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Mark Burton

@marhburton

Mostly at Mastodon: @markhburton.mstdn.social.ap.brid.gy I use this a/c to repost from #Mastodon / #Fediverse Scholar-activist. #degrowth eco-socialist. Various topics, chiefly orientated to the pancrisis we are all in. Anti-imperialist. Manchester

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Posts 06.02.2024
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Latest posts by Mark Burton @marhburton

Iranian Light crude, with its 33-36° API gravity, 1.36-1.5% sulfur content, yields gasoline & diesel with minimal processing—unlike heavier Venezuelan Merey (16° API) or lighter US WTI (39-40° API)

07.03.2026 13:45 👍 42 🔁 23 💬 1 📌 13
Original post on mstdn.social

This is OK but not a mention of why it's a GREEN party.
Not a mention of ecological overshoot, nor even of the climate crisis.
I find it depressing this repeated missed opportunity.

I predict a Green wave in the local elections. Anyone who thinks our byelection win was an outlier is mistaken | […]

08.03.2026 09:28 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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Yes we can no we didn’t Those who cannot learn from past failures are condemned to repeat them (apologies to Santayana)

I've been fortunate enough to meet many formidably smart, fully committed, & thoroughly decent people who, for years, have strived to try to avert dangerous climate change.

They failed.

Saying that does not lessen my gratitude to them, 1/11

www.technosphere.earth/yes-we-can-n...

06.03.2026 09:53 👍 114 🔁 51 💬 3 📌 11
Original post on mstdn.social

War on Iran and the metabolic rift. Another argument for agroecology rather than high (fossil fuel) input industrial agriculture. Of course such a transition can't be done overnight.

How the Iran war could create a ‘fertiliser shock’ – an often ignored global risk to food prices and farming […]

05.03.2026 16:59 👍 0 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0
Original post on mstdn.social

Quite right. Close overseas bases.

"Chants of “British bases out” have rung out in recent days in Limassol, as protesters call for the removal of UK military bases from Cyprus’s sun-drenched south coast island.
"Demonstrations erupted after a suspected Iranian-made drone struck RAF Akrotiri […]

06.03.2026 09:20 👍 0 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0
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The US decision to block oil shipments to Cuba is threatening to turn its chronic fragility into a full-blown humanitarian collapse writes Yery M. García from TAI Collaborative on @newhumanitarian.bsky.social
buff.ly/19fAK5R

06.03.2026 16:05 👍 0 🔁 3 💬 0 📌 0
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Crackdowns on peaceful protest
Support for Conservative benefit cuts
Blaming migrants for failing public services

As Labour keeps moving right. The question is: How low do they want to go?

07.03.2026 09:01 👍 601 🔁 235 💬 30 📌 25
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Demand a Better Plan for a Greater Manchester! Transport for Greater Manchester (TFGM) is currently consulting on the future of transport in the city region. Their Vision includes fine words about making Greater Manchester’s transport system inclusive and affordable, environmentally responsible, safe and secure, healthy and well-maintained. Yet the proposed targets and delivery plan fall well short of this Vision. As groups in Greater Manchester with interests in health, the environment, safer roads and better transport, we are calling on Greater Manchester’s leaders to set more ambitious targets. We want them to increase the proportion of trips that people make using clean and healthy transport (e.g. walking, wheeling or cycling, public, shared or community transport). These need to be safe, convenient, affordable and accessible to all, so that fewer people feel their only option is to drive. Please respond to the consultation by 9th March. Just put your name, address and email in the ‘Take Action’ panel, then click the ‘Start Writing’ button to send a response. You can edit the suggested text as you see fit. When you’re ready, hit ‘Send Letter’. The whole process should take less than a minute. Thanks for telling TfGM we need a Better Plan for a Greater Manchester!

You've til Monday to demand a better transport plan for Greater Manchester. We need more than a 8% reduction in motor traffic!!
https://actionnetwork.org/letters/demand-a-better-plan-for-a-greater-manchester?source=direct_link&
#GreaterManchester #transport

07.03.2026 11:32 👍 0 🔁 4 💬 0 📌 0
Original post on mstdn.social

"No vamos a ser cómplices de algo que es malo para el mundo simplemente por el miedo a las represalias de algunos.”

