Alejandro Parraguez

Hey everyone!

I made a starter pack for Spatial/Urban Economics PhD students + postdocs.

Thank you @tradediversion.bsky.social for the JM candidate list!

Feel free to nominate yourself or other students working on these topics.

go.bsky.app/Jwvpctx

College of Liberal Arts | The University of Texas at Austin Liberal Arts at UT offers over 40 majors and many top-ranked graduate programs in the social sciences and humanities taught by 750 faculty.

We have a great group of PhD students on the job market this year! Check them out, and contact placement director @mikegeruso.bsky.social with any questions.
liberalarts.utexas.edu/economics/ph...

We've made it to Bluesky! Please re-post so others can follows us... 🤘

Thank you for putting this starter pack together! Would be great to be added: @alejandroecon.bsky.social Thanks!

Thank you for putting this starter pack together! Would be great to be added: @alejandroecon.bsky.social Thanks!

Understanding the time-dependent dynamics of migration shocks is crucial for designing policies that balance local and national goals. Read more about my findings here:

alejandro-pt.github.io/papers/parra...

I estimate the model parameters using impulse response matching, aligning the model's simulated responses with the empirical evidence from the first part of my paper.

To capture the aggregate effects, I develop a dynamic spatial model. This continuous time framework incorporates forward-looking households, mobility frictions, and productivity spillovers to track how migration shocks ripple through the economy.

↘️ At the aggregate level, deporting 1% of the population reduces long-run output per worker by 1%.

So, while initially achieving short-term goals like reducing congestion, these policies can have persistent unintended consequences, taking decades to fully materialize.

I use a panel vector-autoregression with a shift-share instrument based on lagged birth rates to capture these time-dependent effects. This ensures robust estimates of migration's causal impacts at the local level.

As migrants move into newly de-congested regions, local economies respond.

↗️ At the commuting zone level, I find that a 1% rise of migration inflows increases wages and output per worker by 0.15%-0.25% and housing prices by 1%—peaking 4 years after the shock.

But migration is dynamic and responds to such policies. My JMP shows these policies can have unintended effects: as regions become less congested, they attract new migration flows, potentially reversing short-term gains.

Here’s how mass deportations could change the housing market | CNN Business President-elect Donald Trump’s plan to deport millions of undocumented immigrations may backfire, driving up the cost of homebuying even further.

In the U.S., debates around deportation and worker relocation often focus on reducing congestion or lowering housing prices.

www.cnn.com/2024/11/19/economy/new-home-undocumented-immigrants-trump/index.html

🚨Job Market Paper Alert🚨

How do localized migrations shocks, such as deportations, impact aggregate productivity over time?

I’m on the 2024-2025 #EconJobMarket, and my #EconJMP uncovers some of the unintended, long-lasting consequences of these policies. 🧵