It’s joint probability vs conditional probability. So calculating the odds of winning twice from the get go is 45 million x 45 million. That’s the joint probability. But you are absolutely right - if someone has already won - winning again is 1 in 45 million - so both answers are correct - ish!
Afon Glaslyn in full flow as it rises along Stryd Gwynant in Beddgelert. Green footbridge in view with foaming river running below, and housing at the side
I may be a little damp today. Watching river levels rise in Beddgelert, Gwynedd.
My pleasure. If you've not spotted it yet on NRW site - it is here: cdn.cyfoethnaturiol.cymru/4bqlg3ic/nrw...
It is a very thorough report - listing 2995 species at peril - mostly invertebrates. Shockingly 1200 are now found at only one location in Wales. There are 135 species alone at Newborough at risk I have asked NRW to tell me when it is publicly available - and will get the online team to link to it.
And read the 200 page report. And interviewed one of the authors, and the NRW strategic lead, and an expert at Bangor Uni. And been down to Newborough Warren to see some of the work. I’m told the report should be made public today.
It’s been a long and emotional day for many - my thoughts are with Ethan’s family - and a deep respect for the officers who brought this young child’s killers to justice. www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/ce...
Hello Covid my old friend…
Absolutely worth a stop - fantastic place with some lovely restaurants and an amazing walk around the ramparts!
so @campfiresocial.bsky.social have had a new ace animated video done for Atrophy, taken from their lp 'They Sound The Same Underwater' which we've released on Cream Vinyl 12". Go watch and enjoy here :
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mebc...
Went to see Mr Burton last night - a real pleasure - definitely worth a watch. Double bonus was to see it in Galeri in Caernarfon - a gem of place. youtu.be/h6Trx84-gy4?...
If our awesome #community could give us a share, we would really appreciate it. we are really close to 3000 followers! #like #share #repost
Thanks in advance for you on going support x
Landscape image looking down from a mound to a lake surrounded by forest, with a blue sky peppered with mackrel clouds
Not a bad lunch spot. All to ourselves. Got to love living in this area.
Loved this - had it on a mix tape recorded off Piccadilly Radio - Tony the Greek - show!
Wasn’t an option sadly - and I’d rather be sipping du vin 🍷in south of France over wedding anniversary!
Portrait of me wearing cold weather blue running top and black gillet. With the Pont Du Gard aqueduct in the background.
First run attempt of the year. Tough. But a pretty fine backdrop.
If you mean that arc of fire heading towards you - there was a terrible beauty!
Eight people lined up wearing full public order PPE
Arc de Triumph, Paris
Been a bit of a week. From being petrol bombed on a training course - to Paris for a break. Lush.
Insightful look into UK debt, how we got there, and what it means. Certainly leaves you asking questions, such as who actually decides the interest rates to pay back that debt. And that is a whole other can of worms.
More amazing news this morning. Congratulations to Sam Dabb and everyone at Le Pub
The Welsh music venue will now be placed into permanent protected status after its acquisition by Music Venue Properties
Absolutely made-up for @lepub.bsky.social and Sam Dabb - officially bought after the @musicvenuetrust.bsky.social campaign. Great news for the future of grassroots music in south Wales. I met Katie Hall from @chromabanduk.bsky.social when the campaign was launched: www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-w...
Why does culture and sport matter? I reflect on some of the findings of a Senedd report on BBC Wales Today this evening. Bottom line - sport and culture are good for your physical and mental health - and save health services a fortune. Does Wales need to spend more? senedd.wales/media/ekumt3...
Was absolutely enchanted by this piece - knew some - and was also educated. Proper interesting look at some influential post-punk: youtu.be/z1no60Ju-X4?...
Bowl of chicken and bean stew with rice in a white bowl on a slate placemat
Another prepped meal marvel - chicken and bean stew - with brown rice - also leftovers! We haven’t done a ‘big’ shop for over a week!
Bubbling pot of chilli in a large pan
One of my ambitions this year is to cut down our food waste. My cunning plan is this: eat the food we buy. Tonight - it’s a chilli - frozen two weeks ago.
A break in the weather meant we got a New Year’s day stroll - #Savi the dog was delighted - and we paid a visit to this striking fella
Merry Christmas to all
Rhaglen wych, sy'n rhoi tŵf cerddoriaeth Gymraeg a Cymreig y 90au yn ei gyd-destun.
If you want to understand where and how the 'Cool Cymru' era began, watch this. English subtitles available.
www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/epis...
Power is back on - yay. Boiler doesn’t agree. Bah!
1st world problems. Have food, water and shelter. It’s like an unexpected camping adventure.
Front room with candes and gas fire and fairy lights.
Day 2 without power… looks cosy. But not a lot of heat - no hot water - and need to find batteries and recharge things tomorrow. Apparently it’ll be another day until this is sorted. Job tomorrow - empty out the freezer. And find a shower…
