It must be very hard to publish null results
Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.
I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.
11.02.2026 17:00
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if you would like to teach your kids more about this amazing American, may I suggest FRED KOREMATSU SPEAKS UP?
amzn.to/3OeHcyG
31.01.2026 20:11
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This judge does the thing quoting the Declaration of Independence at the Trump regime then adds for good measure: "Observing human behavior confirms that for some among us, the perfidious lust for unbridled power & the imposition of cruelty in its quest know no bounds & are bereft of human decency."
31.01.2026 21:11
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A deluge of work on regime change after the 2003 invasion of Iraq yielded strong (and rare) agreement in IR: it doesn't work & has terrible consequences. @profdownes.bsky.social's book Catastrophic Success lays it out, but it's right there in the title. www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...
03.01.2026 13:41
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Cool paper: "An analysis of publicly available data of 2,200 experts on Chinese politics worldwide, compiled through a bottom-up snowballing nomination process, reveals that this China Watcher community is globally connected and diverse but also continues to be dominated by male US-based academics."
07.11.2025 16:21
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The Otherworldly Ambitions of R. F. Kuang
The author of “Babel” and “Yellowface” is drawn to stories of striving. Her new fantasy novel, “Katabasis,” asks if graduate school is a kind of hell.
"I’d never been so curious about another writer’s routines, habits, and time-management skills." Hua Hsu asks the question we all have: how does Rebecca/R.F. Kuang manage to do it all?!?
28.08.2025 12:15
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Yes, the new @barbarademick.bsky.social book is one of the most amazing things I've read out of China in a long time. The rare work that deeply expands your sense of people's interior lives.
15.05.2025 21:30
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A few thoughts about today's protests:
1) The April 5 Hands Off day of action clearly ranks as one of the very largest mobilizations in U.S. history, by two different measures:
-- total national turnout (~ 3 million)
-- number of local protests (~ 1400)
06.04.2025 02:16
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