Surf-Metrics

Wave power forecasts
SpaghettiSurf.com

We are literally the most threating force in the world today overtaking Russia in the matter of weeks. We are an empirial state. Our goal now is to take over the entire world one could safely assume.

WSL Meo Rip Curl Pro forecast from SpaghettiSurf by Surf Metrics.

Barbados East Coast YouTube video by Surf-Metrics Surf Forecasts

Sick high shots over Bathsheba Barbados and surf breaks.

youtu.be/CI7bEFbjgtE?...

Barbados East Coast YouTube video by Surf-Metrics Surf Forecasts

More of the East Coast of Barbados.

youtu.be/0_bLrvsX_PQ?...

The Soup Bowl Barbados II YouTube video by Surf-Metrics Surf Forecasts

Few cool scenes from a surf trip to Barbados.

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The Soup Bowl, Barbados

Doing a little surf break investigation to tweak some of the parameters for this forecast. And some point break surfing of course.

surf-metrics.com/SM.DASH/Barb...

The best IMO. We had some trees close to the house downed a few weeks ago. Plus a huge pile of wood chips from the oak limbs. Got plugs and King spawn coming....

Was a really fun event. We nailed the Pipeline forecast for the big day and yesterday 5-6 days out. At least our uncertainty metrics showed high certainty it would be 10 ft+ on Fri and 7 ft on Sat.

Surf Metrics will be doing forecasts for all the WSL events as a way to test our completely free data

Sharing my slightly older surf drone and coastal edits from the last couple of years to hopefully help grow my new surf forecast channel. At the very least some cool visuals of our beautiful coast. Please share if find pleasing.

youtube.com/watch?v=BtjE...

Stunning detail. As a kid I loved maps and arial views of nature like this. Use to get Atlas books for gifts all the time. Then Google Earth came along and blew us all away I'm sure. Time disappears when I start looking at google earth.

Surf-Metrics Introduction (Lead forecaster - Rob) YouTube video by Surf-Metrics Forecast TV

Channel Started. Introduction/Background video. In depth video on Surf-Metrics.com products will be released tomorrow. We'll start surf forecast in early March after a long-planned surf trip to Barbados. Perhaps a quick East Coast surf outlook video before the trip.

youtu.be/INa8GCBpEg4

SURF-METRICS.COM --- SURF DASH METRICS DOT COM has launched YouTube video by Surf-Metrics T.V.

We've launched the Youtube channel with a trailer. Expect an introduction video of Surf-Metrics.com and the science/modeling expert who has 60+ combined years of weather modeling, evaluation and in-water ocean experiences.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bbrq...

They are rooting out all minority groups throughout gov. Mass furloughs on tap and then they will say these people are not needed and Ax them. The memo sent out was clear. They want white men running gov.

A good day! Beautiful sunset!

Love these show Dave. They get me through the workday. Love Ross' commentary and weather and wave dynamics knowledge.

Radical! Can't wait for Saturday morning or that and Fri afternoon.

Can't recall if just running afternoon heats is done. Wind looking good though Sat & bigger NW-NNW swell.

Just have to laugh at those who expect perfect pipe every heat in this chaotic time of year.

Surf-Metrics T.V. It's a new world. Yaupon Surf Visions has transitioned to the best surf forecast tool in the world brought to you by Surf-Metrics.com. Surf-Metrics is a new surf forecast company founded by Rob Gill...

A lot of content is coming soon. I'll be using this as my main communications channel for demos and in short time, at least a weekly wave forecast segment for East Coast surfers.
youtube.com/@surf-metric...

Really cool surf size probability maps for Pipeline. Designed to look like waves and it really shows when the wave forecast has size.

Example here is how this can be used for planning not just events, but think like this is the forecast for your surf trip to Bali the day you leave. You'd be able to plan days, boards, locations, etc with a little more confidence.

Update for this second morning of the Lexus Pipe Pro window. I'm humble enough to know local knowledge is missing here and it could be off, but finding these predictions are consistent with Surfline. Local knowledge aside and focused on the level of agreement in swell size S-M call is marked stars.

This is a simple plot for Pipeline, but shows the point of this whole experiment well. These are wave model runs driven by different meteorology inputs. Spread/uncertainty grows in time. Will be fun to pull out probability with a very nice sample size.

For context I'm only doing 8 on the current SpaghettieWaves. This will really help make probability estimates more robust.

What I'll translate this into as well is a calendar view of the surf forecast where I do chances like precip forecasts. i.e., 60% head high, 90% waist high chance next Tue.

Just sharing some exciting developments. As things code-wise are stabilizing I finally got to the Super Ensemble idea and had the first automated population of the database this afternoon. I'm testing about half of what will be 120 wave model runs out to 16 days. 60 wave estimates for 1 time.

What actually surprised me is the agreement in the newest runs further out in the window. It looks like two potential swells will follow the Tue-Wed swell. Does the WSL run just on Wed and then wait or do they throw in Tue?

Fairly satisfied with the performance and usage of SpaghettiWaves so far for the Lexus Pipe Pro WSL CT starting today. Using the uncertainty/spread in the model runs as guidance we posted last Sat that agreement was inline to run heats late Tue and Wed with wind becoming favorable and 7' NNW swell.

Steamer Lane proxy has been seeded and enough data for a cool look at the extended forecast. Example here is the strong certainty out 7-8 days with some trending slightly smaller, but still high quality. Then high uncertainty past 10 days but hints of at least one overhead swell over multiple days.

Another perhaps more useful bit of information is the window of an accurate surf forecast has only been a week or less over the last month. We could carry this forward and put less faith in current longer-range forecasts as the winter pattern is so active the models fall off the tracks quick.

New "Evaluation" is the past 30 day observed surf (red) and every model prediction. Colors are the age of the forecasts where hot colors are recent. So much info, but this clearly shows the model overestimates peak surf events a few days out and even within a day. Wrightsville Beach, NC

WSL Pipeline Pro window approaching early next week. I think this last shows clearly how relying on a single forecast can fail in many cases. Surfline had Pipe at 8-12 ft for the first day of the event in the forecast yesterday and 3-4 today. Truth, models have not lock into a reliable forecastyet.