Sir, it’s the Food Delivery Index

Canals got what SaaS is getting right now

Comac not fast enough. The tech is aight but good luck getting the certs from FAA

There are seniors who are taking out consumer loans to pay off mortgages of kids with no intention of repaying said consumer loan at death

They are but that’s not due to resi re per se

It will be a legitimate dilemma for people to either choose for continuation of this machination of ICE or for a Socialist President in upcoming elections.

Need supply side rationalization for this to change.

I mean just look at Komatsu business in SE Asia lol

High RE prices was the biggest impediments of MPC (followed by healthcare/education costs); all 3 of which had been forcefully deflated to varying degrees of success (3RL, VBP, afterschool tutoring crackdown). I suspect consumer stimulus will be much more effective this time

I.E RE was unsustainable for a long time until it had to be dealt with; Covid relaxation should have been done earlier but wasn’t done until TINA (full on protests); market reforms in 1978 because there was no other way; domestic substitution of industrial tech because risk of sanctions etc.

Yes the reforms never got done because they weren’t “do or die” reforms (as the market reforms in 1978). I have absolute trust in the party to get its act together when it’s facing these type of challenges, I am a lot less confident on the party doing things when they should be done.

People (including myself) would’ve had similar doubts about progression of Chinese advanced manufacturing say 5-7 years ago as well.

Not $600809 🤝

a good example of this is that the Netherlands, acting alone, could turn off all of TSMC's and Intel's investment by putting export controls on lithography equipment.

I mean are we really going to believe that Too Gun 2 was anything but a propaganda film designed to boost enlistment?

Sovereign Wealth Fund run by Elmo. Trading commissions run through Cantor.

Year of the snake.

Thoughts? Would love to be proven wrong on this idea @nosunkcosts.bsky.social @negativegw.bsky.social

Other than the bunker preppers I do not believe American elites have similar fears (until perhaps recently) about the U.S. government. So it might be that the ‘oh shit’ moment comes later than Shanghai 2022 but with even more explosiveness if this current trajectory continues.

In contrast, Chinese elites were under no illusion about their distrust in a monolithic government at possibly making their lives difficult and had prepared (green cards, housing in Vancouver etc) a parachute in case shit went south.

..and refuse to come to terms with the autoimmune vultural devolution of the domestic institutions that have made the U.S. preeminent?

To the extent that the U.S. is going through the “Brave New World” script as opposed to “1984” script, is it possible that the ‘oh shit’ moment doesn’t happen as people can always blame it on someone else (Chyna bad)…

I think @nosunkcosts.bsky.social has been spot on in his characterization of the pathway we’re on in the U.S. and the parallel with how the process happened in China since 2020 (with Shanghai 2022 as the biggest ‘oh shit’ moment). However….

the Chinese economy and Chinese local governments have become more cyclical and house/land price dependent, making falls in home prices, especially land prices, more painful and requiring aggressive fiscal & monetary actions

Just had a thought - the people hyping up ‘box economics’ (“only 2 year payback”) of Chinese restaurant chains are same as the people hyping up ‘wellhead economics’ (“wellhead IRR of 65%”) of US shale E&P companies. While not incorrect, the decline rate is rather high.

www.rvcapital.ch/post/co-inve...
5 years ago from @robvinall

You would need to structure the bet to be paid out in gold - they could pay you pre-default USD (American Ruble/Peso) if it happened.

The Queen meets the King #IYKYK

This is what Xi did to the tech and real estate moguls in China