Warm front arrives in Ontario 👀
07.03.2026 02:19
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Warm front arrives in Ontario 👀
It’s still pretty early in the year for most of the likely rarities to show up… but you never know! Maybe Eurasian Wigeon, Short-billed Gull and a rare goose?
Expect a large push of Tundra Swans, dabbling ducks, geese and blackbirds. American Woodcocks, Merlin, Turkey Vultures and Song Sparrows will also be arriving in good numbers. With warm airmass such as this, it’s also possible that we’ll see some unusually early species show up, especially in the SW
Further north it will still be warm, with highs reaching the double digits. Widespread rainfall is likely across the southern part of the province, which will lead to significant snowmelt and possible flooding
Who’s ready for some migration?!
Starting today there will be strong Southwesterly winds moving into the province associated with a passing low pressure system. Temps will be near 20C in the southwestern part of the province for several days!
It’s early yet to get too excited… but potential for some very exciting early spring weather during the 2nd week of March. Stay tuned!
South winds and (relatively) warm temperatures brought a trickle of spring migrants into the southern part of the province today. The winds are shifting north tonight though, as the passing low moves into northern Quebec… followed by the arrival of high pressure on Sunday… so expect a slower weekend
Some spring migrants showing up in southwestern Ontario this week…
Tundra Swans in multiple locations, including over 100 in Lambton
Wood Ducks in multiple spots
11 Ross’s Geese in Lambton, Snow Geese in a few locations
Killdeer in Essex and CK
Decent early season push of blackbirds
A broad Montana low will track across Ontario on Wednesday after impacting the Prairies earlier in the week, spreading some complex and mixed precipitation signals. #ONstorm #ONwx
https://ow.ly/OF3r50YgbzW
The southwestern counties of the province on Lake Erie tend to reap the benefits of these early southwest winds more than anywhere else, so if you’re furher north or east things will likely be much more subtle.
So what’s likely? American Crows and Horned Larks are the main expected migrants this early in the year, so there will likely be a small influx of these species.
Depending on how things shake out, some Tundra Swans and Northern Pintails could appear in the southwestern part of the province
Spring migration… coming soon to a town near you?!
Well not quite, but for birders in the depths of winter there may be some small migration excitement over the next week. Above seasonal temps are likely for the next week+, as several systems of low pressure move through the Great Lakes region
Potentially interesting setup. Strong winds aloft coming from James Bay for the next few days and feeding into the Great Lakes. Never know what these late season storms could bring down… maybe a Common Eider?👀
Some pretty wild winds & waves on Lake Erie today and tomorrow…
If the snow holds off and there is sun along Lake Erie, it could be an interesting day for raptor migration too
Tomorrow could be a pretty interesting day for lakewatching on the southern end of Lake Huron👀. Sabine’s Gull and Brant seen today… these November blows are a good time to see rare species such as Pomarine Jaeger and Black-legged Kittiwake
The added bonus of most hawkwatching sites along the lakeshore is they are also good locations to spot Cave Swallows passing by 👀
tomorrow will bring a nice weather change to Southern Ontario, with cool temps and north winds. This comes after a week of poor hawkwatching conditions in the Southwestern part of the province. Locations along the North shore of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario should be productive
As you might expect from the very strong -IOD event strengthening La Nina’s footprint globally, this October’s observed pattern has deviated very little from the last 30 years worth of La Ninas over N America
Saturday - Flip flop to high pressure again. Cold temperatures and night north winds. Think north side of concentration points such as Lake Erie and Lake Ontario again. Also due to the cold weather swallows may be drawn to concentration points such as sewage lagoons, harbours etc, where insects are
Friday - another drastic change, as another low pressure system moves in, this one moving from the prairies. Cave Swallows could concentrate along western Lake Ontario, particularly Hamilton/Niagara. Rain could be in play on this day, so that could shake things up a bit…
Thursday - Thursday sees a shakeup for weather conditions. High pressure moves in, bring clear skies and cooler temperatures. We may begin to see some CASW moving south, particularly along north facing shorelines (Lake Erie, north shore of Lake Ontario).
Today a fast moving low pressure system with strong southwesterly wind swept through southern Ontario. Not much rain in the way. The winds originated from the southern states and likely gave an addional nudge to any Cave Swallows in the pipeline.
I thought I’d share some of my thoughts about the weather over the next few days, particularly in relation to the recent Cave Swallow influx (just my take too, so take it for what it is haha)… day by day breakdown in the comments
Tomorrow looks quite promising for a lakewatch on southern Lake Huron! Good time of year for Red Phalarope, Brant and maybe some other interesting species
Nice hawkwatching conditions in southern Ontario today… light northeast winds and a mainly sunny sky
Thousands of newly arrived Long-tailed Ducks were seen in the southern Lake Huron basin yesterday… plus hundreds of other ducks. Waterfowl migration is ramping up!
Things are shaping up for a potentially interesting few days on Lake Huron later this week… North winds connecting James Bay to the Great Lakes, strong northwest wind for lower Lake Huron + a cold front. Definitely worth keeping an eye on from a lakewatching perspective
Wild storm moving through ON today… 20C or more in places, baro down to 992 hPa. Interesting weather for late Oct!
