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Andy de Barros

@andydebarros

https://de-barros.com/ program evaluation, education policy, development economics

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19.09.2023
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Latest posts by Andy de Barros @andydebarros

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Happy to share: “Economic Empowerment and Mental Health: Evidence from India” (with Sulagna Mookerjee) is accepted at Economic Development and Cultural Change :) Full Paper: www.ajinkyakeskar.com/files/MHDraf...

19.02.2026 18:59 👍 6 🔁 2 💬 1 📌 0
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I've built a new tool!

You can upload your pre-analysis plan or registered report, pre-submission to a registry or journal, and it will screen it for completeness, clarity, and consistency. 1/ 🧵

13.02.2026 20:21 👍 31 🔁 14 💬 3 📌 2
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Why Do Most Education Interventions Fade Out Over Time? There is evidence both to explain and complicate the “fadeout effect”

Why do educational intervention impacts fade? Isn't catch-up a good thing? Are sleeper effects real? Does fadeout mean failure?

@drewhalbailey.bsky.social, Tyler Watts, and I address these questions & more in an EdNext piece & 4 new working papers!

www.educationnext.org/why-do-most-...

12.02.2026 23:47 👍 12 🔁 4 💬 1 📌 1
It must be very hard to publish null results
Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.

It must be very hard to publish null results Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.

I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.

11.02.2026 17:00 👍 643 🔁 223 💬 30 📌 51

You're right, one does not necessarily imply the other; was running out of characters. Here'a link to my JMP, which I framed as being about school choice and sorting, but is also about tracking (across schools). We don't have a WP for the classroom tracking yet. Link to my JMP (accepted at ReStat):

05.02.2026 02:01 👍 4 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0
Two screenshots of Economist articles: One praises the potential of EdTech, the other says it is "mostly useless".

Two screenshots of Economist articles: One praises the potential of EdTech, the other says it is "mostly useless".

Updating my slides on why asking "Does EdTech work?" is useless

www.economist.com/leaders/2017...

www.economist.com/united-state...

For far more helpful takes:

www.brookings.edu/articles/rea...

voxdev.org/voxdevlit/ed...

23.01.2026 16:55 👍 5 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

All #econjobmarket tips in one place: https://statatexblog.com/useful-links/#from-graduate-to-post-graduate-the-econ-job-market

16.01.2026 16:18 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
Weiss Fellowship for Junior Researchers in Low- and Middle-Income Countries - Weiss Fund The Weiss Fund Fellowship provides supplementary financial support for exceptional job market PhD candidates accepting positions in Weiss Fund-eligible countries and doing work aligned with the Weiss ...

The Weiss Fund has a great new initiative for development economists on the PhD job market to support those taking up research positions in LMICs, offering supplementary income + research funds. Please share!

15.01.2026 19:22 👍 32 🔁 28 💬 0 📌 0

New publication in The Economic Journal “Qualitative Analysis With Large-N: A New Method with An Application to Aspirations in Bangladesh.”https://academic.oup.com/ej/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/ej/ueag005/8417166?redirectedFrom=fulltext Also available here vijayendrarao.org/wp-content/u...

12.01.2026 08:34 👍 5 🔁 2 💬 1 📌 0
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Computer-assisted learning in the real world: How Khan Academy influences student math learning

doi.org/10.1073/pnas...

06.01.2026 05:55 👍 10 🔁 3 💬 0 📌 0
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Brand-new findings w/ a large team show that multicomponent intervention targeting widespread violence in schools in Zambia does ⬆️ student discussions about violence in schools, but does not shift violence itself
ideas.repec.org/p/wb...

05.01.2026 19:04 👍 3 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0
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Human capital is central to growth, and the elimination of poverty. Discussing obstacles to human capital accumulation and evidence on policies that can promote it, from Philippe Aghion, Ingvild Almås, and Costas Meghir www.nber.org/papers/w34602

30.12.2025 14:00 👍 16 🔁 8 💬 0 📌 3
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I often hear about how tough it is for kids to learn to read in a language they don't understand. True!

Also tough for kids to learn to read from a teacher who doesn't speak the language they're supposed to be teaching in. wiki.santafe.edu/images/e/ec/...

29.12.2025 22:12 👍 22 🔁 4 💬 0 📌 0
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Lasting change requires more than cash—interventions adding information meetings and home visits produce real, sustained gains for mothers and children, from Richard Akresh, Damien de Walque, Harounan Kazianga, and Abigail Stocker www.nber.org/papers/w34578

21.12.2025 20:01 👍 13 🔁 4 💬 0 📌 0
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Evaluating a soft-skills course implemented in Ugandan and Kenyan primary schools that replaced academic review time with lessons on goal-setting and related skills as students prepared for primary school-leaving exams, from Dam, Gray-Lobe, Kremer, de Laat, and Morsink www.nber.org/papers/w34562

18.12.2025 20:02 👍 3 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0
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Woah.

Argentina's 1990s preschool expansion program appears to have been a smashing success.

