World Politics Review

Air Power Alone Won’t Achieve Trump’s Objectives in Iran Trump may learn the hard way that in addition to being ineffective, bombing campaigns alone can actually be counterproductive.

Can air power alone achieve Trump’s objectives in Iran?

The historical record, @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes, gives a clear answer: no.

In Thailand, Anutin’s Upset Election Win Bodes Ill for the Conflict With Cambodia Having won an election by stoking nationalist sentiments, the Thai leader has a mandate to continue his tough approach to Cambodia.

Thailand holds most of the cards in its conflict with Cambodia: a massive military advantage, economic leverage, and a prime minister with a fresh nationalist mandate and little incentive to stand down.

Putin Watches From the Sidelines as Another Russian Partner Falls Since he launched his all-out invasion of Ukraine, Putin has repeatedly shown that an alliance with Russia is little more than a paper shield.

Assad toppled, Maduro captured, Khamenei killed. Each time, Russia watched from the sidelines.

Columnist @fridaghitis.bsky.social writes that Putin’s war in Ukraine has all but destroyed Moscow’s ability to act as a global power.

The Islamic State’s Worrying Resurgence in Niger For the country’s ruling military junta, a recent jihadist attack on a facility housing more than 1,000 tons of uranium is a major blow.

A recent Islamic State attack on the international airport in Niamey, the capital of Niger, is a major blow to the country’s ruling military junta.

It’s also a worrying sign of the group’s resurgence in the region, Tangi Bihan writes.

Anthropic’s Standoff With the Pentagon Is a Test of U.S. Credibility The terms under which American AI tools are deployed in warfare are being set by some men in a room, with no democratic input.

The terms under which American AI tools are deployed in warfare are being set by some men in a room, with no democratic input and no durability beyond the next change in political winds, Kat Duffy (@rightsduff.bsky.social) writes.

Air Power Alone Won’t Achieve Trump’s Objectives in Iran Trump may learn the hard way that in addition to being ineffective, bombing campaigns alone can actually be counterproductive.

Bombing campaigns alone don’t achieve strategic objectives, and can actually be counterproductive.

Trump seems determined to learn that lesson the hard way, @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes in his weekly column for WPR.

My latest column on Macron’s nuclear speech

In Thailand, Anutin’s Upset Election Win Bodes Ill for the Conflict With Cambodia Having won an election by stoking nationalist sentiments, the Thai leader has a mandate to continue his tough approach to Cambodia.

Thai PM Anutin Charnvirakul’s party outperformed every poll in Thailand’s elections last month. Joshua Kurlantzick writes that the conflict with Cambodia was a key factor—and that Anutin now has every incentive to keep it going.

Putin Watches From the Sidelines as Another Russian Partner Falls Since he launched his all-out invasion of Ukraine, Putin has repeatedly shown that an alliance with Russia is little more than a paper shield.

Khamenei is the third top leader of a key Russian ally to lose power in the past two years. Each time, Moscow responded with words alone.

Macron Wants to Put Europe Under France’s Nuclear Umbrella The changes to France’s nuclear posture that Macron announced this week could reshape nuclear deterrence in Europe for years to come.

Macron has arguably gone as far as any French president can on a matter that is at the symbolic heart of France’s cherished strategic autonomy, WPR columnist @rikefranke.bsky.social writes.

For Mexico, El Mencho’s Death Was a Promising—and Perilous—Turning Point The killing of the drug kingpin was a laudable development, but it could undermine Mexico’s already fragile security environment.

The death of El Mencho marks a definitive break between President Sheinbaum’s security strategy and her predecessor’s “hugs, not bullets” approach. Whether it makes Mexico safer in the long run is still to be seen.

In Thailand, Anutin’s Upset Election Win Bodes Ill for the Conflict With Cambodia Having won an election by stoking nationalist sentiments, the Thai leader has a mandate to continue his tough approach to Cambodia.

Having won an upset election by stoking nationalist sentiment over the conflict with Cambodia, Thai PM Anutin Charnvirakul now has a mandate—and every incentive—to keep up his tough approach toward Phnom Penh.

Putin Watches From the Sidelines as Another Russian Partner Falls Since he launched his all-out invasion of Ukraine, Putin has repeatedly shown that an alliance with Russia is little more than a paper shield.

Since launching his all-out invasion of Ukraine, Putin has repeatedly shown that an alliance with Russia is little more than a paper shield, senior columnist @fridaghitis.bsky.social‬ writes.

Macron Wants to Put Europe Under France’s Nuclear Umbrella The changes to France’s nuclear posture that Macron announced this week could reshape nuclear deterrence in Europe for years to come.

My latest column for @wpr.bsky.social in which I argue that Macron’s nuclear speech really was groundbreaking and should get more attention

(and please: I did not chose the title! All mistakes in the text are mine, but the title is not.)

Macron Wants to Put Europe Under France’s Nuclear Umbrella The changes to France’s nuclear posture that Macron announced this week could reshape nuclear deterrence in Europe for years to come.

Macron’s announcement of a new French nuclear posture—including the possible deployment of French nuclear-capable aircraft to allied territories—represents a momentous shift for European deterrence, WPR columnist @rikefranke.bsky.social writes.