''We won't be complicit with something that is bad for the world simply for fear of reprisals from some quarters."

Pedro Sánchez le aguanta el pulso a Donald Trump con la guerra […]

05.03.2026 08:17 👍 0 🔁 2 💬 1 📌 0

That's one hell of an 'exclusion zone'. And also only the 2nd time a submarine has sunk a surface vessel since WWII. The 1st being... 1982 sinking of Argentinian General Belgrano by HMS Conqueror with the loss of 323 sailors. I wonder how many perished in this attack?

04.03.2026 18:16 👍 7 🔁 3 💬 0 📌 0
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A response to Jonathan Aldred: On the tortuous relationship between GDP and macroecological footprints Is decoupling happening, yes, or no? And if not, could it ever happen? Over the course of a few weeks, The Guardian published several pieces on the topic that may appear contradictory, arguing both that “economic growth [is] no longer linked to carbon emissions” and that “economic growth is still heating up the planet.”
04.03.2026 19:13 👍 0 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

This will be Trump's Belgrano.

U.S. submarine torpedoes Iranian ship in Indian Ocean, reportedly killing at least 87 sailors | CBC News
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/indian-ocean-us-iran-ship-torpedo-9.7113910

04.03.2026 20:52 👍 0 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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Starmer speaks to Trump after UK joins defensive operation in Middle East Sir Keir Starmer says protections for British bases and personnel have been stepped up to their highest level.

Use of the word 'defensive' here is utterly abhorrent. This is why Starmer is detested and BBC 'journalism' is derided by everyone outside the Establishment bubble. This is an illegal war and Israel, the U.S. and U.K. are the aggressors. 🇮🇷
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

28.02.2026 23:48 👍 62 🔁 21 💬 2 📌 5
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🇨🇺🇮🇷🕊️Cuba condemns attacks against Iran and calls for peace.
“Once again, the US and Israel threaten and seriously endanger regional and international peace, stability and security, the effects of which are already being felt in the Middle East region. bit.ly/47ksxbZ

01.03.2026 16:28 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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Russian oil tanker diverts from Cuba amid tightening US pressure - Chamber of Shipping A tanker believed to be carrying 200,000 barrels of Russian gas oil to Cuba has diverted course and is now drifting in the North Atlantic, potentially worsening the island’s severe […]

200,000 barrels of Russian oil destined for Cuba diverted, while a boat of guns from Florida pass by the US coastguard without issue. The US tries to starve the Cuban people to create unrest while allowing terrorists passage to the island to provoke it.

bit.ly/4siPAfx

01.03.2026 16:31 👍 3 🔁 7 💬 0 📌 0
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Prospects for Degrowth: the story so far What our series shows is that despite the storm clouds, there is a lively and pluralistic degrowth movement waiting in the wings, with a life-belt to hand, since it is degrowth that is the only hope f...

Prospects for #Degrowth: the story so far
www.resilience.org/stories/2025...

