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Frederik Pedersen

@fahpedersen

Army Officer. Previously @ Princeton. Latest publication: "Narrow windows of opportunity: the limited utility of cyber operations in war" (https://doi.org/10.1093/cybsec/tyae014)

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Latest posts by Frederik Pedersen @fahpedersen

Raytheon Executive: I know you’re skeptical about buying American again. But hear me out. The MIM-104 Patriot is the only surface to air missile system with a proven track record of success against the US Air Force.

Danish Defense Minister: Continue.

02.03.2026 14:43 πŸ‘ 5842 πŸ” 1298 πŸ’¬ 53 πŸ“Œ 39
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PSYOP 2026: no need to drop leaflets when you can hijack push notifications.
Israel hacked BadeSaba, one of Iran's most popular apps, with 37 million installs, used to track daily prayer times.

01.03.2026 08:25 πŸ‘ 27 πŸ” 18 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 2

Tiniest violins for the many European tax exiles and gangsters who never quite understood how much of a geopolitical house of cards the UAE is

28.02.2026 17:02 πŸ‘ 536 πŸ” 105 πŸ’¬ 17 πŸ“Œ 9

Note to Europeans: The US is (once again) firing all these precious missiles that are also earmarked for use in a contingency in Europe.πŸ™ƒ
If you need further proof that US extended deterrence in Europe is becoming more and more porous by the day.

28.02.2026 12:00 πŸ‘ 180 πŸ” 57 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 4

Rubio’s speech at Munich was a massive free dose of fentanyl to an addict desperate not to get clean. And it worked. Europe is full of suckers.

14.02.2026 09:53 πŸ‘ 646 πŸ” 194 πŸ’¬ 24 πŸ“Œ 34

New piece on the strategic vacuum in Washington when it comes to understanding what a more independent, sovereign Europe actually means.

I worry that even a more transatlantic-minded future administration will adapt very poorly to no longer being able to call all the shots in the alliance.

13.02.2026 16:46 πŸ‘ 44 πŸ” 16 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 1

Come on, seriously, a single speech by Colby is not going to suddenly glue back together all the rubble left behind by the Trump administration gleefully smashing the foundations of the Transatlantic Alliance to bits over the past year

12.02.2026 18:30 πŸ‘ 40 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

If the government won't bail out my crypto losses, I'm going to become an even bigger libertarian.

06.02.2026 02:04 πŸ‘ 1174 πŸ” 184 πŸ’¬ 12 πŸ“Œ 1
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EXCLUSIVE: EU wants defence data secured without US tech The European Defence Artificial Intelligence Data Space would allow EU countries to share sensitive defence data

EXCLUSIVE: EU wants defence data secured without US tech

02.02.2026 15:18 πŸ‘ 55 πŸ” 23 πŸ’¬ 6 πŸ“Œ 7
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I gave a campus talk last night on Trump's first 100 days for the WUD Society & Politics group. A student asked me if I thought that, at some point, we might start to describe the US as a competitive authoritarian regime. I said that we were already there, it's just that most folks haven't noticed:

26.02.2025 03:26 πŸ‘ 6639 πŸ” 1978 πŸ’¬ 84 πŸ“Œ 118

cultural illiteracy is a deeply-rooted way of life for silicon valley's worst actors

30.01.2026 20:59 πŸ‘ 198 πŸ” 24 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 0
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If the US Leaves NATO, Europe Can Protect Itself As a former supreme allied commander of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, I never contemplated the idea of the US leaving the world’s most vital security alliance. But the crisis over Greenland’...

If the U.S. pulled back from NATO, could Europe really defend itself? My latest for @opinion.bloomberg.com tackles that critical question from both history and capability www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

29.01.2026 12:13 πŸ‘ 36 πŸ” 11 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 0

The official policy of the government of the United States of America is that they will murder anyone they want, that they will tell any lie necessary to justify that murder, and that no one who resists them has any rights they are bound to respect.
/1

24.01.2026 19:18 πŸ‘ 8412 πŸ” 2895 πŸ’¬ 71 πŸ“Œ 116
Exhausted Danish infantry soldiers during operation Panther's Claws in Afghanistan's Helmand Province, July 2009

Exhausted Danish infantry soldiers during operation Panther's Claws in Afghanistan's Helmand Province, July 2009

Helmand, July 2009. Danish soldiers resting after 8 hours of breaching minefields and clearing houses. Seconds later, I had to wake them to move forward again.

To claim allies weren't on the front lines is a lie and an insult to those who served and lost.

We stepped up. That's what allies do.

24.01.2026 16:21 πŸ‘ 189 πŸ” 48 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 1

Some Europeans will be reassured by this, and wind down the (cautious) assertiveness of recent days.

But it shows that displays of European resolve move Trump in ways that the misguided sycophancy of previous 12 months never did. It's a reason to press forward, not pull back.

