Catherine Wolfram

📊 Chart of the week: EU nitrogen fertiliser prices

Exempting fertilisers from CBAM would achieve little while risking climate progress, argue @kclausing.bsky.social, Ignacio García Bercero, @mpereboom.bsky.social & @cwolfram.bsky.social

🔗Read the First Glance: buff.ly/HdgPdrT
#EconSky

Holding the line on the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism Exempting fertilisers from CBAM would achieve little while risking climate progress

New piece out @bruegel.org with Ignacio García Bercero, @mpereboom.bsky.social, and @cwolfram.bsky.social.

In which we describe why exempting fertilizer from the EU's CBAM will do little to nothing for farmers, while weakening an important climate policy tool.

www.bruegel.org/first-glance...

If courts uphold Trump's attack on the EPA's ability to regulate GHGs, climate progress gets a lot harder in the US, but legislation to pass carbon pricing has a procedural advantage since it could be enacted through budget reconciliation with a simple majority.

Countries are responding by adopting their own carbon prices and now other countries, like Australia and Turkey, are considering their own CBAMs, which is like another spin of the flywheel.

www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-chan...

⚙️ A flywheel takes effort to start. But once it spins, each rotation makes the next one easier. The EU’s #ETS and #CBAM have set that momentum going.

Europe Must Not Abandon Its Climate Ambitions Catherine Wolfram highlights three recent developments that underscore why the bloc should maintain its carbon-pricing system.

I'm pleased to share my recent column in Project Syndicate.

⚙️ I argue that we can think of Europe’s climate leadership as a policy flywheel.

Europe Must Not Abandon Its Climate Ambitions by Catherine Wolfram @projectsyndicate.bsky.social prosyn.org/KliboFD

#18 Kimberly Clausing - The Global Effects of CBAM: Quantifying Benefits, Costs, and Leakage - Climate Economics with Arvid Viaene Climate policy faces a built-in incentive problem: countries bear the costs of domestic regulation, while the benefits of lower CO₂ are shared globally. One proposed solution is a Carbon Border Adjust...

(1/2) Such a pleasure discussing the importance of the EU CBAM for climate policy with Arvid Viaene. Listen to his podcast to hear more about our work on the Global Effects of CBAM, with @allanhsiao.bsky.social @cwolfram.bsky.social and
@jmcolmer.bsky.social.

www.buzzsprout.com/2412056/epis...

McCaul, Colleagues Introduce Bipartisan Legislation to Cripple Russian Oil Revenue WASHINGTON – Today, U.S. Representative Michael McCaul (R-Texas) — chairman emeritus of the House Foreign Affairs Committee — introduced the Decreasing Russian Oil Profits (DROP) Act of 2026.

The DROP Act is introduced in the House with a heavy-hitting set of co-sponsors.

mccaul.house.gov/media-center...

EU-India trade deal leaves bloc's carbon border tariff intact A landmark trade deal struck by India and the European Union on Tuesday will not trigger any changes to the bloc's carbon border tariff, EU officials said, despite India's concerns over the scheme.

Good news re #CBAM in the EU-India trade deal: It's intact, and, even better, the EU committed not to give other countries a break. They also committed to support decarbonization in India to the tune of 500 million euros.

www.reuters.com/sustainabili...

New EU carbon tariff pushes India toward green steel Europe’s pioneering tax on polluting imports presents India’s coal-reliant steelmakers with a choice: Decarbonize or risk losing customers.

Yes, EU CBAM pushing Indian steel producers toward greener production processes.

I only wish people would stop referring to #CBAM as a tariff. Tariffs treat foreign and domestic producers differently, while a CBAM levels the playing field. More like a VAT.

www.canarymedia.com/articles/gre...

Anyone in #Canada selling swag off @mark-carney.bsky.social speech yet? A "Take Down the Sign" hat? Or too American?
@blakeshaffer.bsky.social

Read and watch Carney’s full speech from Davos Prime Minister stands behind Greenland, offers veiled criticism of Trump in blunt Davos speech

Yes, totally agree!

Or at least read the transcript: www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/art...

Keeping an eye on this and hoping the EU holds firm on #CBAM. My read is that there's some chance of a fertilizer exemption but that's just the kernel of an idea right now.

www.spglobal.com/energy/en/ne...

