3\ My thoughts on this are a bit more complicated than I can get across in these posts so maybe I should write something and make graphs.
Manpower supply and the economic + social/regime popularity costs seem extremely important for the war's outcome. Well worth spending time to understand.
2\ The Bakhmut argument "Ukraine is trading good soldiers for prisoners and that's bad" didn't directly address my concern: those prisoners would be used up somewhere. The question for me was whether Ukraine was doing the best thing it could, considering that Russia would throw those men in to die.
1\ I'm not well-informed on the details of those fascist theories. Sounds like more reading material.
Russia's perceived "value" of its soldiers is something I have considered for a long time. They want to use up "disposable" or "low-value" people first.
2\ @moklasen on Elon's space linked to the video of the column at the time: t.co/6UREojZvtf
The discussion over there also points out how his T-80BVM got replaced with a worse T-72. The OSINT people seem to think T-80BVM are still arriving (for now), but not in the needed quantities.
1\ Russian report on a smashed attack:
"... His T-72 tank ... led a decoy armored column that took the strikes of enemy drones and artillery."
‘We installed mine-roller trawls and acted as a diversionary maneuver to provoke the enemy into revealing their positions...the hero said”
3\ So they knew war with Iran and spiking oil prices was very possible. But they chose not to fund refilling it when prices were cheap?
The logical consequence is that this will very likely hurt US consumers and the Federal budget.
And it was completely foreseeable, so why did they do it?
2\ I had no idea they'd done this. Slowing down the purchases seems crazy to me.
It's a gamble on there being no upcoming oil price shocks, but the party in power were preparing for war with Iran during this time.
1\ Failing to refill the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) seems like a silly mistake by US politicians.
The SPR was very important for countering the shock of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
They failed to, and in 2025 even slowed down purchases when prices were very low.
The American president and the republicans could act on this to honour dead American service members, and prevent more death.
They won't, because to them US soldiers are tools and props, to be discarded when no longer useful and losers if they are captured, killed or wounded.
2\ e.g. if industry weakens and a region becomes poorer. Some of the newly unemployed/poor who used to work in a mine or factory will be desperate enough to take the bonus.
Will Russian society dismiss those like it dismissed others so far?
Is there a point at which it is a risk for the regime?
1\ The questions I have;
- do these "low value" Russians get released back into society at any point? What does that mean, given their violence and trauma?
- can economic distress generate more "low value" Russians who would take the payments?
Let's pretend this is true.
It seems very predictable. What is the US plan if the Iranian regime won't capitulate & the obvious military targets are taken out?
Is it something like:
1. remove the rules of engagement
2. kill more Iranians
...
5. Profit?
US House Speaker Mike Johnson said the US is not at war with Iran and has no intention of starting one, describing the operation as limited. "Trump and the Defense Department have made that clear," Johnson said. #Iran
"SMO"
Brent crude is now up to $91.75 a barrel 😭
Thanks, it'll be interesting to see. Iirc there was ~60m more barrels than normal at sea. If Russia can offload them or more it would temporarily undo some of it sanctions progress, but better than allowing new purchases.
Completely believable. Potentially a huge boon to Russia's war, and saving them from needing to negotiate for a bit longer.
As soon as republicans could, they blocked aid funding to save Russia's war and make Ukrainians die. They stopped all new shadow fleet sanctions.
It still seems like they could have done more oil-price damage but hit other targets. That's what confused me.
A lot will depend on "soft" factors right? How publics react and push governments, what Iranian power players do etc.
I could have a big blind spot there.
4\ Some confusion could be because I misunderstood reporting. One site headline said 1k+ drones had been launched at Israel, but now I can't find it and other stories seem to be reporting total launched at all targets.
3\ what does that achieve?
Likewise, how many missiles Vs Israel make the point Vs using more against the oil industry.
And flying any drones at Israel seems to deliver near zero damage, near zero "We're crazy" benefit, and also let Jordanian+Israeli interceptors to be used.
2\ ...but couldn't you make 99% of the crazy point while also doing lots more damage if more of the ballistics and drones were targeted at oil/ships/bases on a narrower list?
If your craziness is one drone against Cyprus (encouraging more European air defence to get involved elsewhere)...
1\ I could be very wrong about the resource expenditure rates and therefore off here.
The amount of claims I've seen for launched at Israel and Jordan seem silly.
You can say "go everywhere to show YOU'RE CRAZY"...
This is a good thread that provides a pretty coherent justification for Iran's targeting, which I previously asked about.
Some of the attacks still seem weird & borderline counterproductive. Command breakdown and confusion could explain those?
Related and from a few years back.
www.rollingstone.com/politics/pol...
Republicans ramping up pressure to try and force the democracy to capitulate to the dictatorship again.
They cut off aid to make more Ukrainians die and save Russia's war, preventing Putin from having to negotiate.
Now they're lying to everyone to help the tyranny.
January could have been affected by the holidays falling on more weekdays this year?
February doesn't have the same thing so I'm gonna be waiting for that.
Oh yeah they could play games like that.
How would rouble inflation be going in that sort of scenario?
4\ I suspect they're expecting their debt to be worth less. They're not going to seriously try to honour its value and will screw lenders through inflation or non-payment.
At least that option is open with debt. If they sell real valuable things like NWF gold and yuan, it's just gone.
3\ we might not know Putin's true calculus, but just today Russia froze NWG sales even though the law says they shouldn't. They're going to rewrite the rules to try and reduce NWF sales.
They've shown they're very willing to take on more debt even at 14%+ rates for years. Why?
2\ you might think they could keep this up for ~16 months, given what's left, but there's a catch.
The NWF was also bailing out banks and infrastructure investments. Iirc for 1tr+ rub last year.
If they only use the NWF for the budget, then they have to cut investment.
1\ Russian National Wealth Fund (NWF) sold 13.2bn yuan and 7.9t of gold in February for 244.4bn rub to fund its deficit.
I'm calling it - the transfer fund is empty.
No wonder they're changing budget rules to save the NWF.
188bn yuan, 147t gold remain.