21.01.2026 14:30 πŸ‘ 147 πŸ” 54 πŸ’¬ 7 πŸ“Œ 6

Can’t be emphasized enough that the US-led global order has been to US advantage.

Trump’s complaint is basically: You accepting that we’re No. 1, with international institutions and conventions tilted in our favorβ€”because you benefit from it tooβ€”was really unfair to us, let’s make it worse for all.

21.01.2026 14:35 πŸ‘ 251 πŸ” 64 πŸ’¬ 10 πŸ“Œ 7

This effort to curry favor by acting like an insult comic will be forgotten within the Trump administration in a day, but will make headlines and be remembered for decades in the countries being insulted.

21.01.2026 15:11 πŸ‘ 1637 πŸ” 373 πŸ’¬ 49 πŸ“Œ 11

Trump ruling out the use of military force does not defuse this crisis

Europe & Denmark's red lines are territorial integrity & the right of self-determination for the people of Greenland. They do not want to join the US

Trump has to give up his ambition for sovereign control

21.01.2026 16:37 πŸ‘ 131 πŸ” 23 πŸ’¬ 9 πŸ“Œ 1

It is very naive to think that the tensions over Greenland have been reduced, along with the threat it represents, after Trump's speech.

Latching on to a single phrase, glossing over the rest of it, is sticking ones head in the sand.

Hoping it just goes over isn't a strategy.

21.01.2026 16:03 πŸ‘ 217 πŸ” 49 πŸ’¬ 10 πŸ“Œ 2

Attn news commentators: Trump saying he could use force to obtain Greenland but won’t is not Trump saying he won’t use force to obtain Greenland. It is Trump using force as a threat to obtain Greenland. That is why he mentions it.

21.01.2026 14:16 πŸ‘ 6924 πŸ” 1853 πŸ’¬ 154 πŸ“Œ 179

If you're only reading headlines and see "Trump Says He Won't Use Force" it will give you a misimpression of both how bellicose this speech is and how dug in he is on Greenland.

21.01.2026 14:16 πŸ‘ 3863 πŸ” 733 πŸ’¬ 85 πŸ“Œ 49

How hard is it to read a book?

20.01.2026 21:47 πŸ‘ 26 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 3
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The Carney doctrine Open comment thread on the PM's Davos speech

Here is the full text of Carney's speech. Very much worth reading.

paulwells.substack.com/p/the-carney...

20.01.2026 16:19 πŸ‘ 108 πŸ” 46 πŸ’¬ 6 πŸ“Œ 21
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Frankrig vakler ikke trods Trumps toldtrussel: 'Vi vil vΓ¦re der for jer' Frankrigs ambassadΓΈr i Danmark understreger vigtigheden af at stΓ₯ sammen.

Despite tariff threats France is sending more military support to Greenland.
The frigate Bretagne is deployed, and Arctic elite troops will follow, France’s ambassador says.
β€œThe very existence of the Kingdom of Denmark is at stake. And so is the fate of NATO and the EU.”

www.dr.dk/nyheder/indl...

20.01.2026 10:19 πŸ‘ 244 πŸ” 68 πŸ’¬ 9 πŸ“Œ 3

If you listen very carefully, you can hear Charles de Gaulle screaming I BLOODY TOLD YOU SO from some rural French cemetery.

17.01.2026 17:59 πŸ‘ 1134 πŸ” 292 πŸ’¬ 26 πŸ“Œ 14

2026 is seeing that the U.S. Army is mobilizing a unit specialized for winter conditions, but not knowing if the intended mission is violent repression of an American city or stealing territory from a U.S. treaty ally.

18.01.2026 15:29 πŸ‘ 2654 πŸ” 834 πŸ’¬ 43 πŸ“Œ 29

I think the White House badly underestimates the strength of the pan-European folk memory of 1930s appeasement, and how deep it still cuts. I suppose this is what happens when you learn in school that WW2 started in 1941 in Hawaii.

18.01.2026 13:04 πŸ‘ 2373 πŸ” 550 πŸ’¬ 55 πŸ“Œ 29

US discourses that frame Europe as in eternal decline that have been embedded in American culture since the mid-18th century have left America's elites unprepared for the potential strategic implications of European integration

17.01.2026 22:07 πŸ‘ 112 πŸ” 21 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 2

I want to be clear about what I’m saying here. The only way to restore credibility as a reliable and safe ally is to totally and utterly repudiate this administration. That cannot happen at the ballot box. It has to be done by the Republican Party. That is the only way to regain any level of trust.

17.01.2026 20:52 πŸ‘ 229 πŸ” 47 πŸ’¬ 10 πŸ“Œ 9

Trump can put a million-percent tariffs on Denmark, and it still doesn't change the answer about Greenland. There are only two possible endings to this bizarre story. Either Trump gives up, or else he goes through with a military invasion.

17.01.2026 17:05 πŸ‘ 1207 πŸ” 293 πŸ’¬ 77 πŸ“Œ 16