01.03.2026 17:04 👍 3 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
Why Gorton and Denton is still a good result for Reform It was a great result for the Greens, and a terrible result for Labour. Although Reform didn’t win the Gorton and Denton by-election, by coming second with just under 30% of the vote they did pretty well. In 2024 the combined Reform and Tory vote was 22% of all votes cast, and this increased to 30.6% in this by-election. The remaining vote was almost entirely distributed between Labour and the Green party. As a result Reform could not have won, however that remaining vote was distributed between Labour and the Greens. In the event the Labour vote in percentage terms was exactly halved compared to 2024. But Gorton and Denton is not a typical UK constituency. It is in a large city, and as a result is likely to be far less right wing than the average UK constituency. To say that Gorton and Denton shows how Reform can be defeated is simply wrong. Only around 100 constituencies in Great Britain had a combination of Reform and Tory votes in 2024 as low or lower than in Gorton and Denton. In getting just over 30% of the vote in this by-election, the right improved their position considerably compared to 2024. But they still lost because they had a mountain to climb. In most other constituencies their task would be much easier, as I show below. In a _post I wrote two weeks ago_ I said > “Under FPTP, it is highly unlikely that a combination of socially liberal parties (the Greens, Liberal Democrats and nationalists) can win a majority of seats in the House of Commons, even if these parties could form a perfect pact between them to divide up seats before a General Election.” One comment I received was that “highly unlikely” was too strong. I disagree, and in this post I want to say why, using the Gorton and Denton result as a kind of template. I will ask if social liberal parties do as well as they did in that by-election compared to Labour, what kind of general election result would that produce. I’m not a political scientist and I’ll just be using a spreadsheet in a very crude way, but I don’t think I need anything more sophisticated to make some key points: 1. With current national polling and including their result in Gorton and Denton, the right wing populist bloc (Reform + Conservatives) will be very hard to beat if their within bloc tactical voting is as or more efficient compared to tactical voting among socially liberal parties excluding Labour. 2. This is partly because our First Past The Post (FPTP) voting system is biased against social liberals. 3. The best way to prevent a right wing populist victory at the next election is for Labour to abandon its mimicking of Reform, so that social liberals can again vote tactically for Labour, and for Labour to modestly reduce the right blocs vote share. Gorton and Denton is a useful template because tactical voting _within voting blocs_ worked so well. The Green party got nearly all of the anti-right and anti-Labour vote, and Reform got nearly all of the votes that had previously gone to the Conservatives. In that sense, tactical voting within blocs, where we treat Labour as its own unique bloc, was almost perfect. Suppose that result was repeated nationally. Suppose Labour’s vote share in each constituency is half what it was in 2024. Assume that the combined Conservative and Reform vote share increases by 8.5% compared to 2024, which is both what happened in Gorton and Denton and how current polls compare with 2024. Finally suppose that the remaining vote all goes to socially liberal parties: Greens, Liberal Democrats, Welsh or Scottish Nationalists. This is an exaggeration because the very minor parties always pick up a few votes, so our results will be biased towards the socially liberal bloc. Now suppose that in each bloc there is perfect tactical voting, either because parties actually cooperate or because voters work out which party in their bloc is likely to do best and all vote for that party. It’s obviously an extreme assumption, but it’s not far from what happened in Gorton and Denton. If my spreadsheet calculations are right, this outcome would result in a Labour wipe-out. Halving their vote in every constituency, and with perfect tactical voting in each of the other two blocs, would mean Labour did not win a single seat. So we can immediately see that this is a very extreme assumption. Parties in government tend to do better in general elections than in mid-term by-elections. But under that unrealistic assumption how would the other two blocs do? [1] The answer would be that the right wing block would win a majority of about 250 among Great British seats. The average vote share for the right wing bloc in each constituency is just over 47%, which is close to their current vote in the national polls. The remainder of the vote is split between Labour and the socially liberal bloc, and as a result the socially liberal parties get considerably fewer seats than the right wing bloc even though Labour do not win a single seat. This calculation assumes no tactical voting between the Labour and the socially liberal bloc. But if Labour’s vote collapses to Gorton and Denton levels because socially liberal voters are voting Green, Liberal Democrat or nationalist, it is no longer obvious to social liberals who to vote tactically for. In the scenario above I looked at all the constituencies where the Labour vote was still above the vote of the socially liberal bloc. I could only find one where the result would change if _all_ social liberals voted Labour. This is because the socially liberal party vote tends to be small in constituencies where the right