Jeffrey Lewis

And then there is the really famous case.

Kosovo and the Great Air Power Debate

We also experienced this with Serbia, where air power didn't really start to work until the KLA started engaging on the ground. (Byman and Waxman before they were BYMAN and WAXMAN!)
www.belfercenter.org/publication/...

Remembering the Iraqi Uprising Twenty-Five Years Ago | Council on Foreign Relations On February 15, 1991, four weeks into Operation Desert Storm, President George H.W. Bush, using identical language twice—at the White House and later at a Raytheon defense plant in Massachusetts—encou...

I think one reason that many of us are skeptical that the regime in Tehran will fall with airpower alone is that the US also tried this in Iraq in 1991, as Operation Desert Storm transitioned into the no-fly zones of Operations Provide Comfort I/II. 👇
www.cfr.org/articles/rem...

Again, only one Arrow-3 launch over the night of March 5, this time from Tel Aviv.

Brings the total Arrow-3s recorded since the war started to 16. That is still below the number used during the first night of the 12-Day War alone

More TEL plinking at Isfahan north

At least two more launchers caught out. One spilled propellant along a field, and the other left a large scorch mark on an interior road in the base.

Thanks to our friends at Planet Labs for the imagery.

Better images of the Shahid Bakeri solid propellant plant show extensive damage.

Thanks to our friends at Planet Labs for the imagery.

Khorgu was hit again. This time it looks like the tunnel entrances were targeted.

Unclear whether ground-penetrating munitions were used, but the site is certainly more damaged now. Evidence of TEL plinking as well from scorch marks.

Thanks to our friends at Planet Labs for the images

Shortly before the war I looked at Iranian air defenses & found some weird bedfellows at the former S-300 site in Isfahan: A SA-5 & an Iranian domestic SAM launcher.

I joked about not wanting to find out how well this jank-AD integration would be. Well, we did find out. The answer: not well at all.

One of the Iranian air defense sites where I spotted S-300 launchers before the war was hit hard.

Emplacements for radars and SAM launchers were struck, and many support buildings destroyed.

Thanks to our friends at Planet Labs for the imagery.

Confirmed the AN/FPS-132 phased array radar in Qatar was damaged by Iran, thanks to an incredible image from our friends @planet.com

Debris from the damaged face has fallen on the roof of the main building and there is water runoff from the firefighting effort

So much good information and anlaysis coming from up and coming scholars like @slair.bsky.social during this operation.

This is such a sick burn if you know you know.

A strike on the Assembly of Experts is the clearest statement that Israel's goal is regime change not counterproliferation. I will repeat what I said in June: the operation is a tactical success if the regime falls, a failure if it does not.

Pretty much. Also, Khamenei limited Iran's missile range to 2,000 km against the recommendation of the IRGC.

Am late to the party, but I had not noticed that the US used the PrSM Increment 1 for the first time in combat. At ~500 km range, it's a big improvement over ~300 km range ATACMs given the geography of the Gulf.

Those service members would still be alive if there had been a basic effort by their leaders at hardening/passive defense. No reason to have a makeshift operations center in a war where you determine D-day.

Raytheon Executive: I know you’re skeptical about buying American again. But hear me out. The MIM-104 Patriot is the only surface to air missile system with a proven track record of success against the US Air Force.

Danish Defense Minister: Continue.

👏All ballistic missiles are hypersonic👏

Conventionally-armed ballistic missiles suck unless one can achieve very high levels of accuracy. Last time Israel didn’t even bother to intercept Iranian missiles aimed at passively defended targets. No reason to think this will turn out differently for the Iranians.

St. Paul’s Bones—copied from Devil Takes a Holiday in Burlington.

A History of the Iranian Nuclear Program Sometimes it’s good to back up and ask the basic questions: How do we know Iran was even developing nuclear weapons?

unlocked this episode of Angry Planet with @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social that's a detailed rundown of the entire history of the Iranian nuclear program and its negotiations with America

In case you don't see it ...

I was geolocating the July 2025 Typhon launch from Australia last summer and--even though I teach my students that focal length can mislead--I was somehow still surprised by how misleading focal length can be. Around -15.32, 130.49° at 8:04:03 UTC+9:30.

This is practically an endorsement of Iranian proliferation www.axios.com/2026/02/28/t...

My GOAT is back!

You can see a near miss exo intercept attempt by an Arrow-3 around 1:00

Looks like 7 Arrow-3 launches captured last night.

For comparison, the 12-Day War peaked at 20 Arrow-3s launched during the night of June 13-14

Exclusive: Ukraine images indicate Russia used missile at heart of nuclear pact collapse Images of debris from Russian strikes on Ukraine strongly indicate that Moscow has used a cruise missile whose development led Donald Trump to quit a landmark nuclear pact in his first term, two exper...

Photos appear to strongly confirm UKR reports Russia has used 9M729 ground launched cruise missile (SSC-8 SCREWDRIVER) dozens of times.

Shout out to @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social whose analysis is featured.

Russian deployment of system was a key point cited in USA w/drawal from INF treaty.

The Trump people promised a better deal with North Korean than either the 1994 Agreed Framework or the JCPOA with Iran. That didn't happen then and it won't happen now. They might get some sort of deal, but it won't be better.