McCormick, Warren, Husted, and Coons Co-Lead Bipartisan Bill to Strengthen and Sustain Pressure on Russian Oil Revenue, Help Achieve Just Peace | United States Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban... The Official website of The United States Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs

DROP Act here:
www.banking.senate.gov/newsroom/min...

Trump has ‘greenlit’ Russia sanctions bill, Lindsey Graham says The South Carolina Republican said the Senate could vote as soon as next week.

Graham sanctions bill may be moving forward. Ideally, Graham would work with McCormick and adopt parts of the DROP Act.

www.politico.com/live-updates...

2. Actions the US takes to influence others’ emissions can be as important as actions we take to influence our own. Ideally we do both.

(Here's the whole document with the figure above: www.piie.com/publications...

There are a lot of questions about what just happened in VZ and where things will go, but this is a specific example of two general points:

1. Governance matters. Corrupt regimes wreak lots of havoc, including to the environment.

On the other hand, if oil production from VZ increases without addressing the methane intensity, this will be very bad for GHG emissions.

If we take the 20-year global warming potential, it’s like reducing over 300 mmt, comparable in magnitude to some early assessments of the damage done to US emissions by the OBBBA, but helpful this time!

If new investment in the VZ oil sector helps capture some of that CH4, this will be HUGE for the climate.

If VZ could achieve the same intensity as other countries (100 Gg/Gj instead of 2100), that would be like reducing over 100 mmt of CO2, using the 100-year global warming potential of CH4.

Figure showing methane emissions intensity by country, with Venezuela at the top by far.

Here’s an interesting fact about the Venezuelan oil and gas sector: it’s ridiculously, off-the-charts dirty when it comes to methane emissions.

In some earlier work, we had to change the scale to show Venezuela’s methane emissions per unit of energy produced.

Europe Wanted Its Carbon Border Tax To Go Global -- Is It Working? The EU's carbon border tax was designed to do more than clean up its own economy: it hoped to encourage trading partners to put a price on pollution as well.

I'd say the article answers the headline with a "yes", including quotes from @gzachmann.bsky.social at @bruegel.org.

www.barrons.com/news/europe-...

New York's Congestion Pricing Is Working. Five Charts Show How Nearly a year ago, New York City embarked on a controversial program to toll drivers entering some of Manhattan’s busiest streets. The goal of the congestion pricing plan, the first of its kind in the...

Looks like the initial data on NYC congestion pricing say it’s working. 👏 🔌💡

#TalkAboutClimate

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

EU to extend carbon border levy to new products, drafts show The European Union plans to expand its upcoming carbon border tariff to cover imported products including car parts, refrigerators, and washing machines, draft European Commission documents seen by Re...

More news on CBAM expansion plans.

www.reuters.com/sustainabili...

Really enjoyed this conversation with @robertstavins.bsky.social!

Article notes that "Both China and India are in the process of establishing or expanding their own emissions trading systems. Several countries in Latin America, including Brazil, have also acknowledged that CBAM is a factor in recent decisions to embrace carbon pricing."

EU expands carbon border tax to garden tools and washing machines Changes are intended to close loopholes in law to prevent carbon-intensive imports

EU expanding CBAM to cover several goods made with steel and aluminum.

giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

Households face annual costs of roughly $400–$900 from climate change—mainly from disasters, higher insurance, and energy costs—with lower-income families and certain regions hit disproportionately, from @kclausing.bsky.social, Knittel, and @cwolfram.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w34525

New international coalition aims to strengthen carbon markets "Carbon pricing is not dead," expert says of group led by Brazil with 18 members including China and the EU that have carbon markets.

Faculty member @cwolfram.bsky.social efforts at #COP30 helped lead an international effort to strengthen and coordinate carbon markets reminding the U.S. carbon-pricing is "alive and well" globally.

New international coalition aims to strengthen carbon markets "Carbon pricing is not dead," expert says of group led by Brazil with 18 members including China and the EU that have carbon markets.

An @eenews.bsky.social report on the Open Coalition on Compliance Carbon Markets. (People who have heard me talk about these issues recently won't be surprised that I'm the expert in the subtitle!)

www.eenews.net/articles/new...