For Mexico, El Mencho’s Death Was a Promising—and Perilous—Turning Point The killing of the drug kingpin was a laudable development, but it could undermine Mexico’s already fragile security environment.

El Mencho’s death was a laudable development for Mexico—and a perilous one.

As Eduardo Arcos writes, the killing of the CJNG’s leader marks a clear turning point in Mexico’s security strategy, but the consequences will be hard to predict and harder to manage.

Plus Ça Change? French Anti-Americanism in the Trump Era Anti-American sentiments in France did not begin with Trump’s return to office last year. But they have been supercharged under his presidency.

Anti-American sentiment in France is not new, but it has been supercharged since Trump returned to office.

In a new briefing, Robert Zaretsky traces the long history of French ambivalence toward the U.S., and explains why this moment feels different:

Xi Is Remaking China’s Economy on His Own Terms—and at His Own Risk Those looking for a major shift toward domestic consumption or structural reform in China’s next five-year plan will be disappointed.

Those looking in China’s next five-year plan for a major shift toward domestic consumption or structural reform will be disappointed.

Macron Wants to Put Europe Under France’s Nuclear Umbrella The changes to France’s nuclear posture that Macron announced this week could reshape nuclear deterrence in Europe for years to come.

The changes to France’s nuclear posture that Macron announced this week could reshape deterrence on the continent for years to come, @rikefranke.bsky.social writes.

Nepal’s Elections Pit Gen Z Activists Against the Old Guard Last year’s uprising ousted a government, torched public buildings and left dozens of people dead. For many, the wounds are still fresh.

Nepal’s elections today pit a new generation of political challengers against establishment parties that have dominated the country for two decades, @deepakadk.bsky.social writes.

For Mexico, El Mencho’s Death Was a Promising—and Perilous—Turning Point The killing of the drug kingpin was a laudable development, but it could undermine Mexico’s already fragile security environment.

The killing of El Mencho is the most significant development in Mexico’s security landscape in a decade.

It is also very likely to unleash a series of events that could further undermine the country’s fragile security environment, Eduardo Arcos writes.

Plus Ça Change? French Anti-Americanism in the Trump Era Anti-American sentiments in France did not begin with Trump’s return to office last year. But they have been supercharged under his presidency.

French anti-Americanism predates Trump by more than a century. But as Robert Zaretsky writes, Trump’s impact on France’s political landscape runs much wider and deeper than earlier spasms of cultural anti-Americanism.

Xi Is Remaking China’s Economy on His Own Terms—and at His Own Risk Those looking for a major shift toward domestic consumption or structural reform in China’s next five-year plan will be disappointed.

China’s next five-year plan is set to double down on manufacturing and industrial policy. As columnist Mary Gallagher, that reflects Xi’s strong sense of confidence that China is on the right path, not from a sense of weakness or fiscal constraints.

Nepal’s Elections Pit Gen Z Activists Against the Old Guard Last year’s uprising ousted a government, torched public buildings and left dozens of people dead. For many, the wounds are still fresh.

Last year’s Gen Z-led protests in Nepal ousted a prime minister and left dozens dead.

Now, the country heads to the polls, with young voices for change on one side and a deeply entrenched political old guard on the other.

U.S.-Mexico Cooperation on the El Mencho Raid Obscures Deeper Divides Mexico and the U.S. measure the success of any individual mission—as well as the overall campaign against cartels—differently.

The El Mencho raid last month put on full display the tension at the heart of the U.S.-Mexico cooperation against cartels, James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes.

Plus Ça Change? French Anti-Americanism in the Trump Era Anti-American sentiments in France did not begin with Trump’s return to office last year. But they have been supercharged under his presidency.

A new poll finds that 42 percent of French respondents now consider the United States an “enemy nation.” As Robert Zaretsky writes, that sentiment didn’t start with Trump’s return to office—but Trump has given it new depth and breadth.

Xi Is Remaking China’s Economy on His Own Terms—and at His Own Risk Those looking for a major shift toward domestic consumption or structural reform in China’s next five-year plan will be disappointed.

Those looking in China’s next five-year plan for a major shift toward domestic consumption or structural reform will be disappointed, Mary Gallagher writes in her latest column for WPR.

Nepal’s Elections Pit Gen Z Activists Against the Old Guard Last year’s uprising ousted a government, torched public buildings and left dozens of people dead. For many, the wounds are still fresh.

Nepal’s March 5 elections are a direct consequence of last year’s Gen Z uprising that toppled the government.

Now, on the eve of that pivotal vote, the country is still processing the trauma—and asking if any of the options truly offer a path forward.

U.S.-Mexico Cooperation on the El Mencho Raid Obscures Deeper Divides Mexico and the U.S. measure the success of any individual mission—as well as the overall campaign against cartels—differently.

Mexico will judge the success of the El Mencho operation by whether homicides go down and Mexicans feel safer.

The U.S., however, will judge it very differently, columnist James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes.

Nepal’s Elections Pit Gen Z Activists Against the Old Guard Last year’s uprising ousted a government, torched public buildings and left dozens of people dead. For many, the wounds are still fresh.

Nepal goes to the polls on March 5, less than a year after a Gen Z-led uprising ousted a government, torched public buildings and left dozens of people dead.

For many Nepalis, @deepakadk.bsky.social writes, the wounds are still fresh.