The program increased high school completion by a whole 11.9 percentage points.

The authors estimate that for every $1 spent, the preschool expansion generated about $11 in benefits.

15.12.2025 13:45 👍 136 🔁 50 💬 3 📌 6
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My friend Xu has a WP out!
He and prof Zhengwei use CEPS data to show private tutoring exacerbates inequality via the "rat race": intense competition degrades class atmosphere and demotivates non-tutored peers, causing them to give up
Link here papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

15.12.2025 12:25 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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Pre-school in Africa works.

"on average, these programmes are successful in improving children's cognitive outcomes by 0.10 standard deviations (p-value < 0.01) [and] children's socioemotional development by 0.09 standard deviations (p-value < 0.01)."

academic.oup.com/jae/advance-...

15.12.2025 13:57 👍 3 🔁 4 💬 1 📌 0

The EdDev Community Group will meet tomorrow at 11 AM ET. Alejandro Ganimian will present work in progress. Join the EdDev Community Group today aefpweb.org/communit...

11.12.2025 18:29 👍 5 🔁 4 💬 0 📌 1
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Cool new @cesifo.org paper, documenting "teaching to the top":
www.ifo.de/en/cesifo/pu...

11.12.2025 11:32 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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From Access to Achievement: The Primary School-Age Impacts of an At-Scale Preschool Construction Program in Highly Deprived Communities (Forthcoming Article) - We evaluate a large-scale public preschool construction program in deprived rural communities in Mozambique using a randomized control trial. The program increased preschool en...

Forthcoming in AEJ: Applied Economics: "From Access to Achievement: The Primary School-Age Impacts of an At-Scale Preschool Construction Program in Highly Deprived Communities" by Bassi, Besbas, Dinarte-Diaz, Ravindran, and Reynoso. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

10.12.2025 13:34 👍 6 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0
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Today's cool young researcher #econtwitter #econsky is @palaashbhargava postdoc @UChicago who works on topics related to development, labor + social networks


08.12.2025 16:22 👍 12 🔁 1 💬 2 📌 0
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Education Technology Policy Priorities for EdTech in LMICsAvoid hardware-first approaches. These have consistently failed and are expensive.Prioritise interventions with strong evidence of cost-effective impact:Personalis...

New guidance on EdTech in developing countries, by @singhabhi.bsky.social , @lnavarrosola.bsky.social , and Philip Oreopoulos

This looks good!

voxdev.org/voxdevlit/ed...

04.12.2025 18:05 👍 6 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

I have a new VoxDev Lit launching this week on education technology👇

This area has lots of froth, but also some very promising evidence on tech use (on teaching, assessments, information) across K-12.

Pulling this together was fun (with Phil Oreopoulos
and @lnavarrosola.bsky.social ).

01.12.2025 09:34 👍 25 🔁 6 💬 0 📌 0
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Exciting news on @malengo.org, the NGO that helps East African students move to Europe for education: Our research team has given us a glimpse of their early findings!

Here is the full writeup, joint with @richardnerland.bsky.social:

forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/CpZYHk...

Thread follows!

27.11.2025 02:28 👍 67 🔁 29 💬 1 📌 4
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Do children benefit from internet access? Experimental evidence from Peru This paper provides experimental evidence for the impact of home internet access on a broad range of child outcomes in Peru. We compare children who w…

Not true, unfortunately: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

26.11.2025 06:45 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
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The World Bank Group Reorganization: A Retreat from Research Quality? A recent PowerPoint presentation presents the outline for the institutional structure of “The WBG Knowledge Bank.” But a knowledge bank owes it to its stakeholders impartial and transparent considerat...

The World Bank plans to “operationally align” its research arm. But the changes could undermine its ability to deliver rigorous, independent analysis free from client or internal pressure.

More from @charlesjkenny.bsky.social and @eeshani.bsky.social ⬇️
https://go.cgdev.org/43vNSgK

24.11.2025 20:59 👍 7 🔁 4 💬 0 📌 1
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Can Tutoring—and Technology—Finally Solve Bloom’s Two Sigma Problem? Tutoring and technology are revolutionizing education, addressing Bloom's two sigma problem with scalable, cost-effective, high-impact solutions.

Can Tutoring—and Technology—Finally Solve Bloom’s Two Sigma Problem? www.gettingsmart.com/2025/11/25/c...

25.11.2025 11:54 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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🚀 I’m excited to share that I’m on the #EconSky job market this year! In my #EconJMP, I study how teachers in Finnish upper secondary schools impact students’ socio-emotional skills – and the labor market returns of these effects! (🧵, 1/N)

18.11.2025 09:47 👍 48 🔁 17 💬 1 📌 3

The EdDev Community Group will meet tomorrow at 11 AM ET. Vatsal Khandelwal & Nneka Esther Osadolor will present work in progress. Join the EdDev Community Group today aefpweb.org/communit...

13.11.2025 16:48 👍 1 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 1