Raúl Peralta Lozada's Avatar

Raúl Peralta Lozada

@raulpl25

Data scientist interested in causal inference, Bayesian statistics and data visualization.

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Latest posts by Raúl Peralta Lozada @raulpl25

Technical difficulties: new stream here youtube.com/live/2lcCqjM...

03.03.2026 16:10 👍 4 🔁 2 💬 1 📌 1
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I have added a new tutorial on discrete diffusion models:
github.com/gpeyre/ot4ml

01.03.2026 14:40 👍 51 🔁 15 💬 0 📌 0
Prof. Cyrus Samii | Inference for Group Interaction Experiments
Prof. Cyrus Samii | Inference for Group Interaction Experiments YouTube video by INI Seminar Room 1

My talk on "Inference for group interaction experiments" from the Foundations of Causal Inference workshop at the Isaac Newton Institute is available via their Youtube channel: youtu.be/3hh-bM8YNSc?...

02.02.2026 20:16 👍 17 🔁 5 💬 1 📌 0

It's been hard (it's being hard?) to learn how to make human connections. It's still a learnable skill.

17.01.2026 16:24 👍 31 🔁 7 💬 3 📌 0
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We just released Polars 1.37, here are the highlights:

Improved Streaming Sinks: 1.14x-1.88x speedup, ~10% of the original memory.
Streaming Compressed CSVs
Faster SQL Ordering
pl.PartitionBy
min_by / max_by (see below)
Series.sql()
Free-Threading Support
Python 3.9 Support Dropped
musl Builds

13.01.2026 15:03 👍 14 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0
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Python Software Foundation News

@anthropic.com is investing $1.5 million in the PSF, focused on security. These funds will make an enormous impact on the PSF and the security of millions of #Python and @pypi.org users. Please join us in thanking Anthropic for this landmark gift!

Read more on our blog:

13.01.2026 13:01 👍 144 🔁 31 💬 5 📌 7

This is a good thread. My not particularly hot take is that there is no causal inference, there is only predictive inference and CI is mostly a correction away from the bad NP-style “a p-value tells me if moving x by one unit has a significant effect” thinking. But like you don’t need DAGs for that.

04.01.2026 22:05 👍 12 🔁 1 💬 2 📌 2
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Probabilistic Modelling is Sufficient for Causal Inference Causal inference is a key research area in machine learning, yet confusion reigns over the tools needed to tackle it. There are prevalent claims in the machine learning literature that you need a besp...

A satisfying read! I must concede that I am fairly ignorant of the broader causal literature, and am a priori particularly suggestible to the claims herein.

arxiv.org/abs/2512.23408
'Probabilistic Modelling is Sufficient for Causal Inference'
- Bruno Mlodozeniec, David Krueger, Richard E. Turner

30.12.2025 16:15 👍 62 🔁 9 💬 5 📌 2
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New method improves the reliability of statistical estimations MIT researchers developed a method that generates more accurate uncertainty measures for certain types of estimation. This could help improve the reliability of data analyses in areas like economics, ...

I’m excited that MIT News covered our new paper on confidence intervals for associations in spatial settings!
news.mit.edu/2025/new-met...

12.12.2025 19:12 👍 23 🔁 7 💬 2 📌 0
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Release Highlights for scikit-learn 1.8 We are pleased to announce the release of scikit-learn 1.8! Many bug fixes and improvements were added, as well as some key new features. Below we detail the highlights of this release. For an exha...

A new version of scikit-learn has been released 🥳 check out the highlights: scikit-learn.org/stable/auto_...

Thanks everyone who contributed to this release!

Let me know what you think of the experimental GPU support

11.12.2025 09:18 👍 9 🔁 6 💬 0 📌 0
course schedule as a table. Available at the link in the post.

course schedule as a table. Available at the link in the post.

I'm teaching Statistical Rethinking again starting Jan 2026. This time with live lectures, divided into Beginner and Experienced sections. Will be a lot more work for me, but I hope much better for students.

I will record lectures & all will be found at this link: github.com/rmcelreath/s...

09.12.2025 13:58 👍 659 🔁 235 💬 12 📌 20
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Courses

Only a few more days to register for my charity regression course on Wednesday. All material, including slides and recordings, will be made available for those who cannot attend live. A few sponsored registrations still available. Registration details at betanalpha.github.io/courses/.

08.12.2025 05:49 👍 1 🔁 2 💬 1 📌 0

What do you consider lacking in JAX compared to PyTorch?

05.12.2025 04:34 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Brmspy: Python-first access to brms (cmdstanr backend, ArviZ output) Hi all. I wanted to share a Python interface I’ve been building for brms that may be useful for anyone who works across both R and Python environments. brmspy provides a Python-side API for fitting b...

Brmspy: Python-first access to brms (cmdstanr backend, ArviZ output) by Braffolk discourse.mc-stan.org/t/brmspy-pyt...

04.12.2025 11:26 👍 7 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0
pandas 3.0 rc demo

pandas 3.0 rc demo

😱🙀 The pandas 3.0 release-candidate is here!

💥 Will it break your code?

💡 Test it with `uv pip install -U --pre pandas` to find out!