wing vote is very strong, so giving all the socially liberal votes to Labour in those seats does not help. What about tactical voting from Labour to other socially liberal parties? Take the most extreme and totally unrealistic example of that, where there is perfect tactical voting between Labour and other socially liberal parties. In that case the right wing bloc (also with perfect tactical voting) could be defeated, just. Labour and other socially liberal parties would have a majority over Reform+Tories of just 8, even though Labour and other socially liberal parties have an average vote share across constituencies of nearly 53%. [2] These calculations, although very crude, do I believe show two things clearly. First FPTP is biased against social liberals, and second that on current polling the right wing bloc is very hard to beat if their within bloc tactical voting is good. But what about if the Labour vote continues to fall. With the success of the Greens in Gorton and Denton, perhaps half their 2024 vote share is not a lower bound for Labour. Could the socially liberal parties win then? The answer is simply no. Take an extreme example, which is that in each constituency the Labour vote collapses to one tenth of its level in the 2024 general election, and all these votes go to the socially liberal bloc. Then the right wing bloc gets a majority of over 60 among seats in Great Britain. If the Labour vote continues to decline relative to Gorton and Denton levels, with all these votes going to socially liberal parties, the only way socially liberal parties could win a general election is if their tactical voting is better than the tactical voting within the right wing bloc, or if they start taking votes away from the right wing bloc. The former is possible of course, but more difficult simply because there are more socially liberal parties than right wing parties. On the latter, it is conceivable that some of those currently saying they will vote Tory or Reform could fall in love with Zack Polanski, and ignore all the attacks that are bound to come from the media, but I’d put that possibility in the highly unlikely category. Which means that to realistically stop the next UK government being right wing, we need the Labour vote to improve by taking some of the votes currently going to the Conservatives and Reform (or, more likely, by current Don’t Knows breaking for Labour), and for Labour to stop mimicking Reform so that social liberals can more easily vote tactically for Labour against the right wing bloc. That is why the Green victory in Gorton and Denton was important, because it helps strengthen the hand of those within Labour that want to change its strategy. _Starmer’s response_ to their defeat in Gorton and Denton also shows that Labour still has _a long way to go_ in that direction. Those that tell me and others that this will never happen and that ‘Labour are finished’ are in effect saying that a right wing victory in the next general election is very likely. The best way of stopping a Reform government is to make the next general election all about voting tactically to stop that outcome. I’ve read some people saying that the Gorton and Denton result shows how that can be done. It doesn’t. The right wing vote in that constituency improved significantly compared to 2024, and its tactical split was almost perfect. Reform lost because it is a very left wing seat. The Green victory in Gorton and Denton is important because it adds to the pressure for Labour to stop trying to ape Reform. That needs to happen, because to avoid a right wing populist government, socially liberal voters need to be prepared to vote tactically between Labour and other socially liberal parties in a way that is at least as efficient as tactical voting between Conservatives and Reform. As long as Labour acts and sounds like Reform on social issues, that is just not going to happen. But equally the anti-right wing vote needs a strong Labour vote, because it is highly unlikely that socially liberal parties can defeat the right without it. [3] [1] If Labour did better than in Gorton and Denton, and achieved 70% of their 2024 vote in each constituency (current polls have them on just less than 57% of that vote), and with no tactical voting between Labour and socially liberal parties and the right wing bloc support remaining unchanged, Labour would still only get just over 40 seats, but the right wing majority would be around 300 seats in Great Britain. [2] How can this be the case, when right wing parties did so badly in 2024? The first answer is that the combined right wing vote is better today than it was in 2024. If we do a calculation where the right wing vote is the same as 2024, and there is perfect tactical voting in both blocs and Labour’s vote is equal to its 2024 level, then Labour get about 250 seats, the right wing bloc 280, with the remainder and the balance of power held by over a hundred socially liberal party seats. The second answer follows from that. In 2024 tactical voting within the right wing bloc was almost non-existent, and in contrast there was a lot of tactical voting between Labour and socially liberal parties, because most voters wanted the Tories out of government. [3] Of course a strong Labour vote is still compatible with the Green party winning a number of safe Labour seats like Gorton and Denton and perhaps with other socially liberal parties holding the balance of power in any future parliament. Just as the Tory move towards Reform may have created a large number of seats for the Liberal Democrats, so Labour’s move to Reform is likely to create a large number of seats for the Green party at the next general election.

