There will be people who are understandably desperate to hear this, but it's important to be clear-eyed about Rubio himself and what the Trump administration is doing. 🧵
14.02.2026 12:56
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There will be people who are understandably desperate to hear this, but it's important to be clear-eyed about Rubio himself and what the Trump administration is doing. 🧵
Good op-ed from @kaeggen.bsky.social & Magnus Håkenstad in @aftenposten.no today👇
"To believe that Russian attacks in a future war scenario - that is, between #Russia and the rest of #Europe – will only be hybrid, is a misreading of Russian strategy, with potentially fatal consequences."
🇬🇪Georgia is sliding into a legal dictatorship. Not overnight. Step by step. Each protest is met with a new tailored law.
Each law designed to exhaust, criminalize, and isolate society until resistance itself becomes illegal.
Here is how the latest law changes everything.
1/11
🎙️ Jyri and I joined @jimludes.bsky.social and Mark R. Jacobson on their excellent Active Measures Newsletter Podcast to discuss our recent article on Russia's strategic use of migrants.
I also recommend their newsletter, where you can find links to our article and our Moscow Times opinion piece.
Feels like something cracked today in the transatlantic alliance. Europeans have been swallowing their pride, bitting their tongues, and bending the knee. That strategy may have bought them time but it has now clearly failed. It also had a major cost - it has made the WH think Europe will cave. 1/
People seem surprised that the multi polar world they've lusted after is as peaceful as they were told it would not be.
Odd.
Zelensky: I met with Budanov and offered him the role of Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine. At this time, Ukraine needs a stronger focus on security, development of our Defense and Security Forces, and progress on the diplomatic track. The Office will serve these state priorities.
A new major logistics hub for Ukraine will open in Romania by the end of January 2026, becoming the second-largest in Europe after Rzeszów. It will allow NATO to double the flow of military aid to Ukraine, including through the PURL mechanism, where the U.S. supplies arms and Europe covers the cost.
I've tracked 145 cases of sabotage and disruption @apnews.com that Western officials blame on Russia.
They say Moscow wants to drain Europe's security resources and identify weak spots.
Arson & explosives plots particularly increased:
2023: 1
2024: 26
2025: 6
apnews.com/projects/rus...
Kaja Kallas: what we have to keep in mind is why countries want to be in NATO is because they don't want Russia to invade them. That's why Sweden and and Finland joined NATO, that's why the Baltic States joined NATO, to have this defense umbrella.
This new Hybrid CoE paper is a must-read for anyone interested in Svalbard and Russia’s hybrid activities on this strategically important Norwegian Arctic archipelago. 📝 @thomasnilsen.bsky.social @kariagam.bsky.social & @stianbones.bsky.social
Do not believe anything until the Kremlin denies it.
My favourite moments of this iteration of the ”US-Russia peace plan” were:
1. Dmitriev leaking it
2. The points admitting that Russia does kidnap Ukrainian children
3. The points including that Ukraine shouldn’t hit Moscow or St Petersburg ”without a cause”
(Tbc)
📣 Op-ed in @themoscowtimes.com: "Understanding how this tool emerged in the Arctic a decade ago is a first step towards understanding how Russia leverages laws and human beings to serve strategic goals; goals that may change over time as Russia tailors its approaches & evaluates the risk involved."
A good look back on the 2015 🇷🇺🇧🇻 Storskog migrant crisis. FSB's fingerprints were found all over the operation.
By @kaeggen.bsky.social sky.social & Jyri Lavikainen.
Today's most important read:
"The 2015/16 migration crisis (on 🇷🇺 border with 🇳🇴 🇫🇮) can best be explained as strategic engineered migration and a pilot project of the Russian security services."
By @kaeggen.bsky.social & Jyri Lavikainen
New article out in @ejisbisa.bsky.social ! In 2015–16, Russia’s FSB tested migration as a strategic tool in the High North, using state-orchestrated mobility to pressure neighbours, exploit humanitarian norms, and project influence short of war. Read the full article 👇
#OpenAccess
#hybridwarfare
On November 11, 2025, @kaeggen.bsky.social will defend her PhD thesis “Russia’s Contemporary Grand Strategy: The Use of Information and Other Unconventional Means Towards the Nordic Region”. The defense is open to anyone interested. For time and place, see 👇
www.sv.uio.no/isv/forsknin...
📣 New article out in @defencestudies.bsky.social: "A strategy for the weak: the role of information confrontation in Russia’s grand strategy."
Hopefully of interest to anyone seeking to understand Russia's view - and use - of the information domain!
📣 @siristrand.bsky.social og jeg har i dag en rykende fersk artikkel på trykk i tidsskriftet Internasjonal Politikk om russisk påvirkning i Norge og samspillet mellom tekniske (cyber) og psykologiske virkemidler i russiske informasjonsoperasjoner.
Kan leses her 👇
Veldig god sak av @bergenstidende.bsky.social:
"Havbunnen utenfor Bergen er full av rørledninger.. – Det er registrert sikk-sakk-kjøring over rørledninger, skip med russisk mannskap som senker farten, stopper opp eller beveger seg i farvann de ikke har noe å gjøre"
This comes on top of weeks with intensified Russian civilian bombings. Trump's refusal to punish Putin is met with more brutality. This is the nature of the Russian regime and will continue to be so until they are shown this is unacceptable. 2/2
Reduced US support is not surprising, given the current US admin's approach to Ukraine and Russia. This has been ongoing for a while across fields since Trump's return. Yet the latest reporting on patriots and artillery is painful given the harsh summer facing UKR's military and civil society. 1/2
NEW: Russia conducted its largest combined strike series of the war on the night of June 28 to 29 by launching over 500 missiles and drones against Ukraine.
Read more in the June 29. 2025 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment: isw.pub/UkrWar062925
Morning in Kyiv.
@drjademcglynn.bsky.social "Imagine being bombed like this while simultaneously being trolled by Moscow and D.C. that Russia is interested in negotiations ... for a ceasefire that the Kremlin says will only be temporary and only after Ukraine capitulates territories Russia cannot take militarily."
“Putin remains confident in Russia’s ultimate victory in Ukraine and is prepared to use military force at least through 2025.”
U.S. Defence Intelligence Agency assessment, May 2025.
armedservices.house.gov/uploadedfile...
Lavrov ups Russia's demands on Ukraine to include a ban on democratic elections.
Do we get it yet?
Jeg tror at når Ukraina hadde momentum og større initiativ på fronten (inkl. amerikansk støtte)så var RU mer tjent med våpenhvile - nå haler de ut tiden fordi de tenker de har mer å tjene på å fortsette - og trolig forventer ULR kollaps på deler av fronten.
Ny kronikk ute hos @altinget.bsky.social 📢 Her samler jeg noen tanker fra de siste månedenes forhandlingsteater knyttet til Russlands krig i Ukraina - og hvorfor Russland ikke vil avslutte krigføringen sin med det første.
www.altinget.no/forsvar/arti...
