be influenced? What will happen next? Focus of analysis Focus is on any variableβunderstanding different variables and their distributions and relationships Focus is on X βunderstanding the relationship between X and Y, often with an emphasis on causality Focus is on Y βforecasting or estimating the value of Y based on X, often without concern for causal mechanisms Names for variable of interest β Explanatory variable Independent variable Predictor variable Covariate Outcome variable Dependent variable Response variable Goal of analysis Summarize and explore data to identify patterns, trends, and relationships Estimation: Test hypotheses or theories and make inferences about the relationship between one or more X variables and Y Causal attribution: A special form of estimatingβmake inferences about the causal relationship between a single X of interest and Y through credible causal assumptions and identification strategies Generate accurate predictions; maximize the amount of explainable variation in Y while minimizing prediction error Evaluation criteria β Confidence/credible intervals, coefficient significance, effect sizes, and theoretical consistency Metrics like root mean square error (RMSE) and R^2; out-of-sample performance Typical approaches Univariate summary statistics like the mean, median, variance, and standard deviation; multivariate summary statistics like correlations and cross-tabulations t-tests, proportion tests, multivariate regression models; for causal attribution, careful identification through experiments, quasi-experiments, and other methods with observational data Multivariate regression models; more complex black-box approaches like machine learning and ensemble models
Table of contents Introduction Brief history of statistics in public policy Core methodological approaches Description Explanation Prediction The pitfalls of counting, gathering, and learning from public data Future directions References
New preprint! A general overview of stats in public policy research with this (oversimplified but still helpful) separation of methods into description, explanation, and prediction #policysky
HTML/PDF: stats.andrewheiss.com/snoopy-spring/
SocArXiv: doi.org/10.31235/osf...
Just Out and Open Access! Special Issue of Policy & Society 44(4) Dec 2025 on Politics of Intermediation eds. Jale Tosun, David Levi-Faur, Avri Eitan. Articles on regulation, compliance and collaboration across multiple sectors and countries
academic.oup.com/policyandsoc...
CALL FOR PROPOSALS - Special Issue on Diagnostic Methods in Policy-Making: Abductive Reasoning in Policy Analysis, Practice and Pedagogy Eds. M. Ramesh and Michael Howlett
Just out & Open Access Vol 9(1) of Policy Design and Practice. Articles on regulatory sandboxes, algorithms, accountability, time, lesson-drawing, authoritarianism, policy transfer & India
www.tandfonline.com/toc/rpdp20/c...
Just published - Annual Review of Policy Design 2025. Articles, reports and research of interest to the field from 2025 + classic articles and reviews.
ojs.unbc.ca/index.php/de...
Just Out! New Issue of Policy Sciences (Dec 2025).
link.springer.com/journal/1107...
Articles on complexity science, transgender policy, policy learning, law, leadership, soveriegnty, buzzwords, minipublics & wildlife
New Cambridge Element of Public Policy on AI
"Artificial Intelligence and Public Policy" by Fernando Filgueiras
www.cambridge.org/core/element...
Just Out! New Issue of Policy Sciences (Dec 2025).
link.springer.com/journal/1107...
Articles on complexity science, transgender policy, policy learning, law, leadership, soveriegnty, buzzwords, minipublics & wildlife
Call for Papers Now Out! 2026 Asia Pacific Public Policy Network (AP-PPN) Conference
βInnovating Public Policy for a Sustainable Asia-Pacific: Data, Technology, Trust and
Resilienceβ May 30-31, 2026 Nankai University (NKU), Tianjin
Conference Website: asiapacificppn.orgγMode: In-person only
Just out Wellstead, Adam and Howlett, Michael, "Capacity for What? Elon Musk's DOGE, Public Value Destruction and the Darkside of Policy Capacity" (November 26, 2025). Available at SSRN: ssrn.com/abstract=581... or dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn...
Just out and 100% OA in Policy Design & Practice October Issue 8(4). Articles on
system leadership, wicked problems, AI, digital government, citizen evaluation, aboriginal co-design, food security and local procurement.
www.tandfonline.com/toc/rpdp20/c...
ποΈNew Issue is outβοΈ
Towards a 3β£rd generation of #PolicyAdvisorySystems studiesβ
Co-guest edited by @andreamigone.bsky.social & @howlettm.bsky.social, the new generation studies how different PAS are structured and operatedβor managedβto deliver quality resultsπ
academic.oup.com/policyandsoc...
The Special Issue about 3rd generation Policy Advisory Systems edited by me and @howlettm.bsky.social as just been published in @policysociety.bsky.social Nine OA articles focusing on the future of PAS. @raulpachecovega.bsky.social @gcapano.bsky.social
The introduction by @howlettm.bsky.social, Tullia Galanti, @andreamigone.bsky.social and Giulia Vicentini
discusses how quality of advice and the fluider nature of PAS have become key elements of this 3rd generation. @sfu.ca
academic.oup.com/policyandsoc...
In their article, @andreamigone.bsky.social and @howlettm.bsky.social look at how 3rd generation PAS manage the political and technical risks associated with the production and trasmission of advice.
academic.oup.com/policyandsoc...
Just out & Open Access in Policy & Society 44(3) Sept 2025 -Special Issue "Towards a 3rd Generation of Policy Advisory System Studies" Eds Michael Howlett & Andrea Migone
@howlettm @Andrea_Migone
academic.oup.com/policyandsoc...
Just out & OA in Policy & Society 44(3) Sept 2025 - Special Issue "Towards a 3rd Generation of Policy Advisory System Studies" Eds Mike Howlett and Andrea Migone @howlettm @Andrea_Migone Papers on PAS Quality and Management - Canada EU Germany China Kazakhstan&Kenya
academic.oup.com/policyandsoc...
Just published! Dictionary of Policy Design. By Michael Howlett @howlettm and Alexander Howlett @Suetonius_
www.e-elgar.com/shop/usd/dic...
Just Out and Open Access! Special Issue of Policy & Society on "Malignity in Policy Sciences" eds M. Jae Moon & Tim Legrand. Articles on Zombie Policies, India, Robodebt, Clientelism, Honesty, Emotions, Revolving Doors & Authoritarianism.
academic.oup.com/policyandsoc...
New Issue of Policy Sciences now out: September 2025.
Scroll through content below!
Policy Sciences 58(3) now out. Articles by Thompson et al, van Uffelen et al, Kammerer et al, Boon & Wolf, Ambrose & Imperial, Kim & Ko, Gonnet et al, Durnova et al, and Cairney.
link.springer.com/journal/1107...
Hot off the press! Latest issue of Policy Sciences (Sept 2025) now out. Articles on policy coherence, policy success, collaborative governance, policy emotions, policy innovation and more.
link.springer.com/journal/1107...
Now out in Issue and Open Access - "Beyond evidentiary uncertainty: mitigating political risks in policy designs" by @howlettm & @Andrea_Migone. Policy Design & Practice 8(3) SI on Uncertainty eds. Lewis and Bali
doi.org/10.1080/2574...
Just out and Open Access in Policy Design & Practice. Special Issue on "Navigating Uncertainty in Policy Design" eds. Jenny M Lewis and Azad Bali. Articles on policy tools, policy labs, models, political risks, decoy goals and more.
www.tandfonline.com/toc/rpdp20/8...
