07.03.2026 20:11
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It drives me crazy. Do people really think adding another 500 Latinos to your n would matter if you didn’t survey in Spanish? Makes zero sense when you think about it for more than 5 secs
Hm, I’ve always operated that field consolidation would’ve made 2016 a tossup (although that is very Beltway brain). Cruz won Wisconsin as late as April 2016 and was close enough in so many of the WWC states that vote-splitting cost him.
I still like top-two better because there’s no way MAGA would’ve been this bad without it. Trump probably loses an RCV or jungle primary, for starters
Lee did this irl
(tbh he invented it from first principles and the coup unpopularity, but yes, similar)
bsky.app/profile/corn...
They're also both, from personal accounts, some of the most egotistical mf'rs that have ever lived.
Since I'm doing comparative politics hot takes this afternoon.
Aura-farming handsome center-left leaders of growing economies that are also constantly on fire? Hated by their left flanks, but unable to be dislodged?
If they get locked out of the Governor's race, that would happen.
...Zohran is doing that too.
PREACH
California is very insulated against DSA House candidates because it has the top-two primary, and all Republicans would vote for the moderate Dem. If anything, the New York gerrymander would help DSA way more than the California one.
Progressive is more electable?
Mamdani is also going to have 65% approval ratings next year because of policy consistency (working with Hochul), transactional diplomacy (meeting Trump), radical communication, and a servant-leader philosophy.
Global Zohran-ism
(actually it should be Lee-ism because he did it first)
Bluesky was abnormally pro-Crockett relative to her actual support demographics. Mamdani was the only candidate who really matched his level of support on here (possibly bc he's the GOAT).
One million Zohran vs. Cuomo primaries
NGL, we seem to have another Texas situation where most Mainers seem to like both Platner and Mills. Many pro-Platner Redditors + FB commenters think Mills did a good job standing up to Trump and are only not voting for her bc of age/electability.
Platner is only winning bc of youth support
they did find Democrats were more likely to say their society was bad than Republicans, btw
But Republicans were still more convinced of societal evil than most countries
they did find Democrats were more likely to say their society was bad than Republicans, btw
But Republicans were still more convinced of societal evil than most countries
The NZ First guy whose name I won’t bother to remember is even less interesting so theirs has been slower (plus the regular right co-opted him)
It’s all boiling their minds on YouTube. She’s not even charismatic or interesting, which is why she was irrelevant for 2 decades
There are still Dems on the surveys who say the economy is ok, those answers can always go to 0
Sidenote: these polls having such large gaps reminds of Texas again, further proof that Texas is actually South America
We got two Colombian polls for president with very different results, one with Cepeda +5 and the other Cepeda +30
I can’t find anything for their congressional elections on Sunday, but if the left (Pacto Histórico) does well, then that’d bode well for the presidency.
Idk, when Starmer came in they were intentionally trying to not become like the German stoplight, and yet that’s exactly what’s happened.
The stoplight and Labour are also shedding way more support than the Dems ever did, hence why Harris coming in was so important
www.politico.eu/article/keir...
It’s notable that Norway and Canada avoided some of these disasters by adding new people who could meet the moment, so to speak.
Støre brought in Stoltenberg to the cabinet
Carney replaced Trudeau
all three saw a very similar inability to satisfy the left and right of their coalitions through what was perceived as ineffective leadership.
they also share a perception that they could be replaced like Trudeau and the public would improve
Scholz: Pistorius
Biden: Harris
Starmer: Burnham
They all have vastly different circumstances, but the lack of effective communication was similar.
It doesn’t seem like talking about fascism does much for voters or motivate true nonvoters anyway. Trump and Zohran got to laugh the question off at the White House…
Biden + Scholz + Starmer have all failed to do this.
Yet I’d argue it’s harder to fix than many believe on here, how does one compete with a ton of Instagram Reels + YouTube.
Ex. The Hanson far-right surge in 🇦🇺 has entirely been via socials where she has unintelligible rants. But it cuts through!