@philuck
Director of Economics Program and Scholl Chair of International Business at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Writing and thinking about all things economics, technology, and strategic policy. All opinions are my own.
Japan’s snap election underscores the limits of economic coercion against resilient democracies. That lesson matters not only for Beijing, but for Washington as well.
@geopolitics.csis.org www.csis.org/analysis/tak...
Page One.
@wsj.com
If tariff threats return or are implemented, the EU would likely retaliate against high-visibility U.S. industries, writes Economics Program and Scholl Chair in International Business expert @philuck.bsky.social.
Read more: www.csis.org/analysis/why...
The Minneapolis protester fatally shot by a federal officer was 37-year-old ICU nurse Alex Pretti, his parents say.
A country is more than its laws or status; it’s how it acts & how its people respond when those laws are violated. Americans have a duty to stand against cruelty and injustice, showing the world we are worthy of leading and protecting the global community. www.nytimes.com/live/2026/us...
President Trump has staked much of his economic and foreign policy agendas on his use of tariffs. In the latest from the State of Play podcast, @navingirishankar.bsky.social and @philuck.bsky.social join @willtodman.bsky.social to discuss what they aim to achieve.
Listen here:
rule of law
Rule of law
Rule of Law
Rule Of Law!
RULE OF LAW!!!
On the latest episode of the Trade Guys, CSIS's @philuck.bsky.social, Scott Miller, and William Alan Reinsch discuss the outcomes from President Trump's trip to Asia, including negotiations with China, the ROK, and ASEAN.
Listen here: www.csis.org/podcasts/tra...
Ukraine's funding gap, including cash and arms, could stand at around US$389bn in 2026-29
• That is almost double the roughly US$206bn that Europe has supplied since early 2022
• EU's ability to help Kyiv finance war will test of Europe's willingness and ability to count on global scene
Fascinating - a sliver of why it's insufficient to argue that China simply "cheats" WTO subsidies disciplines. Rather, Chinese lenders operate in a far more complex way. No amount of navigating control of SOEs will account for this integrated, layered support.
www.aiddata.org/publications...
Live now! Tune in!
🟦 The Capital Cable #123 | 10/23 9AM ET
Join Mark Lippert, @victordcha.bsky.social, Matthew Goodman (@cfr.org), @philuck.bsky.social, and Dennis Wilder as they discuss what's next after the U.S.–China trade war escalates with 100% tariffs and new export controls.
🔗 www.csis.org/events/us-ch...
Today on The Trade Guys: Is globalization dead? Spoiler alert— youtu.be/da3tsiz8hg8?...
Glad to see the US Chamber of Commerce speak up on the $100,000 H-1B tax.
I’ve been hoping the business community would speak up more forcefully on immigration issues. It’s a constituency that will be heard by the administration. This is a good start, but only a start.
The longer the US-China trade war goes on, the more US farmers will suffer and the more it will cost every American to bail them out. We are in the middle of the normal harvest/export season for soybeans. The clock is ticking. @csis.org www.youtube.com/watch?v=porc...
U.S. farmers are bearing the brunt of China's retaliatory trade policies.
Our research shows how the trade war between the U.S. and China is impacting U.S. farmers caught in the crossfire. youtube.com/watch?v=porc... @csis.org
We’re now in the heart of harvest season — but for many U.S. farmers, the outlook is grim. China hasn’t purchased U.S. soybeans since May and total U.S. agriculteral export to China are down 73% since January. Unless sales rebound soon, American producers face devastating revenue losses. @csis.org
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In a new episode of The Trade Guys, CSIS's @philuck.bsky.social, Scott Miller, and William Alan Reinsch examine why tariffs haven't had as significant impact on the economy as expected.
Listen here: www.csis.org/podcasts/tra...
A worker standing in a strawberry field
"Julia" shares, "I've been working in the strawberries for 12 years in Santa Maria, CA. It is very hard work. I get very tired because I have to walk bent over all day long and it hurts my back. But it is how I earn money to feed my family." #WeFeedYou
The 100K fee for H-1B visas (yearly!) is reported as a hit on tech -- but it is a hit on universities. It will make it impossible for us to hire foreign visitors, or foreign scholars into tenure track positions--I think almost 40% of H-1Bs go to universities and university hospitals.
Rule OF law boosts prosperity by applying equally to all, creating a level playing field where resources flow to their best use. Rule BY law lets the powerful twist the state for enrichment, leaving everyone else to pay the price.
Watching this video 10 times has significantly improved my mood.
Commentary discussing same issue: www.csis.org/analysis/how...
The new proposed tariff on semiconductors could raise the cost of AI servers by as much as 75 percent, disrupting data center economics and pricing smaller firms out of frontier AI development. www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0qT...
Watch me awkwardly explain how the U.S. is racing to build the infrastructure for AI dominance, spending over $70 billion each quarter, but new tariffs on semiconductors could make this much more expensive. www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0qT... @csis.org
Today's "strategic" trade tools become tomorrow's immovable fiscal fixtures. I saw this firsthand in last admin. Despite knowing they were poorly designed, we were unable to eliminate *ANY* 301 tariffs Trump 1.0. Once tariffs become industry protection, they develop their own political constituency.
Trying something new. Is US trade policy driving partners to the PRC? youtu.be/Jhs4w_OJn8c?...