Why Gorton and Denton is still a good result for Reform
https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/03/why-gorton-and-denton-is-still-good.html

This accords with the table I posted yesterday.
https://mstdn.social/@markhburton/116147667663461720

01.03.2026 09:02 👍 0 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
Yellow background. Pink logo says "Clean Air Crowd". The text says "Day 2. Choose click and collect for your next deliver OR walk/wheel/take public transport somewhere you would have driven".

Yellow background. Pink logo says "Clean Air Crowd". The text says "Day 2. Choose click and collect for your next deliver OR walk/wheel/take public transport somewhere you would have driven".

Can you choose click-and-collect or swap a car journey today?

That's the Day 2 challenge for our #CleanAirCrowd.

There are now 1 million more vans on UK roads than in 2014, and 25% of car trips are under a mile. Click-and-collect and rethinking car journeys are simple ways to cut #AirPollution.

01.03.2026 09:01 👍 10 🔁 7 💬 2 📌 1
Original post on mstdn.social

Sadiq Khan - Labour must stop imitating 'Reform'.

"In all my mayoral elections in London, I asked potential Green supporters to lend me their vote so that we could deliver progressive policies to build a fairer, safer, greener and more prosperous London for everyone. Many did, but it only […]

01.03.2026 09:13 👍 0 🔁 6 💬 1 📌 0

It is frankly ridiculous that so many people who’ve lived here for decades *cant* vote in general elections (only in locals) the obvious sensible answer is to *expand* the franchise from commonwealth-born voters to everyone who’s resident here for more than a certain period

01.03.2026 09:11 👍 91 🔁 23 💬 8 📌 1

Yes, Keir Starmer was a "human rights lawyer". People change.

28.02.2026 19:48 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

This is not a reasoned political response. Labour has spent two years making all the voting groups who backed the Greens feel unwelcome and unheard, and now attacks them for daring to back someone else. They believe Labour isn’t listening and Starmer seems determined to prove them right

27.02.2026 16:16 👍 1154 🔁 321 💬 46 📌 28

Such an analysis, with more detail re the actual changes in affiliation will be needed if the victory is to be understood,and repeated.

28.02.2026 11:50 👍 0 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

"Labour MPs say they found many Muslim voters mentioning the name of Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary and one of the country’s most prominent Muslim politicians – and not in a good way."

And not surprising
So what does she do?
Reiterates her Reform/Denmark proposals.

28.02.2026 10:58 👍 0 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

US and Israeli strikes on Iran are hugely dangerous: irresponsible, provocative and illegal. Starmer must call out these so-called ‘allies’ - who are acting as rogue states - and use all UK levers to uphold international law.

28.02.2026 08:24 👍 482 🔁 151 💬 22 📌 8

The first deaths announced from the US-Israeli strikes on Iran: dozens of school girls. They hit an elementary school in Hormozgan.

28.02.2026 11:35 👍 3780 🔁 1620 💬 63 📌 169
Bart Simpson at the chalkboard, writing the sentence over and over.

Bart Simpson at the chalkboard, writing the sentence over and over.

Repeat after me: being bombed to hell is not liberation or democracy. It is imperialism.

28.02.2026 11:36 👍 136 🔁 37 💬 1 📌 2

Clive, your social values, economic perspectives and environmental responsibility are all in line with the Greens and at odds with Starmer. I know switching parties is emotionally difficult, but there must come a point when the question of where you belong has to be asked.

27.02.2026 22:13 👍 6 🔁 1 💬 2 📌 0
2024 2026 Difference Green 4810 14980 10170 Reform 5142 10578 5436 Tory 2888 706 -2182 Labour 18555 9364 -9191 Lib Dem 1399 653 -746 Workers’ 3766 -3766 Party Lab+Lib Dem losses+ WP previous -12211 Lib/Left losses – Green gain -2041 Reform gain – Tory loss 3254

2024 2026 Difference Green 4810 14980 10170 Reform 5142 10578 5436 Tory 2888 706 -2182 Labour 18555 9364 -9191 Lib Dem 1399 653 -746 Workers’ 3766 -3766 Party Lab+Lib Dem losses+ WP previous -12211 Lib/Left losses – Green gain -2041 Reform gain – Tory loss 3254

Gorton and Denton - a rough vote analysis.
Green vote gain (10,200) was 2,000 short of Lib/Left reductions

Reform vote gain (5400) 3250 more than Tory reduction.
Suggests broadly that Greens got the Lib/Left votes and Reform the Tory ones, but some Labour went […]

[Original post on mstdn.social]

28.02.2026 09:59 👍 0 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0
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Responding to the DEFRA wood burning consultation — Mums for Lungs Read our guidance on how to respond to DEFRA’s wood burning consultation - deadline 19th March. This is a critical moment to get your voice heard by the government.

🔥 Did you know that #WoodBurning releases tiny particles that get into our lungs & bloodstream, affecting families inside as well as neighbours outside?

The government is consulting on cutting emissions from domestic burning. Please respond by 19th March, and share far and wide! #CleanAirCrowd

27.02.2026 17:04 👍 19 🔁 13 💬 0 📌 2