🌊🦄 Narwhals users can relax, everything's taken care of for you, no need to do anything ☺️

04.12.2025 14:47 👍 3 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0
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Oh boy, you can bet we are cooking the coolest profiler for Python 3.15 👨‍🍳🔥

02.12.2025 21:42 👍 61 🔁 12 💬 3 📌 1
LinkedIn This link will take you to a page that’s not on LinkedIn

Here are two examples on causal inference and through the lens of probabilistic programming languages (PPLs):

- Introduction to Causal Inference with PPLs juanitorduz.github.io/intro_causal...

- Causal Inference with Multilevel Models: juanitorduz.github.io/ci_multilevel/

Implementations in PyMC.

29.11.2025 09:58 👍 4 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

this is happening on Friday!

25.11.2025 16:14 👍 41 🔁 19 💬 2 📌 1
Scaling Probabilistic Models with Variational Inference
Scaling Probabilistic Models with Variational Inference YouTube video by PyData

Here is the recording of my talk

PyData Berlin 2025: Introduction to Stochastic Variational Inference with NumPyro

Notebook: juanitorduz.github.io/intro_svi/

youtu.be/wG0no-mUMf0?...

#pydata #berlin #bayes

23.11.2025 18:18 👍 13 🔁 4 💬 0 📌 0
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Simulation-Based Inference: A Practical Guide A central challenge in many areas of science and engineering is to identify model parameters that are consistent with prior knowledge and empirical data. Bayesian inference offers a principled framewo...

Simulation-based inference (SBI) has transformed parameter inference across a wide range of domains. To help practitioners get started and make the most of these methods, we joined forces with researchers from many institutions and wrote a practical guide to SBI.

📄 Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2508.12939

21.11.2025 15:08 👍 34 🔁 10 💬 1 📌 3
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Bill Engels - Actually using GPs in practice with PyMC | PyData Seattle 2025 Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.

Bill Engels brought Gaussian Processes to life at PyData Seattle 2025.

From hierarchical models to a baseball performance case study, this #PyMC-powered talk shows how to model uncertainty with confidence.

Watch here: dub.link/Qm1q9ju

17.11.2025 16:46 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0
Demetri Pananos Ph.D - How to Fit a Generalized Linear Model with Fixed Effects (Pt 1)

Trying to learn more about fixed effects. I wrote this for me, maybe this is useful for you too dpananos.github.io/posts/2025-1...

13.11.2025 18:42 👍 13 🔁 3 💬 1 📌 0
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The newest chapter of Think Linear Algebra is up now!

It is about least squares regression, QR decomposition, and orthogonality:

allendowney.github.io/ThinkLinearA...

29.10.2025 14:30 👍 16 🔁 4 💬 0 📌 1
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🎉 The program for this year's Causal Data Science Meeting (#CDSM2025) is now live!
📅 Nov 12–13, 2025 | 💻 Online | 🎟️ Free registration

Join us for two days of talks and debates at the intersection of causality, data science, and AI.
👉 causalscience.org

23.10.2025 13:47 👍 7 🔁 2 💬 1 📌 4
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🎥 The Wednesday conference talks are now live! ✨ Watch them now on our YouTube channel: www.youtube.com/@EuroPythonC...

20.10.2025 12:52 👍 4 🔁 4 💬 0 📌 0
Automated ML-guided lead optimization: surpassing human-level performance at protein engineering
Automated ML-guided lead optimization: surpassing human-level performance at protein engineering YouTube video by Patrick Kidger

🚀 New talk!

"Automated ML-guided lead optimization: surpassing human-level performance at protein engineering"

▶️ www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEhB...

✨🧪 This was a talk I gave at the recent AIxBIO conference in Cambridge UK. A 10-minute pitch for what we do at Cradle!

07.10.2025 13:26 👍 12 🔁 4 💬 0 📌 0
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Release 0.6.2 · skrub-data/skrub New features The DataOp.skb.full_report() now displays the time each node took to evaluate. #1596 by Jérôme Dockès. The User guide has been reworked and expanded. Changes and deprecations Ken em...

⚡ Release 0.6.2 is out ⚡

github.com/skrub-data/s...

26.09.2025 08:48 👍 8 🔁 4 💬 1 📌 0
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Whoa—my book is up for pre-order!

𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥 𝐭𝐨 𝐌𝐞𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠: 𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐭𝐨 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐭 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭 & 𝐌𝐋 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐬 𝐢𝐧 #Rstats 𝐚𝐧𝐝 #PyData

The book presents an ultra-simple and powerful workflow to make sense of ± any model you fit

The web version will stay free forever and my proceeds go to charity.

tinyurl.com/4fk56fc8

17.09.2025 19:49 👍 293 🔁 88 💬 11 📌 4
Normalizing Flows in PyTensor — PyTensor dev documentation

A nice primer on normalizing flows by PyMC/PyTensor devs Ricardo and Jesse. pytensor.readthedocs.io/en/latest/ga...

15.09.2025 20:39 👍 4 🔁 3 💬 0 📌 0

PyMC people: Is there a way to implement a weighted formulation of a discrete count likelihood like the poisson, discrete weibull, etc? In Stan I'd typically do this via something like

for(n in 1:N)
target += ({function}(args...) * weights[n]);

12.09.2025 21:06 👍 6 🔁 3 💬 3 📌 0