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Simon Donner

@simondonner

Climate scientist, prof at UBC, writer, speaker, aquatic mammal, dragger of sand into the house.

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08.09.2023
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Latest posts by Simon Donner @simondonner

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The drop in the price battery storage is incredible, joining onshore wind and solar as now cheaper than coal, on average globally. about.bnef.com/insights/cle...

05.03.2026 18:30 πŸ‘ 34 πŸ” 22 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 2
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The Role of Near Solstice Solar Radiation on the Pacific Northwest Heatwave of June 2021 The record-breaking Pacific Northwest heatwave of 2021 occurred near summer solstice, affecting the extent of broken temperature records An otherwise identical heatwave with solar radiation of 60...

Speaking of heatwaves, this new paper from UBC colleagues analyses a curious aspect of the deadly 2021 heat dome: the timing. It happened near the June solstice, rather than in mid-summer, and the longer daylength contributed to its severity. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

04.03.2026 18:43 πŸ‘ 17 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Vital Connections: Critical Infrastructure and Climate Risk
Vital Connections: Critical Infrastructure and Climate Risk YouTube video by Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions

I appreciated playing a tiny part in this great @picscanada.bsky.social explainer video on how extreme weather affects critical infrastructure, and what we can do. It draws on the experience with heat waves, wildfires, and atmospheric river flooding in B.C. www.youtube.com/watch?v=2YZJ...

04.03.2026 18:37 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

If the economy is so dependent on oil that it requires a war in the Middle East or some other devastating exogenous event to buoy oil prices and come closer to balancing budgets, maybe we're not making the best decisions.

03.03.2026 20:54 πŸ‘ 22 πŸ” 7 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Deja Vu   from Top Secret - Short Edit
Deja Vu from Top Secret - Short Edit YouTube video by Westralia

youtu.be/Zv4ZiINQxA0?...

27.02.2026 19:13 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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I think you misspelled Bush and Iraq.

27.02.2026 19:11 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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One of the biggest obstacles to climate action is "second order" bias: we tend to mistakenly assume other people aren't interested in the subject. From a CBC Kids show:

27.02.2026 01:17 πŸ‘ 26 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Why this climate scientist says hope matters
Why this climate scientist says hope matters YouTube video by CBC Kids News

Hope is form of climate action. I recorded this message for the CBC Kids show "Hope or Nope":
www.youtube.com/watch?v=O7WH...

21.02.2026 00:54 πŸ‘ 21 πŸ” 9 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 2
NIRVANNA THE BAND THE SHOW THE MOVIE - Official Trailer - In Theaters February 13
NIRVANNA THE BAND THE SHOW THE MOVIE - Official Trailer - In Theaters February 13 YouTube video by NEON

This is the best movie we have seen in quite some time. Hilarious, gonzo, oddly touching in moments. It hits even harder if you are from Toronto, it's like an accidental love letter to the city. Fellow Canadians, please go support local cinema... www.youtube.com/watch?v=y2K9...

17.02.2026 02:18 πŸ‘ 18 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

That's not the fault of the modellers at the govt or other orgs. It is legitimately difficult work. And if policies aren't sufficiently detailed, you have to make assumptions. Say there is a target, but no policy mechanisms as of yet... you may need to assume the target is met.

14.02.2026 01:29 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Canada is not on track to meet any of its climate targets, a new study says A new study published Friday by the Canadian Climate Institute says Canada is not on track to meet any of its climate targets β€” not the 2026 interim emissions reduction target, the 2030 Paris Agreemen...

Further confirmation that Canada's far off track from its 2030 target. As I mention here, the models tend to overestimate the impact of climate policies, because they represent an idealized world in which policies are fully implemented and work as intended.
www.ctvnews.ca/climate-and-...

14.02.2026 01:29 πŸ‘ 25 πŸ” 17 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 0
Simon Donner, second from left, a climate scientist and professor at the University of British Columbia, stands with three other panellists behind a podium (CBC Kids News)

Simon Donner, second from left, a climate scientist and professor at the University of British Columbia, stands with three other panellists behind a podium (CBC Kids News)

β€œI think the climate scientists and activists of my generation have done a great disservice to the next generation because we have scared the crap out of them...”

@simondonner.bsky.social stresses the importance of hope when it comes to climate change

buff.ly/UHMAeQl

09.02.2026 19:00 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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WATCH β€” We asked 100 kids how hopeful they are about their futures In a townhall meets game show, CBC Kids News asks 100 kids in Vancouver, British Columbia, about their futures. Are they hopeful?

Climate change blames individuals when it is big corporations at fault, say teens. @simondonner.bsky.social was one of the experts at the event. www.cbc.ca/kidsnews/pos... via @cbcnews.ca @ubcgeography.bsky.social @ires.ubc.ca

04.02.2026 16:26 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Red hats sweeping the U.S. as resistance knitters embrace 'melt the ICE' pattern | CBC News If the marching resistance to U.S. President Donald Trump's first term had a colour, it was probably pussy-hat pink. But knitted protest headwear has a new look in 2026, thanks to the popularity of a ...

So glad to see the growing resistance to the unlawful and despicable behaviour of ICE... though melt the ice is a tough rallying cry if you are climate scientist. www.cbc.ca/news/world/r...

03.02.2026 23:41 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Years ago, when a severe storm closed the road to the family cottage, I drove down a distant dirt road I'd never been on, ditched the car, and navigating several miles through a forest and wetland back to the cottage, without a phone, GPS or map. Yet I can't seem to cancel an online subscription.

02.02.2026 20:25 πŸ‘ 18 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 1
Bruce Springsteen - Streets Of Minneapolis (Official Audio)
Bruce Springsteen - Streets Of Minneapolis (Official Audio) YouTube video by Bruce Springsteen

youtube.com/watch?v=wWKS...

29.01.2026 02:12 πŸ‘ 9 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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What the China-Canada EV Trade Deal Really Means Rob talks with McMaster University engineering professor Greig Mordue, then checks in with Heatmap contributor Andrew Moseman on the EVs to watch out for.

If you're interested in the implications of the Canada-China deal that cuts tariffs on some Chinese EVs, I recommend this episode of Shift Key heatmap.news/podcast/shif...

28.01.2026 22:26 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Record investment in clean energy last year. Electrified transport, renewable electricity generation and electricity grids accounted for 90% of investment, with transport up 20% despite all the talk in North America of things slowing down.

From: about.bnef.com/insights/fin...

27.01.2026 14:56 πŸ‘ 11 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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International Day of Clean Energy | United Nations International Day of Clean Energy is a platform to drive the adoption of policies and practices to promote awareness on the sustainable use of energy resources and to strengthen collaboration and coop...

Happy International Day of Clean Energy to all who are observant. www.un.org/en/observanc...

27.01.2026 14:45 πŸ‘ 10 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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India Is Electrifying Faster Than China Using Cheap Green Tech Developing countries are taking advantage of falling prices for solar, wind and batteries.

Yet more reason to trust projections that global oil demand will soon level off and decline
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

25.01.2026 01:09 πŸ‘ 27 πŸ” 11 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Photograph depicting wave impact on the lagoon-facing shoreline in Bikenibeu, Tarawa, on February 24, 2005. Photo: Julia Mayer Not all waves are created equal. Analysis of #Kiribati’s Tarawa lagoon shorelines show future flooding risk will not be uniform across the atoll based on wave direction line up. https://oceans.ubc.ca/2026/01/21/not-all-waves-are-created-equal/ @simondonner #JuliaMayer @UBCGeog @ubcires

Photograph depicting wave impact on the lagoon-facing shoreline in Bikenibeu, Tarawa, on February 24, 2005. Photo: Julia Mayer Not all waves are created equal. Analysis of #Kiribati’s Tarawa lagoon shorelines show future flooding risk will not be uniform across the atoll based on wave direction line up. https://oceans.ubc.ca/2026/01/21/not-all-waves-are-created-equal/ @simondonner #JuliaMayer @UBCGeog @ubcires

Not all waves are created equal. Analysis of #Kiribati’s Tarawa lagoon shorelines show future flooding risk will not be uniform across the atoll based on wave direction line up. oceans.ubc.ca/2026/01/21/n... @simondonner.bsky.social #JuliaMayer @ubcgeography.bsky.social @ires.ubc.ca

21.01.2026 18:22 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1

My calculation is based on sales from 3rd quarter of 2025, which is after the big decline (from letting the rebates expire). So, yes, sales would still be below previous levels of nothing else changes.

17.01.2026 03:13 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

It's a pretty small dent in sales, not a EV strategy on its own... my math involved some very generous assumptions (Chinese EVs replace gas vehicle sales, the 49,000 is per year, etc).

16.01.2026 21:12 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

How would the new deal to cut tariffs on up to 49,000 Chinese EVs affect uptake? By my math, in the maximum case, battery EVs would move from 5.5% of sales to 8.1% of sales. This is potentially a *small* start of a much-needed overhaul of EV strategy in Canada. What comes next matters the most.

16.01.2026 20:06 πŸ‘ 26 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 0

Sure, but breaking records every year creates a trend...

15.01.2026 00:22 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Client Challenge

I say "steady" because there is less year-to-year natural variability in total ocean heat content than in air temperatures. The figure is from a new paper in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences: link.springer.com/article/10.1...

14.01.2026 17:45 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Because the ocean absorbs >90% of the heat trapped in the climate system due to human enhancement of the greenhouse effect, the best and most steady measure of global warming is the change in ocean heat content.

It continues to break records every year:

14.01.2026 17:45 πŸ‘ 28 πŸ” 21 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 1

This is from the HadCRUT5 (UK dataset). Other datasets have similar orders. Before 1850, global average temperature is estimated via proxies, rather than direct measurements, and annual values have greater uncertainty.

14.01.2026 17:06 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Warmest years, in order, since records began in 1800s. Seeing a pattern here...
2024
2023
2025
2016
2020
2019
2017
2015
2022
2021
2018
2010
2014
2013
2005
2009
2007
1998
2012
2006
2002
2003
2011
2001

14.01.2026 17:06 πŸ‘ 17 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

I recommend reading the article. The issue isn't that the world won't need oil, but that the market for Canadian heavy oil is predicted to decline sharply.

13.01.2026 19:46 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0